TERRITORIAL LOSS – ZAPORIZHZHIA SECTOR (1152Z, TASS/RU MoD, HIGH): Russian forces have reportedly captured the settlement of Staroukrainka. This follows the earlier fall of Pridorozhne and indicates a significant degradation of the UA defensive line on the Zaporizhzhia-Donetsk border.
TERRITORIAL LOSS – DONETSK SECTOR (1152Z/1154Z, TASS/RU MoD, HIGH): RU MoD confirms the capture of Sukhetskoye (by 55th Marine Division) and Stepanovka.
ENERGY GRID CRITICAL FAILURE (1142Z, TASS, MEDIUM): The Chairman of the UA Association of Renewable Energy reports that "key nodes of the main energy system" have failed, complicating the already dire heating crisis.
OIL INFRASTRUCTURE STRIKE (1142Z, Colonelcassad, HIGH): A Russian strike has caused a significant fire at an oil depot in the Dnipropetrovsk region.
MULTI-AXIS UAV ATTACK (1142Z-1153Z, UA Air Force, HIGH): Active Shahed-type UAV incursions are currently tracking toward Kyiv (from Chernihiv), Odesa (from the Black Sea), Dnipropetrovsk, and Zaporizhzhia.
DIPLOMATIC ESCALATION (1159Z, UA MFA, HIGH): Multiple foreign leaders are confirmed to visit Ukraine on February 24, providing a clear target window for Russian "negotiation by fire."
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
The operational environment remains defined by the extreme "Deep Freeze" (-27°C). The Russian "City-Kill" campaign has progressed from targeting local distribution to successfully disabling "key nodes" of the national backbone.
Battlefield Geometry: The southern front is shifting rapidly. The capture of Staroukrainka creates a dangerous salient that threatens to outflank UA positions guarding the primary highway to Zaporizhzhia city.
Environmental Factors: Sub-zero temperatures are now a lethal force multiplier. The failure of key energy nodes suggests that UA's ability to maintain even "keep-warm" circulation in the grid is at its most vulnerable point since 2022.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (IPB Step 2)
Tactical Successes:
Vostok Group: Exploited the capture of Pridorozhne to rapidly seize Staroukrainka (1152Z). This suggests UA forces in this sub-sector may be experiencing localized command-and-control (C2) or logistical breakdown due to the weather.
Tsentr Group: Successfully seized Sukhetskoye and Stepanovka in the DPR (1154Z), maintaining high-tempo pressure on the Pokrovsk-Kurakhove axis despite the cold.
Aviation & Long-Range Strikes:
RU is maintaining a high sortie rate of UAVs and tactical aviation (strikes reported in Sumy, 1143Z). The focus remains on fuel (Dnipropetrovsk oil depot) and energy infrastructure.
Internal Stability Issues:
A fatal shootout in Moscow involving pardoned convicts (ASTRA, 1136Z) and reports of conscripts being forced into contracts (1155Z) indicate ongoing friction within the Russian mobilization model, though this has not yet impacted frontline performance.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (IPB Step 3)
Operational Posture:
Zaporizhzhia Defense: While the front is bending, municipal authorities have successfully restored water supply to Zaporizhzhia city (1137Z), showing resilience in civil-military cooperation.
Air Defense (AD): UA forces are currently engaged in a 360-degree AD operation. Mobile fire groups and AD units are tracking targets from the north (Kyiv), south (Odesa/Zaporizhzhia), and east (Dnipro).
Resource Constraints:
Public appeals for "rusoriz" (FPV/drone components) by major volunteers (Sternenko, 1201Z) suggest a critical shortage of tactical attrition assets at the exact moment RU is intensifying ground assaults.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (IPB Step 4)
Russian Disinformation:
Targeted Delegitimization: RU state media (Zakharova) is leveraging the "Epstein files" to link Western elites to the "Kyiv regime" (1134Z).
Social Destabilization: Pro-RU channels are circulating fakes regarding UA lowering the marriage age to 14 to "lower moral standards" (1155Z).
Morale Operations: RU is using domestic "Heat for a Hero" campaigns (1202Z) to maintain public support for the winter offensive, contrasting the "frozen" Ukrainian civilian population with the "supported" Russian soldier.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (IPB Step 5)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RU will attempt to collapse the Staroukrainka-Zaporizhzhia axis over the next 48 hours to present a "fait accompli" before the Abu Dhabi talks. Expect a massive UAV/missile wave tonight to exploit the "key node" failures and permanently disable the grid in at least one major oblast.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A breakthrough from Staroukrainka toward the main Zaporizhzhia highway, leading to the encirclement of UA forward units who are currently immobilized by the lack of heated maintenance facilities for armored vehicles.
Decision Points: UA command must decide whether to commit reserve AD assets to protect the remaining 750kV nodes or prioritize protecting the government quarter ahead of the Feb 24 VIP visits.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
High probability of successful RU penetration in the Zaporizhzhia sector. Energy instability will likely lead to rolling blackouts and localized heating failures in Dnipro and Zaporizhzhia following the latest strikes. Air raid sirens will remain active across the northern and southern corridors.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Confirm the current UA defensive line west of Staroukrainka; identify if the retreat was orderly or a rout.
[HIGH] Assess the damage to the "key nodes" mentioned by the Renewable Energy Association; specifically, are these transformers or generation halls?
[MEDIUM] Monitor the status of the "Baltic Spirit" in Estonia to determine if the "contraband" is related to RU dual-use technology or sanctions evasion (1151Z).
[LOW] Track the impact of the Moscow shootout on RU domestic sentiment regarding the "convict-soldier" program.
