DIPLOMATIC ENGAGEMENT – US-CHINA (1340Z, TASS, HIGH): Chinese President Xi Jinping conducted a telephone conversation with Donald Trump. This follows statements by Russian official Ushakov regarding Russia and China acting "back-to-back" (1343Z, Alex Parker Returns).
AERIAL OPERATIONS – KAB LAUNCHES (1351Z/1357Z, UA Air Force, HIGH): Russian tactical aviation has expanded Guided Aerial Bomb (KAB) strikes to the Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk regions.
SPACE WEATHER – EXTENDED WINDOW (1354Z, TASS, HIGH): New forecasts from IKI RAN indicate that while current flares are peaking, the first magnetic field disturbances reaching Earth are expected tomorrow, Feb 5. This extends the projected window for satellite and GPS degradation.
TACTICAL SUCCESS – POKROVSK SECTOR (1401Z, Sternenko, MEDIUM): Ukrainian forces have documented a successful operation against Russian positions in the Pokrovsk direction. [UNCONFIRMED by General Staff].
INTERNAL SECURITY – UA CORRUPTION (1400Z, UA Prosecutor General, HIGH): A former official has been charged with a 5.2 million UAH overpayment for electricity in military units in the Vinnytsia region.
MARITIME TENSION – ESTONIA (1338Z, Alex Parker Returns/RU MFA, MEDIUM): The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has threatened "proportionate measures" against Estonia regarding risks to Russian-flagged vessels.
Operational picture (by sector)
Donetsk Sector (Pokrovsk/Kurakhove): Heavy activity continues. While RU forces previously claimed Stepanovka, UA sources (1401Z, Sternenko) report successful defensive or counter-tactical strikes in the Pokrovsk direction. However, the UA Air Force (1357Z) warns of incoming KAB strikes, indicating RU is maintaining high-intensity fire support to suppress UA tactical gains.
Dnipropetrovsk Sector: This region is now under active KAB threat (1351Z). This suggests RU aviation is pushing the depth of their glide bomb reaches, potentially targeting rear-area logistics or assembly points supporting the Donetsk front.
Kharkiv Sector: Russian sources (1350Z, Dva Mayora) have released combat footage of strikes in this direction. This corroborates the "City-Kill" strategy and the drainage of heating pipes previously reported as UA attempts to mitigate infrastructure collapse.
Southern Axis / Zaporizhzhia: No new territorial changes confirmed since the RU claim on Staroukrainka; however, RU state media (1400Z) continues to signal high-tempo operations across all active fronts.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Adaptation: RU forces continue to utilize KAB launches as their primary tool for breaking static UA defenses. The expansion of these strikes to Dnipropetrovsk indicates a broadening of the strike zone.
Electronic/Space Context: RU is likely aware of the IKI RAN forecast regarding Feb 5 magnetic disturbances. They are currently in a "pre-storm" phase, utilizing standard GPS-guided munitions while preparing for a potential shift to non-GPS reliant or EW-heavy tactics if solar interference worsens tomorrow.
Sustainment & Recruitment: RU continues aggressive contract recruitment, integrated into civilian infrastructure like weather apps (1334Z). Simultaneously, reports of "accelerated impoverishment" in regions like Bashkortostan (1400Z, Sever.Realii) suggest economic pressure is being used as a silent mobilization driver.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Operational Attrition: The 225th Assault Battalion reports a 69% year-on-year increase in RU liquidations for January (1335Z), suggesting that despite territorial losses, UA "kill ratios" remain high in high-intensity sectors.
Rear Area Integrity: The General Staff and Prosecutor’s office are actively purging corruption (1400Z). This is critical for maintaining the efficiency of the "Energy Truce" recovery efforts and ensuring military funds reach the front.
Air Defense: UA AD remains the primary line of effort against KAB launches, though detection remains complicated by solar-induced clutter.
Information environment / disinformation
Zelensky Discreditation: RU state media is amplifying alleged Epstein-related leaks to mock and degrade the international standing of President Zelensky (1349Z, TASS). This is a clear "active measure" intended to fragment Western support.
Energy Scare Tactics: RU-aligned channels are pushing a "Gas Alarm" narrative in Europe (1344Z, Operation Z), claiming stocks are at 2022 lows. This aims to pressure European populations as the deep freeze continues.
Strategic Distraction: Minor domestic RU news (Valentine’s Day spending, 1336Z; banning profanity in government, 1349Z) is being used to normalize the domestic situation amidst high casualty reports.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): Continued saturation of the Pokrovsk and Dnipropetrovsk axes with KABs. RU will likely attempt to capitalize on the "calm before the storm" regarding space weather before the Feb 5 magnetic disturbances hit.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): A multi-axis missile and KAB surge tonight, timed to the exact start of the magnetic disturbances to maximize the window where UA's Western-provided radar and GPS-guided AD systems are most vulnerable.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Assessment of the impact of the 5.2m UAH corruption case on current energy supplies to units in the Vinnytsia/Central region.
[HIGH] Confirmation of the specific nature of the UA success in Pokrovsk (1401Z)—was this a localized counter-attack or a successful drone/artillery strike on a concentration area?
[MEDIUM] Monitoring of RU-Estonia maritime rhetoric to determine if RU is planning a "gray zone" naval blockade or provocation in the Baltic.
