STARLINK DISRUPTION & FRATRICIDE: Partisan group "ATESH" reports mass Starlink terminal failures among Russian units, leading to significant "friendly fire" incidents, specifically on the Zaporizhzhia axis (0527Z, RBK-UA/ATESH, MEDIUM).
UAV MANEUVER: A group of Russian UAVs has transited from northern Sumy Oblast and is now on a heading toward Chernihiv Oblast (0528Z, UA Air Force, HIGH).
TARGETED INFRASTRUCTURE ATTRITION: Russian tactical doctrine has shifted toward destroying power distribution nodes and substations rather than generation plants (NPPs/HPPs) to isolate consumers while preserving assets for potential future use (0526Z, Dnevnik Desantnika, MEDIUM).
INTERNAL SECURITY (ODESA): A car explosion in Odesa resulted in the death of a 21-year-old male; law enforcement investigation is ongoing to determine if this was a targeted sabotage or a criminal incident (0530Z, RBK-UA/Suspilne, MEDIUM).
ZAPORIZHZHIA RECOVERY: Despite overnight strikes in Vilniansk that killed two civilians, the Regional Military Administration (OVA) confirms 100% restoration of the power grid for affected subscribers (0508Z/0510Z, Zaporizhzhia OVA, HIGH).
RU TACTICAL ADAPTATION: Russian forces are increasingly deploying fiber-optic "KVN" FPV drones (immune to Electronic Warfare) to target UAF mobile artillery (0533Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM).
Operational picture (by sector)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
Battlefield Geometry: The conflict is characterized by high-intensity "asymmetric maneuvers." While ground lines of communication (GLOCs) are stagnant due to extreme cold (-27°C), the air and electromagnetic domains are highly active.
Weather Factor: Environmental conditions continue to favor defensive postures and long-range strikes over coordinated ground maneuvers.
Grid Status: Ukraine's ability to rapidly repair distribution nodes in Zaporizhzhia indicates high resilience, but Russia’s focus on "distribution isolation" (targeting the links between NPPs and cities) poses a persistent threat to the national heating system.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat assessment)
C2 & Communications: The implementation of the Ukrainian "White List" for Starlink (per previous daily report) is having a cascading effect. Reported "friendly fire" in the Zaporizhzhia sector suggests a breakdown in Russian tactical coordination and situational awareness (0527Z).
Tactical Changes: The use of fiber-optic FPV drones ("KVN") against 2S1 "Gvozdyka" units demonstrates a transition to EW-resistant strike platforms. This bypasses traditional Ukrainian jamming bubbles.
Course of Action: Russia is likely concentrating on "sector-specific isolation," using UAV swarms (Sumy to Chernihiv) to trigger air defense responses while simultaneously striking vulnerable energy distribution hubs.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue force tracking)
Force Posture: UAF units are successfully leveraging the "Starlink Blackout" to induce chaos in Russian frontline C2.
Air Defense: Units in the North (Sumy/Chernihiv) are tracking a shifting UAV threat. The westward movement of the drone group suggests a widening of the strike radius to stretch AD coverage.
Resilience: Strategic success in restoring Zaporizhzhia's grid within 24 hours of a kinetic strike maintains civil stability and supports logistical hubs.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive domain)
Sabotage Narratives: The Odesa car explosion (0530Z) is being closely monitored. There is a medium probability (Dempster-Shafer: 0.089) of a sabotage operation intended to create rear-area panic.
Technological Propaganda: Russian sources are amplifying the "KVN" fiber-optic drone successes to project a narrative of technological parity despite the Starlink setbacks (0525Z, Basurin).
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future operations)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Russian forces will attempt to re-establish C2 using wired or localized radio links to mitigate the Starlink blackout, while increasing the frequency of fiber-optic FPV strikes to compensate for EW vulnerability.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): Exploiting the UAV transit into Chernihiv to launch a multi-axis missile strike on Kyiv’s distribution hubs, capitalizing on the high power demand during the current cold snap.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Expect continued UAV alerts in Chernihiv and potentially Kyiv Oblasts. Frontline reports of Russian fratricide may increase as the "Starlink Blackout" impacts wider sectors. Odesa remains a high-risk zone for internal security disruptions.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] SIGINT/HUMINT confirmation of Russian "friendly fire" scale on the Zaporizhzhia axis to determine if a tactical opening for a counter-thrust exists.
[HIGH] Technical evaluation of "KVN" fiber-optic drone range to establish safe standoff distances for UAF mobile artillery.
[MEDIUM] Attribution of the Odesa explosion; monitoring for signs of an active sabotage-reconnaissance group (DRG).
[MEDIUM] Impact of the US "leave Iran" advisory on Russian-Iranian drone/missile supply chains.
