AERIAL – NEW UAV VECTOR FROM BELGOROD (0124Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): A new group of strike UAVs has crossed from Belgorod (RU) and is currently loitering along the Kharkiv-Sumy border.
KINETIC – KAB STRIKES ON SUMY & DONETSK (0109Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): Tactical aviation has released Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs) targeting front-line and near-rear positions in both the Sumy and Donetsk sectors.
AERIAL – BALLISTIC THREAT TERMINATED (0107Z-0122Z, UAF Air Force/RBK-UA, HIGH): A ballistic threat from the south-east was detected and subsequently cleared after 15 minutes. No impacts have been confirmed from this specific event.
COUNTER-OPERATIONS – REPORTED STRIKE ON ROSTOV REGION (0123Z, Operation Z, LOW): Pro-Russian sources report a "massive" aerial attack on the Rostov region (RU). UNCONFIRMED and likely representing Ukrainian long-range UAV or missile counter-battery activity.
Operational picture (by sector)
Kyiv Metropolitan Area: Persistence of loitering UAVs continues from the previous hour. No new kinetic impacts reported since 0037Z, but the threat remains active as AD assets continue to engage.
Northern Sector (Sumy): (NEW) Targeted by KABs. The combination of KAB strikes (0109Z) and incoming UAVs from Belgorod (0124Z) suggests a localized effort to degrade defensive lines and C2 nodes in this sector.
Eastern Sector (Kharkiv/Donetsk): (NEW) KAB strikes confirmed in Donetsk. The Kharkiv/Sumy border is now a primary transit corridor for the latest UAV wave, likely aiming for the regional power grid or logistical hubs like Pavlohrad.
Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia): Air alerts have been cleared (0131Z), suggesting the ballistic threat from the south-east (0107Z) did not manifest in terminal strikes in this specific AO.
Environmental Factors: Temperatures remain at extreme lows (-27°C). The "City-Kill" strategy persists, with the enemy attempting to sustain pressure on energy infrastructure during the coldest window of the night.
Enemy analysis (Threat assessment)
Tactical Course of Action: The enemy is utilizing a "pulsing" attack pattern. By alternating between loitering UAVs (Kyiv), short-duration ballistic threats (South-East), and tactical KAB releases (Sumy/Donetsk), the enemy is forcing the UAF to maintain high-alert states across all sectors simultaneously.
Capabilities: Continued use of multi-domain assets. The deployment of KABs indicates that Russian tactical aviation is operating with relative impunity near the border, likely supported by the SEAD (Suppression of Enemy Air Defense) effects of the larger UAV swarms.
Sustainment: The "silence" at GRAU arsenals (from daily report context) suggests that while tactical strikes (KABs/UAVs) are ongoing, the strategic missile force (Kh-101/Iskander) is likely in final launch readiness.
Friendly forces (Blue force tracking)
Air Defense Posture: UAF AD and Mobile Fire Groups have successfully managed a complex multi-vector environment. The "All Clear" for ballistic threats (0122Z) indicates effective monitoring and likely successful interception or deterrence of South-Eastern launch platforms.
Readiness: Front-line units in Sumy and Donetsk are under increased pressure from KAB strikes, requiring immediate assessment of defensive fortification integrity.
Information environment (Cognitive domain)
Diversionary Narratives: Russian state media (TASS) is attempting to saturate the information space with non-military filler (medical news, celebrity deaths) to dilute reporting on the ongoing kinetic escalation.
Attribution Shaping: Pro-Russian mil-bloggers (Operation Z) are emphasizing attacks on Rostov to frame Russia as the victim of "massive" aggression, potentially to justify the "City-Kill" escalation to domestic audiences.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): The new group of UAVs from Belgorod (0124Z) will likely attempt to penetrate the Kharkiv or Poltava grids before 0400Z. Tactical aviation will continue KAB releases to fix UAF forces on the border.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A massed, synchronized missile strike from the Tu-22M3 bombers (previously spotted over Bryansk) and Black Sea Kalibr platforms, timed to coincide with the pre-dawn temperature minimum (0400Z-0600Z). The goal remains a "total blackout" of the Kyiv-Kharkiv-Dnipro triangle.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[HIGH] Damage assessment of KAB strikes in Sumy and Donetsk to determine if specific C2 or energy infrastructure was neutralized.
[HIGH] Corroboration of the Rostov strikes (0123Z) to determine the scale of the counter-strike and its impact on Russian logistical nodes.
[MEDIUM] Monitoring of Tu-22M3 and Tu-95 flight paths; any takeoff from Olenya or Engels airbases would signal the transition from the "UAV/KAB phase" to the "Strategic Missile phase."
