UAF AIR FORCE COMMAND RESTRUCTURING: President Zelenskyy officially announced imminent personnel changes within the Air Force (PS ZSU), specifically targeting units responsible for Shahed-type UAV defense (1734Z, Zelenskyy/Official, HIGH).
DEEP WESTERN UAV PROGRESSION: Shahed-type UAVs have transited Volyn Oblast, passing through Holoby toward Turiysk, Volodymyr, and Novovolynsk, nearing the Polish border (1728Z, 1738Z, 1752Z, UA Air Force, HIGH).
KINETIC IMPACT IN LVIV: An explosion in Lviv Oblast has resulted in at least three casualties and severe structural damage; this is likely the result of the western-bound UAV flight path identified in the previous reporting period (1743Z, RBK-Ukraine, HIGH).
ZAPORIZHZHIA OFFENSIVE (HULIAIPOLE): Russian forces have initiated offensive operations southwest of Huliaipole along the Gaichur River line, supported by reconnaissance footage (1728Z, 1743Z, Colonelcassad/Slivochnyi Kapriz, HIGH).
DIPLOMATIC DISCORD: The Kremlin has explicitly refuted Ukrainian claims of a negotiation round in the USA, labeling such reports "fantasies," while confirming that "Abu Dhabi" remains the current framework for delegation reports (1740Z, 1753Z, Operation Z/Colonelcassad, MEDIUM).
COUNTER-UAV ACTIVITY IN RU REAR: A "UAV danger" alert was issued for Bryansk Oblast, Russia, indicating active Ukrainian deep-strike or reconnaissance operations into the Russian border region (1732Z, AV Bogomaz, HIGH).
Operational picture (by sector)
Western Sector (Volyn/Lviv): Russian UAVs have successfully penetrated deep into the western interior. The vector (Novovolynsk) suggests a high-priority target near the border, potentially a logistics terminal or energy substation. The Lviv explosion (1743Z) confirms that at least one munition or intercept debris has impacted a civilian/industrial area.
Northern Sector (Sumy/Bryansk): A new UAV threat is approaching Sumy from the east (1729Z). Simultaneously, Ukrainian UAV activity over Bryansk (1732Z) suggests a "tit-for-tat" suppression of Russian launch sites or C2 nodes.
Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia): The "Battle on the Gaichur" indicates a renewed Russian attempt to flatten the Huliaipole salient. Russian forces are utilizing visual reconnaissance to coordinate ground assaults between Huliaipole and Dorozhnyanka (1728Z). This move coincides with the systemic power failure in occupied Zaporizhzhia reported earlier.
Eastern Sector: No significant change from previous sitrep; attrition-based fighting continues.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Course of Action: Russia is maintaining a continuous "drone-pressure" tactic to mask the final preparations for a large-scale missile strike. The use of multiple vectors (Sumy, Volyn, Zaporizhzhia) is intended to saturate the Air Force’s "Shahed-hunter" mobile groups.
Offensive Intent: The ground push near Huliaipole is likely a localized effort to seize dominant heights or bridgeheads across the Gaichur River before the forecasted icing/weather deterioration (ref. 1708Z report) restricts heavy armor movement.
Hybrid/Logistics: Russian media is actively promoting an "anti-Starlink" narrative (1735Z, Rybar), attempting to downplay the impact of the Ukrainian "White List" purge while signaling their own technical adaptations.
Friendly activity (UAF)
C2/Leadership: The President’s decision to replace Air Force leadership in "Shahed-defense" sectors indicates an urgent requirement to improve intercept rates. This may involve a shift from centralized SAM coverage to expanded mobile fire groups (MFGs) or better EW integration.
Diplomatic Track: A Ukrainian delegation is currently active in Abu Dhabi. President Zelenskyy is scheduled to receive a progress report on Feb 7 (1741Z).
Counter-Offensive Capability: UAF appears to be maintaining pressure on Russian border regions (Bryansk) to force the redistribution of Russian AD assets away from the frontline.
Information environment / disinformation
Negotiation Framing: A clear rift has emerged in the information space regarding the venue for peace talks. Ukraine/Western sources hinted at the USA; Russia is aggressively shutting this down (1740Z, 1753Z) to maintain the "Abu Dhabi" format, which likely offers them more favorable geopolitical leverage.
Domestic Distraction: Russian state media (TASS) and Kremlin spokespeople are prioritizing trivial cultural commentary (theatre dress codes, 1732Z) and localized crime (St. Petersburg child neglect, 1742Z) to fill the domestic news cycle, likely to obscure the Alekseev assassination attempt fallout and frontline casualties.
Internal Ukrainian Stability: Pro-Russian and some internal Ukrainian channels are amplifying questions regarding the influence of the Office of the President following the rumored departure of Andriy Yermak (1734Z), attempting to project an image of administrative instability.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): Continued UAV swarms over Volyn and Sumy throughout the night. Expect a transition from UAV "shaping" to a coordinated cruise/ballistic missile strike in the early morning hours, utilizing the "Site 105" munitions previously loaded.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): Russian forces in Zaporizhzhia exploit the occupied-area power outage to conduct a "dark" mechanized assault on Huliaipole, utilizing Night Vision/Thermal superiority if UAF sensors are degraded by icing.
Personnel Shift: Expect official decrees regarding the new Air Force appointments within the next 8 hours.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Determine the specific target of the Lviv explosion (1743Z)—was it energy infrastructure or a transit point for Western aid?
[HIGH] Identify the scale of the Russian ground force committed to the Huliaipole/Gaichur offensive (Company vs. Battalion Tactical Group).
[MEDIUM] Monitor Russian strategic aviation (Engels-2/Olenya) for engine start-up sequences, which would confirm the 24-48h missile strike window.
