ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT ON GRU LEADERSHIP: General-Lieutenant Vladimir Alekseev, First Deputy Head of the GRU, was shot multiple times outside his home in NW Moscow. He is hospitalized in critical condition. (0741Z, TASS/STERNENKO, HIGH).
SHAHED SWARM ACTIVITY: Continued Shahed-136/131 (UAV) incursions are reported moving SW through Sumy and toward Kropyvnytskyi, Zaporizhzhia, and Chernihiv (0739Z-0753Z, Air Force UA/Nikolaevskiy Vanek, HIGH).
MISSILE THREAT ABATED: All-clear signals issued for Kyiv and regional missile threats; however, UAV threats remain active (0750Z-0751Z, AFU Air Force/KMVA, HIGH).
KYIV ENERGY STRIKE WARNING: Intelligence indicators suggest a massed Russian strike targeting the energy infrastructure of Kyiv and the surrounding oblast within the next 48 hours (0755Z, Tsaplienko/ERadar, MEDIUM).
71st PRISONER EXCHANGE CONFIRMED: Local authorities confirm the return of Ukrainian personnel following a successful swap (0749Z, Oleh Syniehubov, HIGH).
RU FPV STRIKES IN DONETSK: Pro-Russian sources released footage of FPV drone strikes against a Ukrainian ammunition depot and a Humvee in the Novopavlovka/Rayskoye sector (0759Z, DNR NM, MEDIUM).
Operational picture (by sector)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
Battlefield Geometry: The front remains static but highly kinetic in the Donbas. Russia is leveraging "sensor-to-shooter" cycles using FPV drones against tactical logistics (Novopavlovka). In the north (Sumy/Chernihiv), Russia is utilizing UAV corridors to probe air defense (AD) density.
Weather Factor: Sustained extreme cold (-27°C) remains the primary operational constraint. This environmental factor amplifies the strategic significance of the reported 48h warning regarding Kyiv’s energy grid.
Space/Strategic: Russia successfully launched a carrier rocket for a military spacecraft, likely intended to replenish imagery or signals intelligence (SIGINT) constellations (0744Z, MoD Russia).
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat assessment)
Command and Control (C2): The hit on Gen-Lt Alekseev—a primary architect of hybrid warfare and clandestine operations—represents a major disruption to GRU operational continuity. Internal Russian reports suggest he lacked security, indicating a catastrophic failure in Russian protective services (0802Z, Alex Parker).
UAV Tactics: Multiple small groups of "Shaheds" are being used to saturate various axes (Kropyvnytskyi, Zaporizhzhia, Sumy) simultaneously. This is likely intended to map "gaps" in AD coverage following the morning's massed missile strikes.
Technological Adaptation: Deployment of UGV (Unmanned Ground Vehicle) concepts and "robot mines" is being emphasized in RU propaganda, suggesting a shift toward automated perimeter defense to compensate for personnel fatigue (0747Z, Colonelcassad).
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue force tracking)
Defensive Posture: The "Khartia" Search and Strike Group continues successful sorties in the Kupyansk sector, maintaining the integrity of the line against Russian probes (0747Z, Butusov Plus).
Personnel: The successful 71st prisoner exchange remains a vital morale-stabilizing event amid the sustained winter offensive.
Logistics/Resource Status: High alert for energy maintenance crews in the Kyiv region following specific strike warnings.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive domain)
Internal Russian Crackdown: RU authorities have banned comedian Nurlan Saburov (50 years) and designated Mikhail Khodorkovsky's publications as "extremist," signaling an intensification of the "internal purge" following the Alekseev assassination attempt (0737Z-0801Z, TASS).
UA Morale Ops: Ukrainian channels are highlighting Alekseev's origins (Vinnytsia region) to frame him as a "mankurt" (traitor to his roots), maximizing the psychological impact of the assassination attempt (0802Z, Operativno ZSU).
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future operations)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Russia will continue localized Shahed swarms over the next 6-12 hours to prevent Ukrainian AD from repositioning. This will be followed by a transition to "rest and refit" for bomber aviation ahead of the predicted 48h strike window.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A coordinated "double-tap" strike where Shaheds drain AD interceptors, followed immediately by a second wave of Kinzhals targeting the already damaged TPP-4 and other heating hubs in Kyiv during the -27°C temperature trough.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Expect continued "intermittent" air raid sirens across Central and Northern Ukraine as Shaheds transit the Sumy-Chernihiv corridor. Russian internal security (FSB) is expected to implement "Fortress" protocols in Moscow following the GRU shooting, potentially slowing military-bureaucratic decision-making.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[URGENT] Verify the specific source of the "48h energy strike" warning. Is this based on SIGINT (bomber prep) or IMINT (missile loading at Engels/Olenya)?
[HIGH] Monitor RU military communications for signs of "revenge strikes" or shifts in targeting priorities following the Alekseev hit.
[MEDIUM] BDA (Battle Damage Assessment) for the reported UA ammo depot loss in Novopavlovka.
[LOW] Track the impact of the Bitcoin 16-month low on RU volunteer crowdfunding, which often utilizes crypto-wallets to bypass banking sanctions.
