CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE STRIKE (0756Z, Шеф Hayabusa, HIGH): Confirmed significant missile strike on the Darnytsia Combined Heat and Power Plant (CHP) in Kyiv. This represents an escalation of the "City-Kill" strategy targeting civilian heating during extreme cold.
DIPLOMATIC TERMS CRYSTALLIZING (0758Z, TASS, MEDIUM): Russian sources in Abu Dhabi report that Moscow's "Great Deal" requirement includes universal international recognition of the Donbas as Russian territory.
FRENCH-RUSSIAN BACKCHANNEL CONFIRMED (0757Z, Operativno ZSU/Reuters, HIGH): Reports confirm a representative of Emmanuel Macron held talks in Moscow with Putin's advisors last Tuesday, specifically focused on Ukraine.
MASS UAV INTERDICTION OVER RU (0754Z, TASS, MEDIUM): Russia claims to have intercepted 95 Ukrainian UAVs across multiple regions; casualties reported in Bataysk.
INTERNAL RUSSIAN PURGE/CRACKDOWN (0755Z, 0807Z, ASTRA/Dnevnik Desantnika, HIGH): Coordinated law enforcement actions against Communist Party (CPRF) reps in Altai Krai and the arrest of ex-Roszhilkompleks head Abramenkov for 1bn ruble fraud indicate tightening domestic control and anti-corruption optics within the MoD.
AERIAL THREAT EXPANSION (0809Z, 0815Z, Air Force UA, HIGH): New UAV vectors identified over Cherkasy (heading for Zolotonosha) and Mykolaiv (approaching from the southwest).
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern/Central Sector (Kyiv & Cherkasy):
The strike on the Darnytsia CHP (0756Z) is the primary operational event. This targets the heating heart of the capital during a period of -25°C temperatures. Concurrently, UAVs are probing the Cherkasy region (0809Z), likely identifying gaps in the inner-tier air defense ring protecting the Dnieper logistics corridor.
Eastern Sector (Donetsk/Sloviansk-Kramatorsk):
Sloviansk-Kramatorsk Axis: Russian forces are reportedly deploying drones specifically to hunt Ukrainian Unmanned Ground Vehicles (UGVs/Robots) (0805Z). This indicates an evolution in the "war of drones" where RU is prioritizing the destruction of UAF's autonomous logistics/combat platforms.
Raiske/Torske: The Russian 68th Separate Reconnaissance Battalion (ORB) is actively engaged in targeting UAF equipment (0802Z). This suggests high-intensity reconnaissance-strike loops in the Lyman-Siversk direction.
Kharkiv: Rear-area security remains a priority following the arrest of a university lecturer for high treason (0800Z), highlighting persistent Russian HUMINT efforts in the city.
Southern Sector (Mykolaiv/Zaporizhzhia):
A new UAV threat is approaching Mykolaiv from the southwest (0815Z). This vector suggests a launch from the Black Sea or the Kinburn Spit, likely intended to harass port infrastructure or air defense assets.
Russian Border/Rear:
UAF has conducted a mass drone operation (95 units) targeting Russian regions (0754Z). Cross-border strikes continue in Belgorod, with two civilians injured (0813Z). This demonstrates UAF's intent to maintain "symmetric pressure" on Russian domestic stability.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Changes:
Anti-UGV Operations: Russian drone units are now specifically task-organized to counter Ukrainian ground robotics (0805Z). This suggests UAF ground robots have reached a level of tactical significance that requires a dedicated RU counter-effort.
Infrastructure Attrition: The Darnytsia CHP strike (0756Z) confirms Russia is willing to target the most sensitive utility hubs in the capital to create maximum leverage for the Abu Dhabi talks.
Logistics & Sustainment:
Internal Cleanup: The arrest of Abramenkov (0807Z) for fraud related to military housing/infrastructure suggests the Kremlin is attempting to streamline its military-industrial bureaucracy or remove inefficient actors as the "long war" continues.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Tactical Successes:
Symmetric Deep Strikes: The launch of nearly 100 UAVs against Russian territory (0754Z) indicates UAF maintains significant long-range strike capacity despite the ongoing energy crisis.
Counter-Intelligence: The detention of a high-value suspect in Kharkiv (0800Z) disrupts a localized Russian intelligence cell.
Resource Requirements:
Emergency Power/Heat: The hit on Darnytsia CHP will likely trigger an immediate requirement for mobile heating units and high-capacity transformers to prevent pipe-bursting in Kyiv.
Information environment / disinformation
Negotiation Framing: Kirill Dmitriev (RDIF) is the primary face of Russian messaging in Abu Dhabi, promoting a narrative of "positive progress" while blaming the UK and Europe for attempting to sabotage peace (0801Z, 0805Z). This is a clear attempt to isolate European hardliners from the US negotiating team.
Starlink Claims: Unconfirmed Russian reports (Alex Parker, 0814Z) suggest a potential agreement to disable Starlink as part of the talks. CONFIDENCE: LOW. This is likely a psychological operation aimed at demoralizing UAF frontline units who rely on the system.
Diplomatic Friction: Russian State Duma's Volodin attacking Estonia's Kallas (0815Z) serves to maintain a high-friction environment with NATO's eastern flank.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Continued UAV probes in Mykolaiv and Cherkasy to fix UAF air defenses while further KAB or missile strikes target the energy grid during the night-time temperature drop.
MDCOA: A coordinated missile salvo targeting the remaining functional nodes of the Kyiv heating grid, timed to coincide with a critical impasse in the Abu Dhabi Day 2 evening sessions.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[HIGH] Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) for Darnytsia CHP. Determine the percentage of heating capacity lost and the estimated time to repair.
[HIGH] Corroborate the Starlink "deactivation" rumor. Monitor satellite link stability across frontline sectors for any unusual outages.
[MEDIUM] Identify the specific units or technology Russia is using for the "anti-robot" drone operations in the Sloviansk axis.
[MEDIUM] Verify the intent behind the French-Russian backchannel. Assess if this signals a breakdown in the unified "Ramstein" diplomatic front.
