KYIV HEATING CRISIS ESCALATION (1127Z, RBK-UA, HIGH): President Zelensky confirms over 1,100 buildings in the Kyiv metropolitan area remain without heating amid -27°C temperatures following strikes on energy infrastructure.
SECTOR EXPANSION – ZAPORIZHZHIA/DONETSK BORDER (1131Z, TASS/RU MoD, MEDIUM): Russian MoD claims the capture of Pridorozhne has allowed their forces to secure a 3 sq km defensive area.
SUCCESSFUL ATTRITION – KHARKIV SECTOR (1127Z, Butusov Plus, HIGH): Elements of the UA 77th Airmobile Brigade utilized FPV drones to neutralize approximately 30 Russian personnel near Kruhlyakivka.
RENEWED UAV THREAT – CHERNIHIV (1114Z, UA Air Force, HIGH): Hostile UAVs (Shahed-type) detected over northern Chernihiv, tracking southwest toward the Kyiv/Central hub.
STRATEGIC DIPLOMACY (1104Z, RBK-UA, HIGH): Putin and Xi Jinping held a video call to discuss the ongoing Abu Dhabi negotiations, signaling high-level coordination between Moscow and Beijing.
ORBITAL TENSIONS (1131Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): Reports indicate increasing concern among European military commands regarding the maneuver and SIGINT capabilities of recently deployed Russian satellite clusters.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)
The operational environment is dominated by extreme sub-zero temperatures (-27°C to -29°C), which have turned infrastructure damage into a primary factor for civil and military stability. The "City-Kill" strategy remains the enemy's Main Effort (ME), specifically targeting the high-voltage backbone of Kyiv and the heating distribution networks in major urban centers. In the southern sector, the fall of Pridorozhne (confirmed by RU MoD) suggests a widening of the Russian salient toward the Zaporizhzhia-Donetsk administrative borders.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (IPB Step 2)
Tactical Gains & Disposition:
Vostok Group: Having secured Pridorozhne, RU forces are consolidating a 3 sq km area (1131Z). This facilitates better fire control over local supply lines and sets the stage for a push toward the primary highway leading to Zaporizhzhia.
Aviation:Mi-28 attack helicopters remain active in support of ground assaults (1126Z), likely utilizing low-altitude profiles to evade long-range AD.
Capabilities & Adaptations:
Drone Saturation: RU continues to launch Shahed-type UAVs at ultra-low altitudes to bypass radar, as evidenced by the engagement in the northern sector (1118Z).
Information Operations: The Kremlin is intensifying domestic propaganda (e.g., the RT "Propaganda Train" in Moscow, 1106Z) to mask internal friction, such as the housing protests from Mariupol residents (1106Z).
Logistics & Sustainment:
Despite the freezing conditions, RU forces are maintaining high-intensity storm group operations, though they are suffering significant localized losses to UA drone technology (e.g., Kruhlyakivka, 1127Z).
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (IPB Step 3)
Operational Posture:
UA Air Defense (AD): Mobile fire groups remain the most effective counter to low-altitude UAVs. A Shahed was successfully intercepted at "ultra-low altitude" (1118Z), demonstrating high readiness of point-defense assets.
Counter-Infiltration: UA State Border Guard Service (DPSU) continues active operations, including the capture of RU personnel (1122Z).
Tactical Successes:
The 77th Airmobile Brigade is effectively utilizing FPV drones to disrupt RU assault groups in the Kruhlyakivka (Kharkiv) area, preventing further RU consolidation in that sector (1127Z).
Infrastructure Management:
Zaporizhzhia OVA has restored traffic flow (1122Z) and is aggressively promoting "Points of Invincibility" to mitigate the energy collapse.
Kyiv: Critical focus on emergency heating repairs for the 1,100 affected buildings. The situation remains precarious as the grid lacks redundancy.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (IPB Step 4)
Narrative Control:
Russia: Attempting to frame the Ladyzhynska TPP destruction (old footage from March 2024 being recirculated) as a new victory (1115Z) to amplify the "Energy Truce is dead" narrative.
China-Russia Alignment: The Putin-Xi call (1104Z) is being used to project a unified front to the Abu Dhabi negotiators.
Internal Friction: ASTRA reports (1106Z) show Mariupol residents are publicly appealing to Putin for housing, highlighting the failure of the RU occupation administration to provide basic services in "liberated" territories.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (IPB Step 5)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RU will continue "negotiation by fire," launching nightly UAV and missile waves to prevent UA from stabilizing the heating grid in Kyiv and Kharkiv. In the south, RU will attempt to exploit the capture of Pridorozhne to pressure the UA flanks toward Staroukrainka.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A coordinated strike on the surviving 750 kV nodes combined with a solar-flare-induced electronic blackout, leading to a permanent "freeze-out" of a major UA city (Kyiv or Dnipro).
Timeline: Critical 12-hour window. Nighttime temperatures will peak the load on the fragile energy grid.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
The humanitarian situation in Kyiv will remain the primary operational concern. Expect continued Shahed activity from the northern (Chernihiv) and eastern axes. Tactical combat will remain concentrated in the Kruhlyakivka (Kharkiv) and Pridorozhne (Zaporizhzhia) sectors.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Verify the specific repair timeline for the 1,100 buildings in Kyiv; identify if the failure is due to primary generation or local distribution.
[HIGH] Determine the actual status of Staroukrainka following the RU advance in Pridorozhne.
[MEDIUM] Monitor for confirmation of any new Kh-32 launches or movements of Tu-22M3 carriers.
[LOW] Track the "white list" of RU apps (SDEK, etc.) to see if they are being leveraged for military logistics/SIGINT within occupied territories.
