Situation Report

Situation Update (0600Z FEB 05 2026)

Key updates since last sitrep

• KINETIC STRIKE ON KYIV INFRASTRUCTURE (0547Z, KCMA, HIGH): Official reports confirm a Russian attack on civilian infrastructure in the capital. This expands the "City-Kill" campaign from Kharkiv to the central hub.
• SOUTHERN UAV VECTOR - ZAPORIZHZHIA (0547Z, Air Force UA, HIGH): A new wave of UAVs is approaching Zaporizhzhia from the south, creating a multi-axis aerial threat when combined with northern/eastern vectors.
• GRID RECOVERY - ZAPORIZHZHIA (0541Z, Zaporizhzhia OVA, MEDIUM): 50,044 consumers have been re-energized following previous strikes, though new UAV threats jeopardize these gains.
• KRYVYI RIH STATUS (0534Z, Oleksandr Vilkul, MEDIUM): Local authorities report the situation is "controlled" as of morning, suggesting no major kinetic impacts in the last 2 hours.
• RUSSIAN STRATEGIC POSTURING (0532Z, Colonelcassad, HIGH): RU MoD has released official infographics following the expiration of the New START treaty, emphasizing strategic limits that no longer apply.
• UAF DEEP STRIKE VERIFICATION (0534Z, RU MoD/ASTRA, HIGH): Russian MoD corroborates the scale of the UAF overnight operation, claiming the downing of "nearly a hundred" (95) UAVs.

Operational picture (by sector)

Kyiv & Central Sector: The strike on Kyiv civilian infrastructure (0547Z) marks a significant escalation in the ongoing winter wave. The timing (07:40 local) targets the start of the morning peak, likely aiming to maximize disruption to water and heating services during the extreme cold. Damage assessments are ongoing.

Southern Front (Zaporizhzhia & Kryvyi Rih): The operational tempo in the south is increasing. While Kryvyi Rih remains stable (0534Z), Zaporizhzhia is facing a fresh UAV threat from the south (0547Z). The successful restoration of power to 50,000 residents (0541Z) indicates UAF/Civilian resilience, but the grid remains fragile and is a primary target.

Northeast Sector (Kharkiv & Chernihiv): (Reference previous context) Kharkiv remains under extreme pressure from "high-speed" ballistic targets. No new kinetic impacts reported in the last 30 minutes, but the UAV group heading toward Ripky (Chernihiv) remains an active threat to northern AD corridors.

Enemy activity / threat assessment

Tactical Adaptations:

• Coordinated Multi-Axis Strikes: Russia is synchronizing strikes across the northern (Chernihiv/Kyiv), eastern (Kharkiv), and southern (Zaporizhzhia) axes. This is likely intended to saturate AD radar and force the depletion of interceptor stocks.
• Nuclear Signaling: The expiration of New START is being utilized for "reflexive control." Pro-Russian analysts (Dva Mayora, 0556Z) are framing the expiration as a necessity to counter hypothetical US "complex strikes" from the Arctic and Ukraine, signaling a shift toward an integrated nuclear-conventional deterrent posture.

Logistics and C2:

• Technological Sovereignty: Reports of the successful manufacture of a 3.12-meter mirror for aerospace optics (0541Z) suggest Russia is attempting to project a narrative of long-term technological resilience despite sanctions.
• Internal Friction: Reports of an SVO veteran arsonist in Kemerovo (0548Z) and a school stabbing in Krasnoyarsk (0541Z) point to ongoing "SVO syndrome" and social instability within the Russian rear, which may eventually impact mobilization morale.

Friendly activity (UAF)

Defensive Posture: UAF Air Defense is currently engaged in high-intensity intercepts across three distinct geographic sectors. The focus is on protecting the remaining energy nodes in Kyiv and Kharkiv as temperatures hover near -27°C.

Strategic Counter-Strikes: The RU MoD’s admission of 95 intercepted UAVs (0534Z) confirms that UAF is maintaining a high tempo of deep-strike operations, likely targeting Russian logistics hubs like the previously reported Kochetovka rail junction to relieve frontline pressure.

Information environment / disinformation

Nuclear Escalation Narrative: The expiration of New START is being heavily messaged to Western audiences to foster fear of an unconstrained nuclear arms race. The goal is likely to influence the Abu Dhabi negotiations by presenting "total war" as the only alternative to Russian terms.

Domestic Stability Messaging: Russian state media (TASS) is highlighting international disasters (Japan snowfalls, 0539Z) to deflect from domestic infrastructure failures and social violence involving returning veterans.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

• Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Continued UAV and missile pressure on the Kyiv-Kharkiv-Zaporizhzhia triangle. Russia will likely exploit the current "solar flare" window (degraded GPS) to conduct precision strikes on energy substations.
• Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A massed cruise missile launch (Tu-22M3/Tu-95) targeting the Dnipro hydro-infrastructure or Kyiv's remaining thermal power plants to trigger a permanent grid collapse before the next diplomatic session in Abu Dhabi.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

1. [URGENT] BDA for the 0547Z Kyiv strike: Identify if the target was a distribution substation or a generation facility.
2. [HIGH] Track the specific vector and altitude of the southern UAV wave approaching Zaporizhzhia; assess if these are Iranian-pattern Shaheds or the newer fiber-optic "Rubicon" variants.
3. [MEDIUM] Monitor Russian strategic aviation bases (Olenya, Engels-2) for engine start/taxiing activity following the expiration of New START.
4. [MEDIUM] Verify if the reported Starlink disruptions (from 0504Z) have persisted into the current Kyiv/Zaporizhzhia strike wave.

//REPORT ENDS//