CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE – MASS BLACKOUTS (0825Z, Ukrenergo, HIGH): Emergency power shutdowns are in effect across Sumy, Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia following targeted strikes on energy infrastructure. Kyiv's Left Bank has returned to scheduled outages.
TACTICAL GAIN – STAROUKRAINKA (0815Z, Voin DV, LOW): Pro-Russian sources claim the "Vostok" Group has seized the settlement of Staroukrainka (Huliaipole direction). UNCONFIRMED by Ukrainian General Staff.
MULTI-DOMAIN – SATELLITE INTERFERENCE (0805Z, FT/Tsapliyenko, MEDIUM): Reports indicate Russian capabilities are being used to intercept or manipulate the trajectories of European satellites, potentially threatening Western space-based C2 and ISR.
OFFENSIVE VECTOR – KUPYANSK/OSKIL (0831Z, Voenkor Kotenok, MEDIUM): RU "Zapad" Group has intensified operations on the left bank of the Oskil River, attempting to consolidate the Zaoskolsky sector south and west of Kupyansk.
HYBRID OPS – POLISH RAILWAY SABOTAGE (0810Z, Dva Mayora, LOW): Russian-linked channels are amplifying reports of railway disruptions in Poland, framing them as a result of cold weather and internal mismanagement to degrade regional logistics narratives.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment is characterized by a high-intensity Russian "fire complex" combining strategic aviation, ballistic missiles, and tactical aviation (KABs). The extreme cold (-27°C) remains the primary force multiplier for Russian strikes against the energy grid. Battlefield geometry is stable but under extreme pressure in the Pokrovsk and Huliaipole sectors.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat assessment)
Air Domain: Russia is utilizing a multi-tiered strike package. Tu-22M3s (Kh-22) are being used for high-velocity impacts on urban centers, while Su-34s are saturating the Zaporizhzhia frontline with Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs) (0817Z).
Ground Offensive: The RU "Vostok" Group is prioritizing the Huliaipole-Velyka Novosilka axis, evidenced by the claimed capture of Staroukrainka. This suggests an attempt to widen the Southern Front and draw UA reserves away from Pokrovsk.
Tactical Adaptation: RU forces in the Kupyansk sector are attempting to leverage the Oskil River's eastern bank to create a permanent bridgehead, likely aiming to threaten Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi.
C2/Space: Russian attempts to manipulate European satellites (if verified) represent a significant escalation in hybrid warfare intended to blind NATO/EU intelligence support for Ukraine.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue force tracking)
Defensive Operations: The General Staff reports repelling two assaults in the Kursk and North Slobozhansky (Sumy) directions (0810Z). Intensive defensive clashes continue at over 11 locations in the Pokrovsk sector, including Myrnohrad and Rodynske.
Sustainability Measures: UA has launched "Enerhokredit" to support businesses during the blackout crisis and "Veteran PRO" to streamline services for demobilized personnel, focusing on internal stability during the winter "City-Kill" phase.
Air Defense: Active engagement of reconnaissance UAVs in Odesa and Chernihiv (0811Z-0830Z) indicates a persistent RU effort to map secondary targets for subsequent missile waves.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive domain)
Disinformation/Subversion: Russian channels (Alex Parker, 0807Z) are aggressively pushing a narrative linking Western elites (Epstein case) to the Kremlin to sow distrust in Poland and the US.
Psychological Operations: RU media is weaponizing the "abandonment" of wounded RU soldiers (0818Z) in UA-produced content to counter-message, while simultaneously claiming UA strikes on civilians in Nova Kakhovka (12 casualties claimed, 0815Z).
Economic Framing: RU MoD is proposing mortgage interest waivers for contract soldiers (0824Z), likely a response to recruitment friction and high attrition rates in "storm" units.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future operations)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Russia will continue the "City-Kill" campaign, specifically targeting electrical substations in the Dnipro-Zaporizhzhia corridor to force a total grid collapse in the east before the Abu Dhabi talks.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A successful Russian manipulation of satellite data coinciding with a mass missile strike, leading to the failure of UA early warning systems and high-casualty impacts on C2 nodes.
Decision Points: Confirmation of the Staroukrainka loss would require UA to commit tactical reserves to the Huliaipole axis to prevent a breakthrough toward the T0504 highway.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Expect continued UAV reconnaissance over Odesa and Northern Ukraine. High probability of another "fast target" (ballistic/supersonic) wave against Zaporizhzhia and Dnipro as RU maintains pressure on the damaged energy infrastructure.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Independent verification of the control status of Staroukrainka (Zaporizhzhia Oblast).
[HIGH] Technical assessment of "European satellite manipulation" claims; identify if this involves GPS spoofing or kinetic orbital interference.
[MEDIUM] BDA (Battle Damage Assessment) of the energy infrastructure in the Sumy and Donetsk regions to determine the duration of "emergency" versus "scheduled" outages.
