KHERSON ENERGY TARGETING: The Kherson Thermal Power Plant (TPP) was struck for the fourth time this month, indicating a systematic effort to collapse the city's utility infrastructure. (1556Z, UA Operativno/Naftogaz, HIGH).
SLOVIANSK AXIS PRESSURE: Russian forces claim sustained tactical advances over the past 72 hours on the approaches to Sloviansk. (1622Z, Rybar, MEDIUM).
POKROVSK SECTOR ENGAGEMENT: UA Special Forces ("Omega-West" unit) successfully neutralized a Russian-occupied strongpoint in Rodynske using anti-tank mines (TM-62) during close-quarters clearing operations. (1616Z, UA Operativno, HIGH).
NATO BORDER PROVOCATION: A second drone incident in one week was reported at a Polish military base, suggesting an escalation in hybrid reconnaissance or harassment against NATO logistics hubs. (1600Z, RBK-Ukraine, MEDIUM).
SUMY UAV VECTOR: New Shahed-type UAV activity detected moving toward Bilopillia (Sumy Oblast). (1613Z, UA Air Force, HIGH).
REAR AREA INTERDICTION: UA forces conducted a successful ambush/strike on a Russian supply convoy in occupied Donetsk. (1618Z, Butusov, MEDIUM).
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Sector (Zhytomyr/Sumy): The UAV threat remains persistent. The vector toward Korosten (Zhytomyr) continues from the previous report, while a new vector has opened toward Bilopillia (Sumy). This suggests a broad-front reconnaissance-in-force to identify gaps in mobile AD coverage.
Eastern Sector (Sloviansk/Pokrovsk): The Sloviansk axis is hardening into a primary Russian effort. In the Pokrovsk direction, specifically Rodynske, UAF are utilizing high-risk/high-reward special operations tactics (using TM-mines as demolition charges) to clear urban cover, indicating fierce house-to-house fighting.
Southern Sector (Kherson): Russian artillery/missile units are maintaining a high tempo of fire against critical energy nodes. The repeated strikes on the Kherson TPP aim to trigger a humanitarian crisis by disabling heating in sub-zero temperatures.
International/Hybrid Front: The repeated drone incursions into Polish military airspace are likely intended to test Polish/NATO reaction times and monitor the throughput of Western aid transiting the border.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Aviation & Drones: RU MoD is actively promoting "Rubikon" drone unit footage to counter the narrative of the Starlink "purge" affecting their operations. This is a deliberate effort to project continued technological capability despite the tactical blackout. (1557Z, RU MoD).
Logistics Vulnerability: The convoy strike in occupied Donetsk suggests that Russian MSRs (Main Supply Routes) remain vulnerable to Ukrainian deep-strike or partisan activity despite the high concentration of RU troops (712k).
Tactical Shifts: On the Sloviansk axis, the enemy is shifting from broad frontal assaults to "creeping" tactical gains, likely utilizing the -27°C weather to exploit defensive rotations.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Special Operations: The "Omega-West" unit's actions in Rodynske demonstrate high proficiency in urban combat and the creative use of available munitions (TM-mines) to clear fortified structures.
Economic Stabilization: The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has adjusted the USD exchange rate downward for Monday, a move likely intended to maintain domestic financial stability and curb inflation-driven panic amid energy grid instability. (1610Z, RBK-Ukraine).
Information environment / disinformation
Epstein/Conspiracy Pivot: Russian influence channels (Colonelcassad, Alex Parker, Operatsiya Z) have launched a synchronized campaign leveraging "leaked" Epstein documents to target Western political figures and Russian-origin oligarchs (e.g., Mikhail Fridman). This is a classic "reflexive control" tactic to distract Western audiences and create internal friction. (HIGH activity, LOW factual reliability).
Domestic Distraction: RU state media is emphasizing local criminal cases (e.g., St. Petersburg negligence) and cultural cancellations (Omsk concert) to dilute reporting on the high casualty rates and the "Rubikon" drone connectivity issues.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Continued UAV harassment over Zhytomyr and Sumy Oblasts. Systematic shelling of Kherson's remaining utility infrastructure will persist overnight.
MDCOA: A large-scale missile wave remains highly probable within the next 24-36 hours, following the "quiet phase" observed at GRAU Missile Arsenal Site 105.
Decision Point: If Russian claims of advancement in the Sloviansk axis are confirmed via satellite/visual intel, UAF may need to redeploy reserve elements from the relatively stable northern sectors to prevent a breakthrough toward the Kramatorsk-Sloviansk agglomeration.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Determine the launch origin and specific type of the UAVs penetrating Polish airspace.
[HIGH] Visual confirmation (drone/SAR) of the reported Russian advances on the Sloviansk axis to verify Rybar’s claims.
[MEDIUM] Assess the operational status of the Kherson TPP following the 4th strike; determine if it remains capable of heat generation.
[MEDIUM] Monitor for RU "Rubikon" units shifting to alternative satellite providers (e.g., Chinese commercial or domestic RU systems) to bypass the Starlink "White List."
