CRITICAL C2 DISRUPTION (STARLINK) (0825Z, Serhiy "Flash"/RBC-UA, MEDIUM): Intelligence indicates a "catastrophe" for Russian frontline units due to mass Starlink blocking. This follows yesterday's unconfirmed rumors of system deactivation and suggests a targeted technical interdiction affecting Russian-operated terminals.
KAB STRIKES INITIATED (0845Z, Air Force UA, HIGH): Multiple launches of KAB (guided glide bombs) detected targeting the Donetsk sector, specifically near the Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka axes.
AERIAL THREAT OVER BRYANSK (0844Z, AV Bogomaz, HIGH): Russian authorities have declared a "UAV Danger" alert for Bryansk Oblast, ordering civilians to shelters. This suggests a continuation of the Ukrainian "symmetric pressure" campaign.
NEGOTIATION PARAMETERS (0833Z, Operatsiya Z, MEDIUM): Reports from Abu Dhabi indicate the "Great Deal" agenda has expanded to include specific ceasefire mechanisms and "economic issues," alongside territorial disputes.
TACTICAL SUCCESS IN LYMAN (0826Z, 0844Z, Butusov/Tsapliienko, HIGH): Ukrainian search-and-strike groups, supported by the "Signum" drone unit, successfully liquidated Russian infiltration groups and took prisoners in the Lyman sector.
POWER INSTABILITY IN BELGOROD (0844Z, Operativno ZSU, MEDIUM): Confirmed localized power outages in Belgorod Oblast following recent strikes; Russian regional authorities are receiving emergency humanitarian aid from Vologda (0821Z).
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Sector (Kharkiv/Kupyansk):
Slobozhansky Axis: Intense clashes reported near Prylipka and Vovchansk. Russian forces are maintaining pressure on the border settlements to fix UAF reserves (GSZSU, 0827Z).
Kupyansk Axis: Fighting localized near Kindrashivka. No significant change in the line of control (GSZSU, 0827Z).
Eastern Sector (Donbas):
Lyman Axis: High-intensity engagements near Drobysheve and Stavky. UAF is actively counter-attacking infiltration points. Successful capture of Russian personnel confirms persistent UAF tactical ISR dominance in this sector (0826Z).
Pokrovsk Axis: Most active combat zone. Clashes reported at the outskirts of Rodynske and Pokrovsk. Russian forces are attempting to exploit the logistics hub's proximity (GSZSU, 0827Z).
Sloviansk/Kramatorsk Axis: Russian 68th Separate Reconnaissance Battalion (ORB) continues targeting UAF ground robotics (UGVs) and HMMWVs near Mykolaivka and Novohryhorivka using FPV drones (Colonelcassad, 0841Z).
Kostiantynivka Axis: Clashes reported near Kleban-Byk and Yablunivka. RU is utilizing KABs to soften defensive lines (0845Z).
Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson):
Orikhiv/Huliaipole: Russian aviation conducted strikes on Stepnohirsk and Mala Tokmachka. Ground assaults near Huliaipole were reported but remains largely a positional "war of nerves" (GSZSU, 0827Z).
Kherson: UAF successfully repelled two Russian assaults on the left bank (Krynky/Dnieper islands area) (GSZSU, 0827Z).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Adaptations:
C2 Fragility: The reported mass blocking of Starlink terminals used by Russian forces (0825Z) represents a significant vulnerability. Russian tactical units have become increasingly dependent on Starlink for FPV drone feeds and real-time coordination. A sustained outage will likely lead to a temporary reduction in RU offensive tempo.
Aviation Surge: The immediate launch of KABs (0845Z) suggests RU is leaning into its "stand-off" capabilities (aviation and glide bombs) to compensate for any degradation in frontline C2 or ground-based drone coordination.
Logistics & Sustainment:
Infrastructure Stress: Continued power issues in Belgorod and the arrival of aid from distant Russian regions (Vologda) indicate that Ukrainian deep strikes are successfully taxing Russian internal logistics and civil administration (0821Z, 0844Z).
Friendly activity (UAF)
Tactical Successes:
Counter-Infiltration: The "Signum" unit’s performance in the Lyman sector demonstrates the effectiveness of integrating elite drone teams with search-and-strike infantry to clear "gray zone" penetrations.
Deep Pressure: UAV operations over Bryansk continue to force Russian air defense assets to remain in the rear, potentially thinning the AD cover on the immediate frontline.
Constraints:
Environmental Factors: Hazardous road conditions due to ice and extreme cold (-25°C to -27°C) are significantly slowing logistics and casualty evacuation (Patrol Police, 0837Z).
Kyiv Preparedness: City authorities have finalized a "long-term blackout" plan, suggesting that repairs to the Darnytsia CHP (hit at 0756Z) may be more extensive than initially hoped (0846Z).
Information environment / disinformation
Starlink Narrative War: Ukrainian sources are highlighting a Russian "catastrophe" (0825Z), while Russian-aligned channels (Alex Parker) are pivoting to the launch of Starlink in Tajikistan (0825Z) to suggest geopolitical maneuvers or "backdoor" access.
Negotiation Ambiguity: Russian channels are beginning to frame the Abu Dhabi talks as "stalled" or "secretive" (Basurin, 0831Z), likely to manage domestic expectations if a ceasefire is not immediately achieved.
Legal Repression: The Supreme Court of Russia's ban on AI in election campaigning (0831Z) and the disappearance of human rights activists in Donetsk (0842Z) indicate a tightening of the domestic information space during the sensitive negotiation period.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): Russian forces will attempt to regain C2 stability while maintaining pressure via KAB strikes on the Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka line. UAF will likely continue "symmetric" UAV strikes on Russian border regions (Bryansk/Belgorod).
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): A breakdown in Russian C2 (due to Starlink blocking) leads to "blind" artillery and KAB strikes on Ukrainian urban centers to prevent UAF from exploiting Russian tactical confusion.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Verify the technical nature of the Starlink blocking. Is this a SpaceX geofencing update, a Ukrainian electronic warfare (EW) success, or a Russian internal security measure?
[HIGH] Monitor for any Russian "revenge" strikes on Western satellite ground stations or infrastructure following the Starlink disruption.
[MEDIUM] BDA on the Darnytsia CHP strike remains the priority for Kyiv's civilian survival over the next 48 hours.
[LOW] Track the movement of Russian 68th ORB units to see if their "anti-robot" drone tactics are being exported to other sectors.
