KINETIC – ZAPORIZHZHIA ENGAGEMENT / MLRS STRIKE (0243Z, Russian Source, MEDIUM): Russian forces utilized "Geran" loitering munitions to identify Ukrainian Mobile Fire Groups (MFGs) on the Belenkoye-Kanevskoye line (west bank of the Dnipro). A "full packet" of Grad MLRS was reportedly fired at these positions.
AIR ALERT – ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST (0258Z, Zaporizhzhia OVA, HIGH): Official Ukrainian channels issued an urgent alert for the region, corroborating high kinetic activity or incoming threats in the Zaporizhzhia sector.
STRATEGIC STRIKE – UAF DEEP DRONE OPERATIONS (0232Z, Russian Source, LOW): Unconfirmed reports indicate a mass launch of Ukrainian long-range drones targeting Russian energy infrastructure, allegedly timed to exploit Starlink outages.
COMMUNICATIONS – STARLINK DISRUPTION (0232Z, Russian Source, MEDIUM): Reports indicate Starlink terminals were non-functional during recent UAF drone operations. This correlates with the previously noted X4.2 solar flare affecting satellite/HF communications.
Operational picture (by sector)
Zaporizhzhia Sector (Dnipro Line): The tactical situation has intensified along the river. The enemy is employing a "bait and strike" tactic, using loitering munitions to force Ukrainian Mobile Fire Groups to reveal their positions, followed by rapid-response MLRS (Grad) barrages. The focus area is the Belenkoye-Kanevskoye axis.
Strategic Rear (Russia): UAF continues to press long-range drone operations despite environmental challenges. The targeting remains focused on energy infrastructure, likely to exacerbate Russian logistical strain following the Kochetovka rail disruption.
Northern/Eastern Sectors: No significant changes from 0231Z report; KAB strikes in Donetsk remain the primary threat. Extreme cold (-27°C) continues to dictate operational tempo and equipment maintenance requirements.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Course of Action: In the Zaporizhzhia sector, the enemy has transitioned to utilizing loitering munitions (Gerans) as reconnaissance/spotting assets for conventional tube and rocket artillery. This suggests an adaptation to counter Ukrainian mobile air defense tactics.
Capabilities & Intent: The enemy is actively monitoring and likely exploiting the X4.2 solar flare's impact on Western technology (Starlink/GPS). The timing of their MLRS strikes suggests they are capitalizing on degraded Ukrainian C2 (Command and Control) and drone-interception coordination.
Information Operations: Russian mil-bloggers are emphasizing the vulnerability of Ukrainian MFGs and the failure of Western communication systems (Starlink) to project an image of technological superiority despite their own logistical hurdles.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Force Posture: UAF Mobile Fire Groups in the Zaporizhzhia sector are under direct threat. The transition from UAV harassment to MLRS saturation by the enemy necessitates immediate reassessment of MFG displacement protocols and camouflage.
Strategic Response: UAF maintains the initiative in deep-strike operations. The reported "mass launch" against energy targets indicates a refusal to allow the "City-Kill" strategy to go unanswered, even under degraded EW/Comms conditions.
C2 Status: Starlink disruptions (confirmed by Russian sources, highly probable due to solar activity) are likely forcing UAF units to rely on secondary, non-satellite-based communication nets, potentially slowing reaction times for air defense.
Information environment / disinformation
Russian Narrative: Actively linking UAF drone launches to "Starlink outages" to suggest Ukrainian desperation or a loss of technical control.
Ukrainian Narrative: Focus remains on civil defense and immediate warnings (OVA alerts) as the "City-Kill" winter campaign intensifies.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Continued exploitation of the Zaporizhzhia riverbank with "Geran-Artillery" pairings. Expect further UAF drone arrivals in Russian border and deep-rear regions as the mass launch reported at 0232Z reaches its targets.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A Russian combined arms breakthrough attempt in Zaporizhzhia under the cover of the current MLRS saturation, targeting the Belenkoye-Kanevskoye line while UAF communications remain degraded by solar flare activity.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Confirmation of UAF MFG casualty/equipment status in the Zaporizhzhia sector following the Grad barrage.
[HIGH] Technical verification of the scale of Starlink outages across the frontline vs. localized EW interference.
[MEDIUM] Identification of specific Russian energy targets struck by the 0232Z drone wave to assess impact on the "Zapad" grouping’s sustainment.
