DEEP WESTERN UAV PENETRATION: Shahed-type UAVs have transited Rivne Oblast and are currently on a western course toward Volyn Oblast, marking a significant deep-penetration reconnaissance or strike vector (1656Z, 1710Z, UA Air Force, HIGH).
MOBILIZATION FRICTION / CIVIL UNREST: A significant security incident occurred in Rivne where unidentified individuals blocked a Territorial Recruitment Center (TCC) vehicle and forcibly "freed" mobilized personnel following their medical examinations (1656Z, 1716Z, RBK-Ukraine, HIGH).
NATIONWIDE POWER RESTRICTIONS: Ukrenergo has announced hourly power outages and industrial consumption limits for all regions of Ukraine for Feb 7, confirming systemic grid instability (1709Z, Operativnyi ZSU, HIGH).
OCCUPIED TERRITORY GRID FAILURE: Massive, simultaneous power outages are reported in Russian-occupied portions of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson Oblasts, suggesting potential Ukrainian sabotage or spillover from the degraded national grid (1721Z, ASTRA, MEDIUM).
WEATHER DETERIORATION: Official warnings issued for worsening weather (rain and snow) across Ukraine; combined with -27°C base temps, this will result in severe icing on equipment and runways (1708Z, Patrol Police, HIGH).
UGV DEPLOYMENT IN KHERSON: Ukrainian forces successfully destroyed a Russian Ground Unmanned Vehicle (UGV) transport drone carrying ammunition in the Kherson sector, indicating increased Russian reliance on automated logistics (1707Z, Butusov Plus, HIGH).
Operational picture (by sector)
Western Sector (Rivne/Volyn): The UAV threat has shifted from mapping to potential targeting of logistics hubs near the Polish border. The civil incident in Rivne suggests an emerging internal security vulnerability that may be exploited by Russian PSYOPs.
Northern Sector (Chernihiv): A new UAV vector is identified moving toward Ichnia from the east (1715Z). This likely targets local ammunition storage or rail infrastructure.
Eastern Sector (Pokrovsk): High-intensity attrition continues. Ukrainian SSO (3rd Regiment) reported successful interdiction of Russian infantry (1657Z), while RU "Center" Group claims to have destroyed UAF armor in the same axis (1703Z).
Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson): Russian forces are pushing UAVs into Zaporizhzhia from the south (1710Z). The tactical situation is complicated by the total power failure in occupied areas, which may degrade Russian C2 and electronic warfare (EW) capabilities.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Adaptations: Russia is increasingly utilizing UGVs (ground drones) for the "last mile" of ammunition delivery in Kherson (1707Z), likely in response to high UAF FPV drone density making manned resupply impossible.
Missile Course of Action: The loading phase at GRAU Site 105 remains complete. The current multi-vector UAV activity (Rivne, Volyn, Chernihiv, Zaporizhzhia) is assessed as the final "shaping" phase to fix UAF Air Defense (AD) assets before a large-scale missile release.
Diplomatic Posturing: The Kremlin (via Peskov) has officially ruled out the US as a venue for negotiations (1720Z), signaling a refusal to engage with the current US administration's framework.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Special Operations: 3rd SSO Regiment (Shershni) continues to demonstrate high lethality in the Pokrovsk direction, focusing on disrupting Russian assault groups (1657Z).
Logistics Interdiction: UAF continues to successfully target Russian tactical logistics, including cargo trucks in occupied Donetsk and UGVs in Kherson (1710Z).
Internal Security: TCC units in Western Ukraine are facing increased physical resistance, necessitating a potential shift in security protocols for mobilization activities (1716Z).
Information environment / disinformation
Exploiting Mobilization Tensions: Russian channels are likely to amplify the Rivne TCC incident to foster a narrative of "civil war" or "internal collapse" in Western Ukraine.
Internal Russian Corruption: Russian state media (TASS) is highlighting domestic corruption cases (morgue bribery in St. Petersburg) (1657Z), potentially as a populist "distraction" from military losses or the Alekseev assassination attempt.
Strategic Misdirection: Unconfirmed reports of energy attacks in China (1717Z, Colonelcassad) appear in Russian channels, likely intended to project a global "energy war" narrative and diminish the perceived isolation of Russian strikes on Ukraine.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): Coordinated missile/drone strike against central and western energy hubs. Icing conditions (1708Z) will likely be exploited to degrade UAF interceptor take-off capabilities and AD radar effectiveness.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): A multi-axis UAV swarm designed to exhaust AD magazines, immediately followed by a high-precision strike on the Kyiv C2 nodes and the remaining Poltava fuel infrastructure.
Event Watch: Monitor the Volyn-Polish border for any "accidental" UAV incursions or AD intercepts over NATO territory.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Confirmation of current status of RU Tu-95MS flight crews (standby vs. airborne) following the loading phase at Site 105.
[HIGH] Visual confirmation of damage to occupied Zaporizhzhia/Kherson power grids—determine if outages are due to UAF strikes or RU technical failure in extreme cold.
[MEDIUM] Assessment of the "unknown persons" in the Rivne TCC incident—identify if this was a spontaneous civilian action or a coordinated GRU-led hybrid operation.
