CONFIRMED ELIMINATION OF GEN. ALEKSEEV: Pro-Russian sources confirm the death of GRU General Alekseev (Callsign: "Omega") following an assassination attempt. This confirms a significant breach in Russian internal security (2113Z, Alex Parker, HIGH).
WESTERN UKRAINE COUNTER-INTEL SUCCESS: UAF/SBU detained an operative in Western Ukraine responsible for coordinating strikes across Volyn, Rivne, and Ternopil oblasts (2108Z, Tsaplienko, HIGH).
SUMY/POLTAVA UAV VECTOR: New groups of Shahed-type UAVs have entered Northern/Central Sumy, vectoring south toward Poltava (2057Z, 2122Z, UA Air Force, HIGH).
ZAPORIZHZHIA KAB ESCALATION: Russian tactical aviation has launched a fresh wave of Guided Aerial Bombs (KAB) against targets in Zaporizhzhia Oblast (2117Z, UA Air Force, HIGH).
RUSSIAN MILITARY SPACE LAUNCH: Russia successfully launched a Soyuz-2.1b rocket from Plesetsk (05 FEB) carrying military satellites, likely intended to restore ISR/Comms capabilities following the Starlink "purge" (2059Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM).
LOOMING MASSIVE STRIKE: OSINT and official monitoring suggest a high probability of a synchronized combined air attack within the next 6-12 hours (2107Z, Sternenko, MEDIUM).
Sumy: Active UAV penetration toward Putyvl and the central region (2057Z, 2102Z). Pro-Russian units ("Sever") claim to have destroyed a UAF tank in the Sumy forests, indicating active sabotage and reconnaissance group (DRG) engagements near the border (2117Z).
Chernihiv/Poltava: UAVs are currently transiting the Bakhmach and Dmytrivka areas, moving south toward Poltava Oblast (2122Z). This suggests a widening of the strike corridor to bypass northern AD belts.
2. Western Sector (Volyn/Rivne)
Volodymyr Axis: A UAV vector is tracking toward the city of Volodymyr from the north (2105Z). This follows earlier probes toward Kovel.
Interdiction: The arrest of a regional strike coordinator (2108Z) significantly degrades the enemy’s ability to conduct Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) or refine targeting for the western logistics hubs in the immediate term.
3. Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson)
Zaporizhzhia: UAVs are approaching the city from the south (2108Z), synchronized with KAB launches from tactical aviation (2117Z). The city remains a primary focal point for Russian suppression of SEAD/DEAD and infrastructure destruction.
Kherson: Humanitarian volunteers were targeted during an evacuation operation, resulting in one dead and multiple wounded (2123Z). This highlights the continued Russian policy of targeting non-combatant logistics.
Enemy analysis (Threat assessment)
Command & Control (C2): The death of General Alekseev ("Omega") is expected to disrupt GRU-directed hybrid operations in the short term. Expect aggressive retaliatory strikes as the MoD/FSB rivalry intensifies following the "inside job" allegations.
Space/ISR Adaption: The Soyuz-2.1b launch (2059Z) indicates a strategic move to mitigate the loss of Starlink connectivity for Russian units. These military satellites may be intended to provide alternative low-latency data links for drone operators.
Course of Action: The pattern of UAV "shaping" flights over Sumy, Poltava, and Volyn, combined with the finished "loading phase" at Site 105, points to a multi-vector missile and drone strike tonight.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Readiness: AD units in the Poltava and Volyn sectors are on high alert following the identification of new UAV vectors.
Sustainment: US approval of $185M in spare parts (2125Z) is critical for maintaining the operational tempo of the Bradley and M113 fleets, which are essential for tactical mobility in the current mud/freeze cycle.
Strategic Morale: The appearance of the Ukrainian Olympic team at the 2026 Winter Games (2110Z) serves as a key domestic morale booster amidst the threat of infrastructure strikes.
Information environment / disinformation
Geopolitical Friction: Slovakia's intent to litigate the EU's Russian gas decision (2115Z) is being amplified by Russian state media to project an image of a fractured European consensus.
Olympic Provocation: Reports of Russian flags appearing at the San Siro stadium (2123Z) are likely coordinated "active measures" intended to trigger Ukrainian diplomatic reactions and distract from frontline operations.
Misc: A minor earthquake near Poltava (2058Z) is being monitored; while likely natural, Russian channels are amplifying it to induce local panic.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): A synchronized launch of Kh-101/555 cruise missiles from the Caspian/Engels axis, timed to arrive as current Shahed groups exhaust Ukrainian AD magazines in the North and West.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): A "saturation strike" targeting energy infrastructure and Western rail-transfer points in Volyn, utilizing the newly mapped AD gaps identified by the late-evening UAV probes.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[URGENT] Identify the specific orbital parameters and mission profile of the satellites launched by the Soyuz-2.1b; determine if they provide real-time targeting capabilities for FPV/Rubicon units.
[HIGH] Confirm the current status of Black Sea Fleet Kalibr-carriers; assess if a sea-based launch will be coordinated with the projected aerial wave.
[MEDIUM] Monitor for increased electronic warfare (EW) activity in the Poltava sector, which may precede the terminal phase of the current UAV flight paths.
