MASSIVE COMBINED AIR ATTACK: Russian forces launched a large-scale coordinated strike using "Kinzhal" hypersonic missiles and "hundreds of drones" against multiple targets across Ukraine (1159Z, RBC-UA; HIGH).
SLOVAKIA HALTS MILITARY AID: Slovakian Parliament Vice-Speaker Tibor Gašpar confirmed Slovakia will no longer provide military assistance to Ukraine, formalizing a significant shift in regional support (1200Z, TASS; HIGH).
POKROVSK SECTOR INTENSITY: Russian MoD reported state awards for the "Tsentr" Group of Forces for the "liberation of Krasnoarmeysk" (Pokrovsk), indicating a high-intensity push and potential localized advances (1213Z, MoD Russia; MEDIUM).
SABOTAGE IN OCCUPIED TERRITORY: A juvenile was detained in the LNR for arson against transformers and communications towers; Russian authorities are processing the case as "terrorism" (1211Z, Mash na Donbasse; MEDIUM).
DRONE THREATS EXPANDING: New UAV groups identified moving toward Sumy from the north (1204Z) and Kropyvnytskyi (1220Z), following earlier threats toward Kremenchuk (1158Z, UA Air Force; HIGH).
KREMLIN RESPONSE TO ALEKSEEV: Dmitry Peskov issued the first official Kremlin response to the assassination of Gen-Lt Alekseev, signaling the elevation of the incident to a top-tier state security matter (1217Z, RBC-UA; HIGH).
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
Battlefield Geometry: The conflict has entered a period of extreme vertical and horizontal escalation. While ground combat remains fixed on the Pokrovsk (Myrnohrad) axis, the air domain is currently dominated by a high-volume saturation campaign targeting the energy grid and C2 nodes.
Weather/Environment: The severe cold (-27°C) continues to act as a force multiplier for Russian infrastructure strikes. The humanitarian impact in Kyiv is reported as "significant" following sustained hits on heating and power (1155Z).
Infrastructure Status: The energy grid is under critical strain. New UAV incursions toward Kropyvnytskyi and Kremenchuk suggest a deliberate pattern of targeting secondary distribution hubs to prevent grid re-synchronization.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat assessment)
Air Capabilities: The deployment of "Kinzhal" missiles alongside a high volume of UAVs indicates a "complex strike" methodology designed to saturate Ukrainian Integrated Air Defense Systems (IADS) and deplete interceptor stocks before the Canadian AIM missiles can be integrated.
Force Composition (Pokrovsk): The mention of the "Tsentr" Group (Central Military District) receiving awards for "Krasnoarmeysk" (Russian name for Pokrovsk) suggests these units are the primary echelon for the current breakthrough attempt. Their focus is likely the industrial outskirts of Myrnohrad.
Logistics & Sustainment: Russian paramilitary channels are actively crowdfunded and organizing "5th vehicle convoys" and quadcopters (1159Z). This suggests that while the MoD handles heavy armor, localized tactical mobility and ISR (drones) are still heavily reliant on volunteer supply chains.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue force tracking)
Air Defense: The Ukrainian Air Force successfully engaged a massive wave of drones and missiles, though the high volume of incoming threats is likely stressing the magazine depth of Western-supplied systems (1159Z).
Internal Security: UA forces remain vigilant against localized breakthroughs; however, the Russian use of captured M113 APCs (noted in previous reports) and drone strikes in Orekhovo (1215Z) complicate IFF (Identification Friend or Foe) procedures on the Zaporizhzhia front.
Resource Constraints: The formal cessation of Slovakian military aid creates a long-term logistics gap for Soviet-standard ammunition and maintenance parts that Slovakia previously provided.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive domain)
Slovakian Narrative: Russian state media (TASS, Rybar) is aggressively promoting the Slovakian aid cutoff to demoralize UA supporters and signal a fracture in NATO/EU unity (1200Z).
Psychological Operations: The Russian MoD’s use of the term "liberation" for Pokrovsk/Krasnoarmeysk—while the city remains contested—is a classic reflexive control tactic intended to induce a sense of inevitability among defenders.
Domestic RU Sentiment: The "Day of Russian Science" and the governor of Bryansk’s awards (1203Z, 1209Z) are being used to maintain a facade of "business as usual" inside Russia despite the Alekseev assassination and Lipetsk air alerts (1159Z).
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future operations)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Russian forces will continue the UAV saturation of Sumy, Kropyvnytskyi, and Kremenchuk over the next 6 hours to prevent power restoration. In Pokrovsk, "Tsentr" Group elements will likely attempt a night-time armored assault on the northern industrial zone.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): If the Kinzhal strikes successfully neutralized specific "White List" Starlink ground stations or UA C2 hubs, a synchronized ground offensive across the entire Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk fronts could occur while UA communications are degraded.
Timeline Estimate: The next 6-12 hours are critical for the survival of the Kyiv/Central Ukraine heating grid. If the temperature remains at -27°C and power is not restored, structural damage to water/heating pipes will become irreversible.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
CRITICAL THREAT to national energy stability and the Pokrovsk defensive line. Air defense assets must prioritize "Kinzhal" interceptors for high-value C2 and energy infrastructure. Units in the Orekhovo/Zaporizhzhia sector must be on high alert for "trojan horse" tactics using captured UA equipment.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[URGENT] BDA (Battle Damage Assessment) of the "Kinzhal" strikes—determine if any key C2 or air defense nodes were neutralized.
[HIGH] Confirmation of the current frontline in Pokrovsk/Krasnoarmeysk—is the "liberation" claim purely propaganda or a sign of a significant UA withdrawal?
[MEDIUM] Impact of the Slovakian aid halt on specific ammunition calibers (e.g., 122mm or 152mm artillery shells).
[LOW] Verification of the "Lipetsk air danger"—does this indicate a retaliatory UA UAV strike into the Russian interior?
