SPACE WEATHER – CRITICAL ADVISORY (1304Z/1329Z, TASS, HIGH): A major X4.2 solar flare has occurred. This follows earlier X-class activity and will likely cause significant degradation of GPS-guided munitions, satellite communications, and HF radio for the next 6-12 hours.
TERRITORIAL CLAIM – STEPANOVKA (1315Z, Voenkor Kotenok/RU MoD, MEDIUM): Russian MoD has officially claimed the capture of Stepanovka (Donetsk Sector). This follows previous reports of RU consolidation in the area. [UNCONFIRMED by UA sources].
TERRITORIAL CLAIM – STAROUKRAINKA (1313Z, Voenkor Kotenok/RU MoD, MEDIUM): Russian MoD has formally claimed the "liberation" of Staroukrainka (Zaporizhzhia Sector). This elevates previous tactical claims to official RU state status. [UNCONFIRMED by UA sources].
MASS CASUALTY STRIKE – DRUZHKIVKA (1316Z, RBC-Ukraine, HIGH): A Russian strike on Druzhkivka has resulted in at least 7 KIA and 15 WIA. Visual evidence confirms severe destruction of civilian infrastructure.
KAB STRIKE OPERATIONS (1308Z, UA Air Force, HIGH): Russian tactical aviation has initiated new launches of Guided Aerial Bombs (KAB) targeting the Kharkiv region, likely exploiting solar-induced radar/AD interference.
OFFENSIVE MANEUVER – SLAVYANSK AXIS (1321Z, Rybar, LOW): RU "South" grouping is reportedly advancing near Zakotne. This indicates an attempt to pressure the northern flank of the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration.
WEATHER SHIFT (1308Z, RBC-Ukraine, MEDIUM): Forecasts indicate a "warming with nuances" starting tomorrow. This suggests a transition from the "deep freeze" (-27°C) to a potential thaw, which will significantly impact cross-country mobility (Rasputitsa).
Operational picture (by sector)
Donetsk Sector: The situation is deteriorating around the Kurakhove-Pokrovsk axis with the claimed RU seizure of Stepanovka (1315Z). The strike on Druzhkivka (1316Z) indicates sustained RU long-range fire deep into the rear of the Donetsk grouping. Tactical reporting from UA-aligned OSINT (1323Z, CyberBoroshno) suggests UA forces are "holding ground" but facing extreme pressure.
Zaporizhzhia Sector: RU MoD official claim on Staroukrainka (1313Z) suggests the 127th Motorized Rifle Division is attempting to exploit the breach south of the city. Use of armor in this sector remains supported by the current frozen ground, though the window for such maneuvers may close with the predicted warming (1308Z).
Kharkiv/Sumy Sector: RU aviation is prioritizing KAB strikes on Kharkiv (1308Z). In the Sumy direction, RU forces are conducting strikes near Krasnoyarske (1331Z, Dva Mayora), likely part of a "fixing" operation to prevent UA reserves from shifting south.
Slavyansk Direction: RU forces (Group "South") are reportedly active near Zakotne (1321Z). This sector has been relatively stable; renewed activity here suggests a broadening of the RU winter offensive.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Space Weather Exploitation: RU forces are timing KAB launches and likely electronic warfare (EW) surges to coincide with the X4.2 solar flare (1329Z). This flare degrades the effectiveness of UA's Western-provided precision systems (HIMARS, Excalibur) and drone C2 links.
Infrastructure Targeting: The strike on Druzhkivka (1316Z) follows the "City-Kill" pattern, focusing on mid-tier logistical hubs and population centers to degrade UA morale and sustainment.
Sustainment: While RU oil/gas revenues have declined (1327Z), there is no immediate indication this has restricted front-line munitions expenditures. RU MoD continues to project high-tempo operations across four distinct axes.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Defensive Posture: UA units are reportedly "standing still" (1323Z, CyberBoroshno) in several sectors, prioritizing the holding of current lines over counter-attacks during the peak of the RU offensive.
Information Operations: UA sources are highlighting the personal narratives of elite units (e.g., 78th DShV, 1319Z) to maintain domestic morale during a period of territorial losses and high-intensity strikes.
Air Defense: UA Air Force remains highly active in providing early warning for KAB and missile launches (1308Z), despite the increased difficulty of detection due to solar interference.
Information environment / disinformation
Strategic Distraction: RU-aligned channels are aggressively circulating Western-centric conspiracy content (Epstein/Hawking, 1316Z/1323Z) to fragment the international information space and distract from the Druzhkivka mass casualty event.
Internal RU Control: Reports of teachers being punished in Karelia for requesting pay raises (1331Z) and Roscosmos launching new recruitment drives (1312Z) suggest the Kremlin is balancing the maintenance of internal stability with the need for long-term mobilization of human capital.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA: Continued RU glide-bomb (KAB) saturation of the Kharkiv and Donetsk sectors. RU infantry will likely attempt to consolidate the claimed positions in Stepanovka and Staroukrainka before the ground begins to soften.
MDCOA: A coordinated RU armored breakthrough in the Zaporizhzhia sector while UA's GPS-reliant counter-battery and drone systems are degraded by the X4.2 solar flare.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Verification of UA presence/withdrawal from Stepanovka and Staroukrainka. RU official claims must be cross-referenced with geo-located video.
[HIGH] Assessment of the impact of the X4.2 flare on UA drone operations (FPV/Baba Yaga) and Starlink connectivity in the Pokrovsk-Kurakhove sector.
[MEDIUM] Identification of the RU units involved in the Zakotne (Slavyansk) advance to determine if new reserves have been committed.
