MASSIVE UAV SWARM: A multi-axis "Shahed" saturation attack is currently underway. Dozens of UAV groups have entered via Sumy/Chernihiv, while the southern vector has increased from 4 to 8 units (2145Z, 2153Z, UA Air Force/Vanyok, HIGH).
KINETIC IMPACT (VOLYN): The Volyn Oblast Military Administration (OVA) confirms a successful strike on a critical infrastructure object. This represents a deep-rear penetration during the current wave (2157Z, RBK-UA, HIGH).
MOLDAVIAN AIRSPACE VIOLATION: A third UAV since the start of the year was discovered in Moldova, confirming the ongoing use of "Sanctuary Airspace" to bypass Ukrainian AD (2142Z, Tsaplienko, HIGH).
US-INDIA TARIFF SHIFT: President Trump has reportedly signed an order lifting the 25% tariff on India previously imposed due to Russian oil purchases, signaling a shift in the enforcement of the price cap/sanctions regime (2205Z, TASS, MEDIUM).
TACTICAL SUCCESS (NGU): The 14th Brigade of the National Guard "Chervona Kalyna" successfully neutralized Russian assault groups using remotely delivered mines (2153Z, Operativny ZSU, HIGH).
Sumy/Chernihiv: The primary entry point for the current wave. "Dozens of groups" are transiting toward Poltava. New groups identified heading for Uhroyidy (2157Z).
Poltava: Currently the focus of the northern swarm, specifically vectoring toward Lubny and Romodan (2200Z). This likely targets rail and energy nodes.
Kyiv: UAVs are approaching Yagotyn from the east, suggesting a flanking maneuver to bypass the capital's dense AD belt.
2. Southern Sector (Mykolaiv/Odesa/Kherson)
Mykolaiv/Voznesensk: The group of 4 UAVs previously reported has doubled to 8. They are bypassing Mykolaiv city and heading northwest toward the Voznesensk district, a critical hub for southern logistics.
Odesa/Berezivskyi: Multiple groups are transiting Kherson/Mykolaiv toward the Berezivskyi district of Odesa (2202Z). This suggests a coordinated attempt to strike the Odesa port periphery or energy infrastructure.
3. Western Sector (Volyn)
Volyn: Confirmed strike on critical infrastructure. The use of western flight paths—potentially involving the Moldova/Western Ukraine corridor—is being used to achieve surprise in regions previously considered lower-risk.
4. Eastern Sector (Donetsk/Kharkiv)
Kharkiv: New UAV vector identified heading for Vilshany from the north (2158Z).
Pokrovsk Axis: No new confirmation regarding the Russian claim of "liberation." The situation remains UNCONFIRMED (LOW CONFIDENCE).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Saturation Tactics: The current deployment of "dozens of groups" across four distinct axes (Volyn, Kyiv, Poltava, Odesa) is a classic saturation maneuver.
Course of Action (COA): The enemy is likely attempting to deplete Ukrainian Air Defense (AD) interceptor stocks and map "gaps" created by the recent Starlink "White List" disruption. This confirms the analytical judgment that this swarm is the precursor to a major missile wave from Site 105.
Adaptation: Continued use of Moldovan airspace indicates a tactical reliance on diplomatic boundaries to shield flight paths from interception until the final terminal phase.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Active Defense: Mobile fire groups and AD units are engaged across at least seven oblasts.
Counter-Assault: Tactical success by the 14th BrOP (NGU) indicates that despite the air pressure, frontline defensive integrity remains high in localized sectors where remote mining is being effectively utilized.
Information environment / disinformation
Peace Negotiation Narrative: TASS and Ukrainian sources are both circulating the Reuters report of a March 2026 ceasefire. Analytical Judgment: The consistency of this reporting suggests a deliberate "managed leak" to influence both domestic Ukrainian morale and Western legislative debates on aid.
Cognitive Operations: Pro-Russian channels (Alex Parker, Colonelcassad) are blending tactical updates with "social decay" narratives (IQ of Gen Z, border escapes) to degrade Ukrainian societal cohesion during the blackout/kinetic strikes.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: The UAV swarm will continue to impact throughout the night, focusing on the Poltava and Odesa energy hubs. This will likely transition into a high-precision missile strike (Kh-101/Kalibr) between 0300Z and 0500Z, targeting the gaps identified by tonight's drone flight paths.
MDCOA: A coordinated missile strike targeting the "Varvarivka" and "Voznesensk" bridges during the height of the UAV swarm to permanently sever southern GLOCs (Ground Lines of Communication).
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[URGENT] BDA (Battle Damage Assessment) for the Volyn infrastructure strike to determine if western supply railheads are compromised.
[HIGH] Visual or SIGINT confirmation of the frontline in Pokrovsk; clarify if Russian "Military Police" are operating in the city center or only the outskirts.
[MEDIUM] Assessment of AD interceptor depletion levels following the "dozens of groups" reported over Poltava.
