CROSS-BORDER STRIKE – BRYANSK (0736Z, Dnevnik Desantnika, HIGH): Ukraine launched a coordinated mass strike on Bryansk Oblast utilizing HIMARS, UAVs, and notably, R-360 Neptune missiles in a land-attack role.
TACTICAL SHIFT – DOBROPILLYA SALIENT (0740Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): Pro-Russian sources report territorial gains and new offensive vectors west and north of the Pokrovsk axis, specifically targeting the areas of Toretsk and Bilitske.
STRATEGIC PROCUREMENT – RU 2026 GOALS (0741Z, Dnevnik Desantnika, MEDIUM): Russian MoD announced a target of 310,000 units of military equipment/materiel for 2026, signaling a long-term commitment to a high-attrition conflict.
AERIAL THREAT – DNIPROPETROVSK/SE (0753Z-0800Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): Russian tactical aviation has launched Guided Aerial Bombs (KAB) against eastern Dnipropetrovsk. A concurrent ballistic missile threat is active from the south-east.
C2 INTEGRATION – STARLINK VERIFICATION (0752Z, Operativnyi ZSU, HIGH): Digital Transformation Minister Fedorov confirmed a new verification process for Starlink terminals, establishing real-time data sharing between the UA MoD and SpaceX to secure operational communications.
MARITIME FRICTION – BALTIC ENFORCEMENT (0745Z, Kotsnews, HIGH): Russian state media has labeled the Estonian detention of a Russian-crewed vessel as "state piracy," heightening tensions in the Baltic Sea region.
INTERNAL FRICTION – LVIV TCC INCIDENT (0734Z, RBK-Ukraine, HIGH): A conscript died at a recruitment center (TCC) in Lviv; official claims cite alcohol poisoning, but the incident is being weaponized in the information space to degrade mobilization morale.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational tempo remains high despite the extreme cold (-27°C). The "negotiation by fire" strategy noted in the previous report has escalated to include Ukrainian deep strikes into Russian territory (Bryansk). Battlefield geometry is expanding west of Pokrovsk, with Russian forces attempting to consolidate a "salient" toward Dobropillya to outflank Ukrainian defensive lines.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat assessment)
Offensive Operations: The Russian focus has crystallized around the Dobropillya salient. By pushing toward Bilitske and Toretsk, RU forces aim to sever lateral logistics for the Ukrainian grouping in Pokrovsk.
Tactical Strikes: The 238th Brigade (RU) is successfully utilizing drone-corrected strikes against UA fixed assets (antennas and mortar positions) near Rayske (0800Z), indicating high-density surveillance in the Bakhmut-Kostyantynivka corridor.
Long-term Posture: The 2026 procurement goal of 310,000 units suggests Russia is currently in a "reload and expansion" phase of its industrial cycle, likely anticipating the conflict will persist well beyond any 2025-2026 diplomatic windows.
Naval Status: Continuous recruitment for contract service in the Black Sea Fleet (0733Z) suggests RU is attempting to replenish manpower for maritime or amphibious units despite high risk levels in the Black Sea.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue force tracking)
Strategic Counter-Strikes: The use of Neptune missiles for land-attack in Bryansk demonstrates UA's maturing domestic long-range capability and a refusal to allow RU territory to remain a "safe haven" during negotiations.
C3 Modernization: The formalization of Starlink registration with SpaceX provides UA with a more stable and "whitelisted" communication backbone, mitigating the risk of mass deactivations that have previously hindered operations.
Civil-Military Friction: The death in the Lviv TCC represents a significant domestic vulnerability. If not handled with transparency, such incidents provide fertile ground for Russian psychological operations (PSYOPS) targeting the UA mobilization base.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive domain)
Diversionary Narratives: Russian outlets are aggressively pushing Western "scandal" content (Epstein/Satoshi Nakamoto lists - 0800Z) and absurd geopolitical claims (Trump/Greenland - 0801Z) to saturate the information space and distract from tactical developments.
Reframing Legalities: Pro-Russian "Voenkors" (Kotyenok) are framing the Estonian maritime detention as a precursor to open war, likely to justify future RU provocations in the Baltic region.
Mobilization Sabotage: RU channels are amplifying the Lviv TCC death to portray the Ukrainian mobilization process as lethal to its own citizens.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future operations)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RU will maintain pressure on the Dobropillya-Bilitske axis to force a UA withdrawal from Toretsk. Tactical aviation will continue to prioritize Dnipropetrovsk to disrupt the flow of reserves toward the Pokrovsk front.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A Russian ballistic strike on critical infrastructure in Dnipro, timed with the ongoing KAB surge, could cause a localized collapse of the energy grid in a key logistical hub during the current deep freeze.
Decision Points: Successful UA verification of Starlink terminals may trigger a Russian electronic warfare (EW) surge to test the new registration protocols.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
High alert for ballistic impacts in SE Ukraine. Anticipate continued UA long-range drone/missile activity against RU border regions (Bryansk/Kursk) as a "counter-leverage" move during Abu Dhabi talks.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Confirm the specific impact locations and damage assessment of the Neptune/HIMARS strikes in Bryansk.
[HIGH] Verify the extent of Russian advances in the Bilitske/Dobropillya sector; determine if UA has established a secondary line of defense.
[MEDIUM] Monitor Russian naval recruitment numbers to assess potential for a localized amphibious or riverine operation in the spring.
