AIR DEFENSE – KYIV UAV INCURSION RESOLVED (0206Z-0221Z, KMVA/Air Force, HIGH): A Russian loitering munition (BpLA) was detected passing Vyshgorod toward Kyiv. An "All Clear" was issued at 0221Z, indicating successful interception or transit out of the capital's immediate airspace.
KINETIC – KAB STRIKES IN DONETSK (0222Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): Russian tactical aviation has launched a new wave of guided aerial bombs (KAB) targeting positions in the Donetsk region.
KINETIC – DEEP STRIKE IN ROSTOV (0203Z, ASTRA, MEDIUM): Ukrainian drones targeted the Rostov region (Russia) overnight; local authorities report one casualty. This indicates sustained UAF reach into Russian logistical hubs despite winter conditions.
KINETIC – ALLEGED ARTILLERY STRIKE IN DNIPROPETROVSK (0209Z, TASS/MoD, LOW): Russian MoD claims Msta-B howitzers destroyed a UAF strongpoint in Dnipropetrovsk oblast. UNCONFIRMED; consistent with the expansion of strikes into the Dnipro corridor noted in the previous sitrep.
EQUIPMENT LOSS – ALLEGED CAESAR SPG DESTRUCTION (0206Z, Colonelcassad, LOW): Russian sources released footage claiming a "Geran" (Shahed) UAV destroyed a Ukrainian 155mm Caesar self-propelled gun (SPG) in the Northern operational zone. UNCONFIRMED; requires visual verification.
CAPABILITY UPGRADE – STORM SHADOW/SCALP (0205Z, RBK-Ukraine, MEDIUM): Reports indicate a planned lethality upgrade for Western-supplied long-range cruise missiles.
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Sector (Sumy/Kharkiv): Russian "Sever" (North) grouping is actively using loitering munitions (Geran/Shahed) to target high-value Ukrainian artillery (e.g., Caesar SPG). Extreme cold (-27°C) and the solar flare (X4.2) continue to degrade GPS-reliant systems and communications.
Eastern Sector (Donetsk): High-intensity KAB strikes are the primary Russian effort. This sector remains the most kinetically active as the enemy attempts to disrupt UAF defensive lines ahead of any potential ground assaults.
Dnipro Corridor (Dnipropetrovsk): Shift in Russian tactics to include conventional tube artillery (Msta-B) against near-rear strongpoints. This suggests a narrowing of the gap between the frontline and previously "safe" logistical zones.
Kyiv/Central Sector: UAV activity remains a persistent harassment tool, though air defenses currently maintain a high interception rate (0221Z clear).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Course of Action: The enemy is utilizing a multi-layered suppression strategy: loitering munitions to fix air defenses in the North/Kyiv, while tactical aviation (KABs) and heavy artillery (Msta-B) degrade the Eastern defensive crust.
Adaptation: The reported use of "Geran" BpLAs against mobile artillery (Caesar) indicates an shift toward utilizing loitering munitions for counter-battery tasks, likely to preserve their own high-end precision assets.
Capabilities: Russian MoD is highlighting the role of "Zapad" and "Tsentr" groupings in maintaining pressure on the Dnipro/Donetsk axis. Logistics remain a vulnerability following the Kochetovka rail fire, which may explain the reliance on air-delivered munitions (KABs) over sustained ground offensives.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Counter-Offensive Capability: UAF continues to demonstrate reach with drone strikes into Rostov, likely targeting fuel or rail infrastructure to exacerbate the Russian logistics strain identified in the 24h context.
Force Posture: UAF Air Defense remains highly reactive in the Kyiv region. Artillery units in the Northern sector are under increased threat from Russian loitering munitions and are likely operating under strict EMCON (Emission Control) or camouflage protocols due to the solar flare's impact on electronic warfare effectiveness.
Information environment / disinformation
Russian Narrative: Emphasizing the destruction of Western-supplied "Prestige" equipment (Caesar SPG) to demoralize domestic support for Ukraine. Domestic Russian reporting on the Rostov strike is being used to highlight "Ukrainian aggression" against civilians (0203Z).
Ukrainian Narrative: Shifting focus toward future lethality and "deep reach" (Storm Shadow upgrades) to maintain morale during the "City-Kill" winter campaign.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Continued KAB strikes across the Donetsk front, paired with sporadic UAV "probes" of the Kyiv air defense bubble to identify gaps caused by solar flare interference.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A coordinated "Dark Sky" attack. Using the X4.2 solar flare's peak degradation of GPS/HF, Russia may launch a massed cruise missile strike against the Dnipropetrovsk/Pavlohrad logistics hub, banking on reduced UAF radar/interceptor coordination.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Visual confirmation of the alleged Caesar SPG destruction in the Northern sector to assess BDL (Battle Damage Loss).
[HIGH] Precise identification of the target in the Rostov drone strike; verify if it correlates with rail/fuel infrastructure feeding the "Zapad" grouping.
[MEDIUM] Monitor Russian "Rubicon" fiber-optic drone deployment rates, as these are immune to current solar-flare-exacerbated EW vulnerabilities.
