C2 INSTABILITY (MOSCOW): Assassination attempt on General-Lieutenant Vladimir Alekseev (1st Deputy Chief of GRU/GU) confirmed; sources link him to PMC "Redut" and "Novichok" operations (0855Z, ASTRA, HIGH).
ZAPORIZHZHIA AIR STRIKES: Russian tactical aviation has launched Guided Aerial Bombs (KAB) targeting the Zaporizhzhia region (0829Z, Air Force UA, HIGH).
UAV MANEUVERS: Multiple groups of Russian UAVs have transited Poltava and are currently on a heading toward Cherkasy region (0841Z, Air Force UA, HIGH).
STARLINK BLOCKADE IMPACT: Assessment indicates the UA-led "White List" for Starlink terminals is expected to significantly degrade Russian coordination and "Rubicon" fiber-optic drone operations (0843Z, RBC-Ukraine/ISW, MEDIUM).
INTERNAL REPRESSION: Russian authorities have imposed a 50-year entry ban on comedian Nurlan Saburov on national security grounds, indicating continued tightening of the domestic information space (0829Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM).
DIPLOMATIC CONTACT: Switzerland (OSCE Chair) held talks with Lavrov in an attempt to restore dialogue between the organization and the Russian Federation (0850Z, TASS, MEDIUM).
Operational picture (by sector)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
Battlefield Geometry: The frontline remains static following the tactical loss of Dehtyarne (Kharkiv) earlier today. The operational tempo is currently dominated by aerial stand-off strikes (KABs) and UAV penetrations rather than significant ground maneuvers.
Weather: Severe cold (-27°C) continues to dictate operational constraints. Icing on major supply routes is confirmed by a significant civilian vehicle overturn on the Mariupol-Novoazovsk highway (0830Z, Mash on Donbas).
Infrastructure: Power grid stability in Kyiv remains critical following the destruction of TPP-4.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat assessment)
Command and Control (C2): The shooting of General-Lieutenant Alekseev represents a major disruption to GRU/GU leadership. Alekseev's oversight of "Redut" and special operations suggests potential internal friction or a "purge" within the Russian intelligence community.
Tactical Adaptations: Faced with the Starlink "White List" blockade, Russian forces are actively recruiting technical specialists for "Geran" (Shahed) units (0830Z, Voenkor Kotenok), suggesting a pivot toward autonomous or pre-programmed long-range strike capabilities to offset lost frontline real-time C2.
Logistics: Following the strike on the Trostyanets rail hub, Russian logistics in the north are likely being rerouted, though specific alternatives have not yet been identified via SIGINT.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue force tracking)
Electronic Warfare (EW): The implementation of the Starlink "White List" is the primary tactical advantage currently being exploited. This digital "interdiction" is blinding Russian FPV teams and artillery spotters who relied on captured hardware.
Air Defense (AD): UA forces are successfully vectoring against UAV groups moving from Sumy/Poltava toward Cherkasy. Engagement of KAB-launching aircraft in the Zaporizhzhia sector remains a high priority but is constrained by enemy stand-off distances.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive domain)
Propaganda Shifts: Pro-Russian channels are attempting to distract from internal instability (Alekseev) by highlighting U.S. naval activity in the Pacific (0846Z, 0847Z, Multiple Sources).
Internal Criticism: Minimal internal dissent is surfacing in Russian "milblogger" channels (0829Z, NgP RaZVedka), though most are currently focused on the "shock" of the Alekseev assassination attempt (0831Z, Basurin).
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future operations)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Russia will continue localized KAB strikes in the Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv sectors to maintain pressure while attempting to bypass the Starlink blockade using traditional radio-relay or wired communication systems.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A massive, multi-vector missile and UAV "revenge" strike targeting Kyiv or the Sumy logistics hub within the next 6-12 hours, coordinated with newly deployed military satellite data (from today’s Soyuz launch) to maximize impact on UA C2 nodes.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Expect continued UAV transits through central Ukraine (Poltava/Cherkasy). The situation in Moscow regarding Alekseev may trigger immediate internal security (FSB) "filtration" operations. Frontline connectivity for Russian units will likely remain degraded, providing a window for UA localized counter-attacks or repositioning.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Confirm current status (alive/deceased) of Gen-Lt Alekseev; his death would significantly disrupt GRU-directed hybrid operations.
[HIGH] Assess the extent of Russian "Rubicon" drone operational pauses following the Starlink blockade.
[MEDIUM] Monitor for the deployment of "new hardware" showcased by Rostec in the Zaporizhzhia or Kharkiv sectors.
[URGENT] Identify any SIGINT indicators of Russian strategic aviation (Tu-95/Tu-160) preparing for a retaliatory wave.
