SUMY SECTOR ENGAGEMENT: Multi-UAV attack is ongoing. Drones are reportedly utilizing "ultra-low altitude" flight profiles to bypass radar detection (0454Z, Tsaplienko/Air Force, HIGH).
ZAPORIZHZHIA CASUALTIES & RECOVERY: Two civilians confirmed dead following overnight strikes. However, regional authorities report the power grid is fully restored for all consumers in the regional center (0440Z/0453Z, Zaporizhzhia OVA, HIGH).
VREMIVKA SECTOR AIR STRIKES: Russian 11th Air Force/AD Army (Vostok Group) launched concentrated strikes against UAF positions in the vicinity of Horke, Liubytske, and Komsomolske (0500Z, Voin DV, MEDIUM).
UNCONFIRMED TERRITORIAL CLAIMS: Pro-Russian sources claim the capture of Lukyanivske and Pavlivka (Zaporizhzhia direction) between Dec 2025 and Feb 2026; visual confirmation of current control remains absent (0502Z, Rybar, UNCONFIRMED/LOW).
DIPLOMATIC FRICTION: Internal disagreement reported between Estonian President Alar Karis and PM Kristen Michal regarding the appointment of an EU special envoy for negotiations with Russia (0447Z, TASS/Bloomberg, MEDIUM).
KHERSON CASUALTIES: One civilian injured in evening shelling of Kherson (0448Z, RBK-UA, HIGH).
ENEMY ATTRITION: GS AFU reports 720 Russian personnel losses over the last 24 hours (0445Z, GS AFU, HIGH).
Operational picture (by sector)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
Battlefield Geometry: The focus has shifted to the Zaporizhzhia and Vremivka axes in the south, while the air domain remains contested over Sumy.
Weather Factor: Persistence of extreme cold (-27°C) remains the primary operational constraint, though Zaporizhzhia’s successful grid restoration indicates effective emergency response despite the temperature.
Control Measures: Russian forces are actively attempting to flatten tactical salients in the Vremivka sector through increased sorties.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat assessment)
Aviation Tactics: The 11th Air Force's activity in the Vremivka sector indicates a shift from simple harassment to systematic suppression of Ukrainian frontline positions (Horke, Liubytske).
UAV Adaptation: The use of "ultra-low altitude" drones in Sumy suggests the RU MoD is adjusting tactics to counter the improved interception rates seen over Kyiv.
Attrition Rate: 720 personnel losses in 24 hours suggests that while Russia is making tactical claims (Lukyanivske/Pavlivka), they are doing so at a high cost, likely involving high-intensity "meat" assaults.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue force tracking)
Frontline Resilience: UAF units in the Vremivka sector are under heavy pressure from Russian tactical aviation.
Logistical Recovery: The rapid restoration of electricity in Zaporizhzhia (0453Z) demonstrates a high level of preparedness and resilience in utility repair units, mitigating the intended effect of the overnight strikes.
Defensive Posture: AD assets in the North are currently prioritizing the low-altitude UAV threat over Sumy.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive domain)
Negotiation Narratives: TASS is actively promoting reports of "Odesa security guarantees" and EU-internal friction (Estonia). This is likely an effort to project a narrative of Western exhaustion and readiness for a frozen conflict.
Disinformation Beliefs: Analytic models show a high probability (0.42) of active disinformation campaigns, particularly concerning territorial gains and diplomatic splits.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future operations)
Most Likely COA (MLCOA): Continued UAV saturation of Sumy to fix Ukrainian AD units in place while Russian tactical aviation expands its strike zone in the Zaporizhzhia/Vremivka sectors.
Most Dangerous COA (MDCOA): Russian forces utilize the claimed "liberation" of Lukyanivske as a springboard for a deeper push toward the H-15 highway, attempting to sever logistics to the southern front during the peak of the cold snap.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Expect continued kinetic activity in the Vremivka sector. The situation in Sumy will remain critical until the current UAV wave is neutralized. Russian state media will likely amplify any perceived Western diplomatic discord to undermine UAF morale.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[HIGH] Visual verification (GEOINT) of the status of Lukyanivske and Pavlivka to confirm or refute Rybar’s claims.
[MEDIUM] SIGINT/ELINT support to identify the launch points of the low-altitude UAVs targeting Sumy.
[LOW] Monitor for confirmation of the rumored "security guarantees for Odesa" to determine if this is a genuine back-channel discussion or purely a TASS fabrication.
