Situation Report

Situation Update (0631Z FEB 05 2026)

Key updates since last sitrep

• MASSIVE AERIAL ASSAULT OVERNIGHT (0615Z, Operativnyi ZSU, HIGH): UA Air Force confirms the launch of 183 UAVs and 2 ballistic missiles. Air Defense (AD) successfully intercepted/suppressed 156 UAVs (approx. 85%), including roughly 110 Shahed-type drones.
• BALLISTIC MISSILE IMPACTS (0615Z, Operativnyi ZSU, HIGH): Both ballistic missiles launched overnight (0/2) evaded interception, likely striking targets in the southern or eastern sectors.
• STARLINK DISRUPTIONS CONFIRMED (0619Z, Dnevnik Desantnika, HIGH): Pro-Russian sources are actively seeking alternatives to Starlink due to widespread outages, corroborating previous reports of signal degradation.
• ACTIVE BALLISTIC THREAT (0616Z, Air Force UA, HIGH): A fresh alert has been issued for the threat of ballistic weaponry from the south-eastern direction.
• KINETIC PRESSURE ON KHARKIV (0607Z/0627Z, Air Force UA/Kharkiv OVA, HIGH): New UAV groups are currently approaching Kharkiv from the north. Over the past 24 hours, 8 settlements in the oblast have sustained strikes.
• RU LOGISTICAL REINFORCEMENT (0624Z, Kotsnews, MEDIUM): Large-scale transport of utility and off-road vehicles from the Yugra region to the front lines has been documented.
• RU RECRUITMENT INCENTIVES (0619Z, Lipetsk Gov, MEDIUM): Regional authorities (Lipetsk) have announced increased one-time payments for contract soldiers, indicating a continued push to bolster manpower without full mobilization.
• LDPR-CPC DIPLOMATIC ENGAGEMENT (0605Z, Starshiy Eddy, MEDIUM): A memorandum of cooperation was signed between the Russian LDPR party and the Communist Party of China (CPC) in Beijing, signaling deeper political integration.

Operational picture (by sector)

Northeast Sector (Kharkiv & Northern Borders): The "City-Kill" campaign remains the primary effort. New UAV vectors from the north (0607Z) suggest a continuous cycle of harassment and AD saturation. The impact on 8 settlements over 24 hours indicates a broadening of target sets beyond the city center to include provincial logistics nodes.

Southern & Southeastern Sector: The threat of ballistic strikes from the SE (0616Z) remains critical. The failure to intercept the two overnight ballistic missiles (0615Z) suggests Russia is successfully exploiting AD gaps or utilizing high-maneuverability munitions (e.g., Iskander-M or North Korean KN-23) that challenge existing terminal defenses in these regions.

Rear Areas & Infrastructure: The high interception rate of UAVs (156/183) demonstrates robust point defense for Shahed-type threats, but the volume of "suppressed" vs. "destroyed" units suggests a heavy reliance on Electronic Warfare (EW), which may be degraded by the ongoing magnetic/solar activity.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

Tactical Adaptations:

• GPS Degradation & Solar Exploitation: Continued weak magnetic storm activity (0626Z, TASS) and the X4.2 solar flare are being leveraged. The Russian request for Starlink alternatives (0619Z) suggests they are also suffering from the comms environment but are looking to pivot faster than UAF to un-jammed alternatives.
• Ground Robotics: Deployment of the "Courier" ground robotic complex (0604Z) indicates a move toward automating hazardous logistics or assault tasks to mitigate high personnel losses in urban/trench fighting.

Logistics and Sustainment:

• Civilian-to-Military Resource Shift: The "Narodny Front" logistical pipeline (0624Z) continues to bypass formal military supply chains, delivering thousands of civilian-sourced vehicles to the front, likely to replace lost light tactical mobility.
• Manpower Status: The increase in contract bonuses in Lipetsk (0619Z) suggests the RU MoD is struggling to meet recruitment quotas via standard packages, necessitating local financial intervention.

Friendly activity (UAF)

Defensive Operations: UAF AD has maintained high efficiency against loitering munitions (85% success). However, the 0% interception rate on ballistic targets in the last window represents a significant vulnerability that Russia is actively probing.

Logistics & Morale:

• State Special Transport Service (DSST): Recognition of DSST (0603Z) highlights the ongoing critical work of repairing rail and road infrastructure targeted by Russian strikes to maintain interior lines of communication.

Information environment / disinformation

Strategic Narrative Manipulation:

• EU Fragmentation: Russian channels are amplifying claims that Latvia and Estonia now favor "dialogue" with the Kremlin (0604Z), likely a disinformation effort to undermine Baltic unity and pressure Ukraine into concessions during Abu Dhabi talks.
• US Domestic Distraction: State media (TASS) is heavily promoting narratives of US internal discord, including Nike discrimination probes and election interference denials, to frame the US as an unstable partner (0609Z, 0617Z).

Outlook (next 6-12h)

• Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): A follow-on ballistic strike in the SE sector within the next 4-6 hours to capitalize on the previous successful penetrations and current AD alerts.
• Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): Russian forces utilize the Starlink/GPS "blind spot" created by the magnetic storm to launch a coordinated ground assault in the Kharkiv sector, supported by the recently arrived vehicle reinforcements and "Courier" robotic units.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

1. [CRITICAL] Determine why the 2 ballistic missiles were not intercepted—identify if it was due to AD saturation, technical failure, or the use of new munitions.
2. [HIGH] Confirm the current status of Starlink connectivity across the Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk fronts to assess UAF C2 resilience.
3. [MEDIUM] Monitor the movement of the Yugra vehicle convoy to identify which specific units/sectors are being reinforced.
4. [MEDIUM] Verify the validity of the Euronews report regarding Latvian/Estonian policy shifts toward the Kremlin.

//REPORT ENDS//