STRATEGIC AVIATION ACTIVATION: Multiple monitoring sources confirm the takeoff of Tu-95MS (Bear-H) strategic bombers from Olenya Airbase. This marks the transition from UAV saturation to a coordinated strategic missile strike (2232Z, 2234Z, RBK-UA/Tsaplienko, HIGH).
BALLISTIC THREAT (RESOLVED): A short-duration ballistic missile alert was triggered for Kyiv and northern regions at 2219Z; threats were cleared by 2238Z without reported impact in the capital (2219Z, 2238Z, KMVA/AFU, HIGH).
SWARM ESCALATION (CENTRAL UKRAINE): Approximately 17 UAVs are transiting Lubny toward Kremenchuk, part of "dozens of groups" currently saturating the Poltava/Dnipropetrovsk axis (2223Z, 2224Z, Vanyok/AFU, HIGH).
EXPANDING VECTORS: New UAV groups have entered via Northern Kherson (targeting Velyka Lepetyha) and Sumy, maintaining pressure on the entire northern and southern frontlines (2215Z, 2240Z, AFU/Vanyok, HIGH).
TACTICAL ROBOTIC ENGAGEMENT: Russian forces (255th Motorized Rifle Regiment) claim to have destroyed a Ukrainian ground robotic platform (NRTK) near Rusyn Yar using FPV drones (2233Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM/UNCONFIRMED).
Poltava/Kremenchuk: This is currently the "center of gravity" for the UAV swarm. Multiple dozens of groups are vectoring toward Kremenchuk, likely targeting the refinery or local power nodes.
Kharkiv: UAVs identified near Chuhuiv and Pechenihy (2231Z). This suggests a maneuver to pressure Kharkiv city's eastern flank and its energy infrastructure.
Sumy: New groups entering the oblast as of 2240Z, ensuring the "pipeline" of drones from the Russian interior remains constant.
2. Central & Southern Sector (Dnipro/Zaporizhzhia/Kherson)
Dnipro City: UAVs are approaching from both the southeast and the Poltava vector (2218Z, 2225Z).
Zaporizhzhia City: A UAV group is approaching from the northeast (2216Z). This coincides with reported aviation surges (KABs) mentioned in daily briefs.
Kherson: New groups crossing from occupied territory (TOT) toward Velyka Lepetyha (2215Z). This indicates an attempt to interdict Ukrainian logistics near the Dnipro River.
3. Strategic Rear (Kyiv/Western Ukraine)
Kyiv: The ballistic alert triggered emergency measures, but the "all clear" at 2238Z suggests either a false alarm, a successful interception, or a "dry run" by Russian forces to map AD response times before the arrival of cruise missiles.
Volyn: (Baseline context) Infrastructure strike confirmed in the previous hour; currently no new kinetic activity in the far west.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Course of Action (COA): The enemy has followed the predicted "loading phase" at Site 105 by launching the Tu-95MS fleet. The UAV swarm is now serving its primary role: forcing Ukrainian AD to deplete ammunition and expose radar positions.
Tactical Adaptation: The use of FPVs against Ukrainian ground robotics (NRTK) in Rusyn Yar suggests Russian units are prioritizing the elimination of UA's "unmanned" defensive force-multipliers, likely to compensate for their own Starlink-driven C2 disruptions.
Capability: Strategic aviation takeoff from Olenya suggests a missile arrival window between 0200Z and 0400Z (7 FEB 2026).
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense: AD units and Mobile Fire Groups (MFGs) are heavily engaged in Poltava and Dnipropetrovsk. The "all clear" in Kyiv indicates high readiness levels for ballistic threats.
Ground Operations: Use of NRTKs (ground robots) near the front indicates a continued shift toward remote warfare to minimize personnel exposure in -27°C conditions.
Information environment / disinformation
Russian "Soft Power" Pivot: State media (TASS) is heavily saturating the environment with coverage of the Italian Winter Olympics, referencing the Sochi games (2233Z). This is a transparent effort to maintain a veneer of normalcy and international participation despite the ongoing strategic air campaign.
Accountability Narratives: Ukrainian channels are highlighting U.S. accountability measures for defense contractors (2211Z). This likely serves to reassure the domestic audience of the long-term sustainability and integrity of Western aid pipelines.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): The Tu-95MS fleet will reach launch lines over the Caspian or Murmansk regions within the next 2-4 hours. A mass cruise missile strike (Kh-101/555) will coincide with the final phase of the UAV swarm to overwhelm AD.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): A multi-modal strike involving the Tu-95s, Kalibr-equipped ships in the Black Sea, and Iskander-M batteries to simultaneously hit energy hubs and rail GLOCs in Western Ukraine (Volyn/Lviv) and Central hubs (Kremenchuk/Dnipro).
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Confirm the number of Tu-95MS aircraft airborne to estimate the total missile volume.
[HIGH] Identify if any sea-based (Kalibr) platforms have exited Novorossiysk or Sevastopol.
[MEDIUM] Obtain BDA on the "Ground Robotic Platform" in Rusyn Yar to assess the effectiveness of RU FPVs against UA tactical tech.
