KINETIC – KAB LAUNCHES TOWARD DNIPROPETROVSK/DONETSK (0134Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): Russian tactical aviation has expanded the scope of guided aerial bomb (KAB) strikes, now targeting the Dnipropetrovsk region in addition to Donetsk front-line positions.
INFO-OP – REPORTED EVACUATION OF ZAPORIZHZHIA (0138Z, TASS, LOW): Russian state media claims Ukrainian authorities are evacuating civilians and industry from Zaporizhzhia due to Russian advances. UNCONFIRMED; likely a psychological operation (PSYOP) to induce panic.
INFO-OP – ABSURDIST DISINFORMATION/DISTRACTION (0157Z, TASS, LOW): Russian media is circulating absurdist claims regarding US political figures and "invented" weaponry. This likely serves as information saturation to distract from ongoing kinetic operations.
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Sector (Sumy): Remains under pressure from loitering UAVs (per 0124Z update) and previous KAB strikes. The sector is currently a primary focus for degrading UAF border defenses.
Eastern Sector (Donetsk/Dnipropetrovsk): (NEW) The KAB footprint has expanded westward. Strikes reported at 0134Z targeting Dnipropetrovsk indicate an attempt to strike logistical depth and "near-rear" staging areas supporting the Donetsk front.
Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia): Currently the focus of a Russian information offensive. While TASS claims Russian "advances" (0138Z), there is no tactical corroboration from Ukrainian or independent sources. This sector remains a high-risk area for potential Russian opportunistic "probing" attacks.
Environmental Factors: Extreme cold (-27°C) continues to strain the energy grid. The expansion of KAB strikes toward Dnipropetrovsk suggests the "City-Kill" strategy is targeting the critical Pavlohrad-Dnipro logistical and energy corridor.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Course of Action: The enemy is maintaining its "pulsing" attack pattern but has shifted the weight of tactical aviation toward the Dnipropetrovsk-Donetsk axis. The use of KABs on Dnipropetrovsk suggests a move to suppress Ukrainian reserves and regional logistics hubs.
Information Warfare Adaptation: The simultaneous release of localized panic-inducing reports (Zaporizhzhia evacuation) and absurdist international news (0157Z) indicates a coordinated attempt to overwhelm the Ukrainian information environment during a period of high kinetic stress.
Capabilities: Russian tactical aviation remains the primary effector in the current phase, bridging the gap between the UAV loitering phase and the anticipated strategic missile launch.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Defensive Posture: UAF Air Defense is prioritizing high-value targets in the Dnipro/Donetsk corridor. Mobile fire groups are active against the UAV loitering threat in the north.
Counter-Information: There is an urgent need for official clarification regarding the status of Zaporizhzhia to neutralize the TASS-driven narrative of a "city collapse."
Information environment / disinformation
Primary Narrative: Russia is attempting to project an image of Ukrainian collapse in the south (Zaporizhzhia) while simultaneously polluting the media space with non-sequitur content (Trump "discombobulator" claims).
Goal: To create a sense of chaos and inevitability of Russian victory, likely timed to coincide with the ongoing diplomatic talks in Abu Dhabi and the physical pressure of the "City-Kill" winter campaign.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Continued KAB strikes across the Dnipropetrovsk/Donetsk line to fix UAF forces, while the UAV swarm from Belgorod attempts to penetrate the Kharkiv/Poltava energy nodes before sunrise.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A massed missile strike (Kalibr/Kh-101) launched under the cover of the current information noise and solar flare interference (noted in previous reports), specifically targeting the Zaporizhzhia and Dnipro power distribution hubs to achieve a regional blackout.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Verification of ground activity in the Zaporizhzhia sector to confirm/refute TASS claims of Russian advances.
[HIGH] Damage assessment of KAB strikes in the Dnipropetrovsk region, specifically regarding rail and energy infrastructure.
[MEDIUM] Monitoring for takeoff signals of Tu-95MS/Tu-22M3 from northern airbases, as tactical aviation activity remains high.
