GRU LEADERSHIP CRISIS: General-Lieutenant Vladimir Alekseev remains in critical condition/ICU following a shooting in Moscow; Russian state media and milbloggers are framing him as a "key negotiator," suggesting internal or external disruption of back-channel communications (0803Z-0819Z, Multiple Sources, HIGH).
MOSCOW AIRSPACE RESTRICTIONS: "Plan Kovyor" (Carpet) has been activated at Domodedovo and Zhukovsky airports due to reported UAV threats, signaling an expansion of the kinetic envelope to the Russian capital (0823Z, Operativno ZSU, MEDIUM).
LOSS OF DEHTYARNE (KHARKIV): Open-source mapping (DeepState) confirms Russian forces have occupied the settlement of Dehtyarne in the Kharkiv region, marking a localized tactical setback (0824Z, Tsaplienko, HIGH).
SUMY RAIL LOGISTICS STRUCK: Thermal footage confirms a Russian "Geran" (Shahed) UAV strike on a railway line and a train carrying military equipment near Trostyanets, Sumy region (0817Z, Colonelcassad, HIGH).
MILITARY SPACE LAUNCH: Russia successfully placed military satellites into orbit via a Soyuz-2.1b carrier rocket, likely aimed at enhancing SIGINT/IMINT capabilities during the current offensive (0816Z, Basurin, HIGH).
UAV PROBES PERSIST: Multiple groups of Russian UAVs are currently transiting Sumy toward Poltava and heading toward Kharkiv city (0808Z-0810Z, Air Force UA, HIGH).
Operational picture (by sector)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
Battlefield Geometry: The frontline has seen a tactical shift in the Kharkiv Sector with the Russian occupation of Dehtyarne. This suggests a widening of Russian pressure points beyond the traditional Kupyansk/Donetsk axes.
Logistics: The strike on the Trostyanets rail hub (Sumy) indicates a deliberate Russian effort to interdict the flow of Western materiel or reinforcements moving toward the northern front.
Weather: Continued extreme cold (-27°C) is exacerbating the impact of any successful strikes on energy or logistics infrastructure.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat assessment)
Command and Control (C2): The confirmation that Alekseev is in the ICU (0812Z, Voenkor Kotenok) indicates a prolonged period of instability within the GRU. The Russian information space is reacting with high volatility, suggesting potential "revenge" or "escalation" narratives are being prepared.
Tactical Capabilities: RU MoD claims to have destroyed Ukrainian Ground Robotic Complexes (UGVs) in the Kostiantynivka sector (0822Z, TASS). While UNCONFIRMED, this points to an increasing intensity of unmanned-vs-unmanned engagements.
New Hardware: Rostec has officially presented new undisclosed military hardware (0805Z, Two Majors); analysts should monitor for the first tactical deployment of these systems, likely "smart" loitering munitions or electronic warfare (EW) modules.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue force tracking)
Air Defense (AD): UA Air Force remains highly active, successfully tracking and vectoring against Shahed swarms in the Sumy-Poltava corridor. However, "Plan Kovyor" in Moscow suggests Ukrainian long-range UAV assets are successfully penetrating Russian interior airspace, providing a symmetric threat.
Logistics Readiness: The rail strike in Trostyanets requires immediate damage assessment and rerouting of northern supply lines.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive domain)
Internal Purges: The 50-year ban on comedian Nurlan Saburov (0812Z, Alex Parker) and investigations into "SVO" veteran fraud in Khabarovsk (0809Z, TASS) indicate the Kremlin is tightening internal social controls to prevent domestic unrest following leadership assassinations and energy instability.
Propaganda: The official accreditation of "Mash on Donbas" by the DNR administration (0808Z) suggests a coordinated push to professionalize and centralize pro-Russian "military correspondent" (voenkor) narratives for the spring phase.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future operations)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Russia will utilize the "Plan Kovyor" disruption in Moscow as a pretext for a heavy retaliatory UAV/missile wave tonight, specifically targeting Kyiv’s already strained energy grid and Sumy’s rail intersections.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): Utilizing the satellite coverage from today’s Soyuz launch, Russia identifies and strikes a primary UA military C2 node in the Kharkiv/Sumy region during the confusion caused by the Alekseev assassination fallout.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
High probability of escalated air activity over Kyiv, Sumy, and Poltava. The tactical loss of Dehtyarne may indicate a Russian attempt to create a "buffer zone" or a new jump-off point in the Kharkiv sector. Expect increased FSB "anti-terror" operations across Moscow and occupied territories.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Determine the exact status of the Trostyanets rail line. Is the trackage severed or just the rolling stock damaged?
[HIGH] Identify the "new hardware" showcased by Rostec. Cross-reference with thermal/SIGINT signatures in the Kostiantynivka sector.
[MEDIUM] Corroborate RU MoD claims regarding the destruction of UA UGVs.
[URGENT] Monitor RU strategic bomber bases (Engels/Olenya) for movement following the Soyuz satellite deployment.
