EXPANSION OF KAB STRIKE RADIUS (0853Z-0854Z, Air Force UA, HIGH): Following earlier strikes in Donetsk, Russian aviation has launched KAB guided bombs targeting Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts.
NEGOTIATION ULTIMATUM (DONBAS) (0900Z-0905Z, TASS/RBC-UA, MEDIUM): Pro-Russian sources report a new ultimatum in Abu Dhabi; Moscow is reportedly demanding international recognition of the Donbas as Russian territory as a prerequisite for any peace treaty.
RAPID RESPONSE FORCE PROPOSAL (0854Z, TASS, LOW): UNCONFIRMED reports suggest Western negotiators are proposing "rapid response multinational forces" rather than traditional blue-helmet peacekeepers to provide security guarantees for Ukraine.
POLISH-UKRAINIAN DIPLOMATIC SOLIDARITY (0903Z, Zelenskiy/Official, HIGH): Polish PM Donald Tusk is currently in Kyiv for high-level meetings and commemorations, signaling continued European political support despite the extreme weather and kinetic pressure.
HYBRID CYBER OPERATIONS (ITALY) (0910Z, ASTRA, MEDIUM): Pro-Russian hacker collective "NoName057(16)" has targeted Italian Olympic infrastructure and diplomatic sites, citing Italy's support for Ukraine as the motive.
RUSSIAN C2 CLAIMS (0906Z, MoD Russia, LOW): The Russian Ministry of Defense claims to have destroyed several Ukrainian UAV command posts in the "Zapad" sector using Msta-S artillery.
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Sector (Slobozhansky/Kupyansk):
Slobozhansky Axis: No significant changes since 0850Z. Positional fighting continues under extreme cold conditions (-25°C).
Kupyansk Axis: Russian MoD claims artillery success against UAF drone command posts (0906Z). While unconfirmed, this aligns with the Russian 68th ORB's focus on "anti-robot" tactics mentioned in the previous report.
Eastern Sector (Donbas):
Donetsk Axis: The focus of Russian diplomatic pressure. The new ultimatum regarding international recognition of the Donbas (0905Z) indicates that RU ground operations in Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka are intended to provide leverage for these specific demands.
Strategic Rear/Frontline: The launch of KABs into Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk (0853Z) represents a significant westward shift in aerial pressure, likely aimed at disrupting UAF logistics hubs feeding the southern front.
Kherson: No new tactical updates since 0850Z.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Adaptations:
Standoff Aerial Pressure: Russia is leaning heavily on KAB strikes across three separate oblasts (Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk). This is likely a counter-measure to the reported Starlink C2 disruptions, prioritizing high-yield aviation over real-time drone-coordinated ground assaults.
UAV Hunter-Killer Teams: Increasing reports of RU artillery (Msta-S) being tasked specifically against Ukrainian UAV command posts suggests a refined "counter-drone" fire mission profile.
Logistics & Sustainment:
Infrastructure Targeting: Russian MoD confirms a focus on transport and energy infrastructure "used in AFU interests" (0907Z). This corroborates the "City-Kill" strategy identified in the daily report.
Internal Disruptions: A major outage of Russia’s "T-Bank" application (0918Z) indicates either a technical failure or a retaliatory cyber-strike, potentially impacting RU civilian and low-level logistical transactions.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Tactical Posture:
Active Defense: UAF drone units (Nemesis/412th) continue to maintain high attrition rates against Russian infantry in the Donbas.
OSINT/Electronic Intelligence: Reports indicate UAF is actively "cataloging" all Russian UAV types (0856Z), likely to refine EW jamming profiles and identify new fiber-optic variants (Rubicon).
Diplomatic Maneuvers:
The presence of the Polish PM in Kyiv during a peak kinetic/energy crisis (0903Z) is a critical morale booster and reaffirms the "security by solidarity" pillar of the Ukrainian defense strategy.
Information environment / disinformation
Negotiation "Leaks": The sudden influx of reports regarding "multinational forces" and "Donbas recognition" (0854Z, 0905Z) appears to be a coordinated effort by Russian state media to frame the Abu Dhabi talks on Moscow's terms.
Strategic Deflection: Russian channels are amplifying UK domestic political issues (Starmer resignation rumors) and "3-day invasion of Lithuania" scenarios to distract from the high casualty rates (RU MoD claiming 1,300+ UAF casualties is a likely projection of their own stress).
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Continued KAB saturation of Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk to fix UAF reserves and damage logistics. High probability of a multi-domain strike (missiles/UAVs) on the Kharkiv or Kyiv energy grids tonight as temperatures remain at lethal lows.
MDCOA: A breakdown in the Abu Dhabi talks leads to an immediate Russian escalation against "decision-making centers" in Kyiv during the Polish PM's visit to maximize political impact.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[HIGH] Corroborate Russian claims of destroying UAV command posts. Determine if this indicates a loss of specific technical capabilities (e.g., fiber-optic control hubs).
[MEDIUM] Assess the impact of the T-Bank outage on Russian volunteer/logistical funding streams.
[MEDIUM] Monitor the westbound UAVs over Sumy (0858Z) to identify if they are conducting reconnaissance for a follow-on missile strike or acting as decoys for KAB runs.
[LOW] Verify the status of the "multinational force" proposal; determine if this originates from Western participants or is a Russian trial balloon.
