WESTERN UKRAINE UAV PENETRATION: Shahed-type UAVs have entered Volyn Oblast airspace, tracking west toward Manevychi and Kovel (2034Z, 2048Z, UA Air Force, HIGH).
ZAPORIZHZHIA KAB EXPANSION: Russian aviation has expanded Guided Aerial Bomb (KAB) strikes to the Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk border and Zaporizhzhia City (2031Z, 2046Z, UA Air Force, HIGH).
AD COMMAND RESTRUCTURING: President Zelenskyy announced immediate personnel changes within Air Force units responsible for "Shahed" defense in specific regions (2042Z, Zelenskiy/Official, HIGH).
US SUSTAINMENT SUPPORT: US State Department approved a $185M package specifically for military equipment spare parts (2028Z, TASS/Pentagon, HIGH).
MASSIVE RU REAR ALERT: UAV threats now cover 11 Russian oblasts, including Saratov, Volgograd, and Tula, indicating a significant expansion of Ukrainian deep-strike operations (2042Z, Sternenko, MEDIUM).
RU INTERNAL CONSOLIDATION: Russian General Prosecutor has moved to seize assets of "Sirena-Travel" (major booking system), continuing the trend of wartime nationalization (2053Z, TASS, MEDIUM).
Operational picture (by sector)
1. Northern & Western Sector (Volyn/Chernihiv/Sumy)
Volyn: A rare UAV vector has been identified over Manevychi heading West/Southwest toward Kovel (2048Z). This suggests a Russian effort to probe air defense (AD) corridors near the Polish border or target logistics transit hubs for Western aid.
Chernihiv: Multiple UAV groups are currently over the NE portion of the oblast, vectoring toward Sosnytsia and Koryukivka (2033Z).
Sumy: Remains under active missile/UAV threat ("Target for Sumy!" 2035Z).
2. Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Dnipropetrovsk)
Airstrikes: Russian tactical aviation is increasingly focused on the boundary between Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts (2031Z). This likely aims to disrupt the junction of Ukrainian territorial defenses and prevent the movement of reserves toward the Orikhiv or Vuhledar axes.
3. Strategic/Rear Areas (Russia)
Bryansk: Five fixed-wing UAVs intercepted (2025Z).
Multi-Oblast Alert: The declaration of "drone danger" across 11 regions—reaching as far as Tula and Smolensk—indicates that UAF is conducting a synchronized, multi-vector deep-strike campaign. This forces the Russian MoD to keep AD assets far from the frontlines.
Enemy analysis (Threat assessment)
Tactical Shift: The use of UAVs in Volyn (West Ukraine) indicates a shift in ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance) priorities, potentially mapping routes for the anticipated missile wave from GRAU Site 105.
Attrition of Cadre: The confirmed death of the "Pora ZOV Domoy" administrator (2027Z) highlights the continued attrition of experienced Russian "mil-blogger" fighters who bridge the gap between propaganda and frontline C2.
Logistics Adaption: The seizure of "Sirena-Travel" suggests the Kremlin is prioritizing the control of all transport/data infrastructure to streamline military movements and restrict civilian escape.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Command & Control: President Zelenskyy’s decision to shuffle AD personnel (2042Z) is likely a response to recent KAB/Shahed penetrations in critical energy hubs. This reflects a "zero-tolerance" approach to AD failures during the winter heating season.
Tactical Success: The 4th SBS "Birds of Magyar" released footage of a large-scale engagement ("winter rusorez"), confirming that Ukrainian FPV/specialized drone units maintain high lethality despite the -27°C temperatures and the Starlink "purge" noted in previous reports (2050Z).
Information environment / disinformation
Diplomatic Friction: Hungarian FM Szijjártó is leveraging a sporting incident involving a Ukrainian tennis player to amplify "scandalous" narratives (2049Z). This aligns with Russian interests in depicting Ukraine as "unreasonable" to Western partners.
Casualty Narratives: Russian sources (WarTears via Colonelcassad) are circulating inflated UAF casualty figures (2050Z) to counter the domestic psychological impact of the 11-region drone alert.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): Continued UAV probing in Western Ukraine (Volyn/Lviv) to identify AD gaps, followed by a localized missile strike on rail infrastructure.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): A massive, multi-domain strike originating from GRAU Site 105 (now "quiet/loaded") synchronized with the Shaheds currently over Volyn and Chernihiv.
Internal RU: Expect further "air danger" declarations in central Russia as UAF UAVs reach their terminal targets.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Determine if the Volyn UAV vector is a decoy or if it is equipped with electronic signals intelligence (ELINT) to map AD radars in Western Ukraine.
[HIGH] Monitor for "Takeoff" alerts of Tu-95MS or Tu-160 bombers from Olenya or Engels airbases; the transition from "loading" (Site 105) to "launch" is imminent.
[MEDIUM] Assess the impact of the US spare parts package on the operational readiness of M113 and Bradley fleets currently engaged in the Eastern sector.
