NORTHERN VECTOR EXPANSION: The Russian UAV previously detected in Kyiv Oblast has transitioned west into Zhytomyr Oblast, specifically the Korosten district. (1548Z, UA Air Force, HIGH).
ZAPORIZHZHIA OFFENSIVE (GAICHUR): Significant combat activity reported in East Zaporizhzhia near Huliaipole, described as the "Battle on the Gaichur." (1530Z, Rybar/Voin_DV, MEDIUM).
KOSTIANTYNIVKA ENGAGEMENT: Russian paratroopers have provided updated mapping of offensive movements in the Kostiantynivka direction, indicating sustained pressure on this sector. (1528Z, Dnevnik Desantnika, MEDIUM).
VKS STRIKE OPERATIONS: Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) reportedly conducted targeted strikes on Ukrainian Temporary Deployment Points (PVD) and UAV control centers in Vesyoloye, Nesterne, and Novoaleksandrovka. (1535Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM).
INTERNAL SECURITY (RU): A shooting incident on Moscow’s Rublevskoye Highway involving a suspected former Wagner PMC member highlights ongoing domestic instability and friction from returning combatants. (1554Z, ASTRA, HIGH).
UA DOMESTIC ECONOMY: The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has issued a forecast for an imminent increase in electricity tariffs, reflecting the strain on the energy grid during sub-zero temperatures. (1540Z, RBK-Ukraine, HIGH).
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Sector (Zhytomyr/Kyiv): The UAV vectoring toward Korosten (Zhytomyr) indicates an expansion of the reconnaissance corridor westward. This likely targets the transit routes for Western materiel or secondary energy distribution hubs.
Eastern Sector (Donbas/Kostiantynivka): Russian VDV (Airborne) elements are refining their maps of the Kostiantynivka approach. This sector is experiencing intensified localized ground assaults.
Southern Sector (East Zaporizhzhia): The "Battle on the Gaichur" near Huliaipole marks a potential shift in Russian focus toward the eastern flank of the Zaporizhzhia line, possibly aiming to sever tactical links between the southern and eastern groupings of the UAF.
Rear Areas (UA): Continued legal pressure on collaborators, with 14 new suspicions and 1,000+ sentences reported this week, aimed at securing the rear against Russian HUMINT networks. (1530Z, UA Prosecutor General).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Adaptations: RU forces are utilizing Spetsnaz "Archangel" units to conduct precision mortar suppression, indicating a focus on eliminating Ukrainian indirect fire capabilities. (1525Z, Archangel Spetsnaz).
Recruitment Desperation: Reports indicate Russian universities are now requiring student leaders to recruit at least two students per month for the war, suggesting significant personnel replacement pressure despite the 712,000 troops currently deployed. (1536Z, Mobilization News, UNCONFIRMED/LOW).
VKS Interdiction: The focus on UAV control points (Vesyoloye/Novoaleksandrovka) suggests an attempt to neutralize the Ukrainian tactical drone advantage that has compensated for the Starlink blackout.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Counter-Materiel Capability: The Presidential Brigade has highlighted the deployment of the "Alligator" anti-materiel rifle by elite sniper groups ("Ghosts"). This provides UAF with enhanced capabilities to disable light armored vehicles and fortified positions at long range. (1532Z, UA Presidential Brigade).
Internal Integrity: High-tempo judicial actions against collaborators serve as a deterrent and mitigate the "insider threat" during critical winter defensive operations.
Resource Management: Civil organizations (e.g., Sternenko Fund) are actively scaling operations, signaling a continued reliance on volunteer-funded tactical tech (drones/EW) to fill gaps.
Information environment / disinformation
Mobilization Narratives: Russian sources are aggressively disseminating footage of alleged forced mobilization in Odesa (Hadzhibey) to fuel domestic unrest and portray Ukrainian mobilization as failing. (1527Z, NgP RaZVedka).
Hybrid Propaganda: Utilization of manipulated AI-generated content (e.g., Trump/Obama videos) is being used in the RU information space to project global instability and undermine Western democratic processes. (1550Z, Sternenko/Colonelcassad).
Lukashenko Optics: Belarusian state media is projecting an image of informal stability despite regional tensions, emphasizing the "Council of Ministers" meeting. (1534Z, ASTRA).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: UAV reconnaissance will likely focus on Korosten’s railway and energy infrastructure. Russian ground forces will continue probing attacks in the Huliaipole and Kostiantynivka sectors to exploit the -27°C conditions.
MDCOA: A coordinated strike combining KABs in the South and precision missiles in the North, targeting Zhytomyr/Kyiv energy nodes to induce a total blackout in those oblasts as temperatures remain critical.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[HIGH] Verify the scale of the "Battle on the Gaichur"; identify if RU has committed operational reserves in the Huliaipole direction.
[MEDIUM] Monitor the Korosten UAV vector for signals of EW jamming or follow-on strike packages.
[MEDIUM] Confirm the validity of reports regarding student recruitment quotas in RU universities as an indicator of future mobilization waves.
[LOW] Assess the impact of the Rublevskoye Highway shooting on FSB/Wagner internal relations and its potential for localized "purge" actions in Moscow.
