Situation Update (0233Z FEB 04 2026)
Key updates since last sitrep
- EXPANSION OF KAB STRIKES TO ZAPORIZHZHIA (0215Z, Air Force of the UAF, HIGH): Russian tactical aviation has launched Guided Aerial Bombs (KAB) against targets in the Zaporizhzhia operational zone.
- NORTHERN KAB LAUNCHES TOWARD KHARKIV (0217Z, Air Force of the UAF, HIGH): New KAB launches detected from the north, targeting the Kharkiv region, likely from the Belgorod (RF) axis.
- REPORTED CAPTURE OF SUKHETSKOYE (0215Z, TASS/RU MoD, MEDIUM): Russian Ministry of Defense released footage claiming the capture of Sukhetskoye in the Donetsk sector. UNCONFIRMED by UAF sources.
- REPORTS OF "RUSTY DAGGER" MISSILE TESTING (0230Z, RBK-Ukraine, LOW): Claims of a new US missile ("Rusty Dagger") with a 400km range tested for potential Ukrainian use. UNCONFIRMED and likely a strategic signaling effort.
- US-IRAN DIPLOMATIC MOVEMENT (0228Z, TASS/Axios, MEDIUM): Reports indicate potential US-Iran negotiations in Oman on Feb 6, which may impact Iranian drone/missile supply chains to Russia.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The Russian "City-Kill" campaign has intensified into a multi-domain aerial assault. While the previous report highlighted Sumy and Kherson, the last 30 minutes confirm a synchronized expansion to Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia. The battlefield geometry now reflects a 360-degree aerial threat environment. Environmental conditions remain critical at -27°C, amplifying the lethality of strikes against infrastructure.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat assessment)
- Donetsk Sector: The Russian MoD claims control of Sukhetskoye. If confirmed, this indicates a continued westward push to widen the salient around Pokrovsk or secure the flanks for a larger assault on Kurakhove.
- Air Operations: The VKS (Aerospace Forces) is maintaining a high sortie rate, utilizing "radial strikes" to saturate Ukrainian Air Defense across four distinct regions (Sumy, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv) simultaneously. This is a clear attempt to deplete interceptor stockpiles.
- Global Posture: The presence of RU military instructors in Africa (0204Z) confirms Russia is maintaining its expeditionary footprint despite high intensity in the Ukrainian theater, likely as a hybrid leverage point against Western interests.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue force tracking)
- Posture: UAF Air Defense is under extreme pressure to prioritize targets. The regional administrations in Zaporizhzhia (0210Z) and the Air Force are in high-alert status.
- New Capabilities: Reports of the "Rusty Dagger" missile (400km range) suggest a potential upcoming shift in UAF deep-strike capability. However, until deployment is confirmed, this remains an informational deterrent rather than an operational factor.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive domain)
- Russian Narrative: RU MoD is utilizing video evidence of Sukhetskoye to project momentum.
- Ukrainian Narrative: Focus is on the arrival of advanced Western technology (Rusty Dagger) to maintain morale during the "City-Kill" infrastructure strikes.
- Diplomatic Noise: The US-Iran talk reports serve as a potential disruptor to the RU-Iran military partnership narrative.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future operations)
- Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Continued KAB strikes on the Kharkiv-Zaporizhzhia axis over the next 6-12 hours, specifically targeting heating and power distribution nodes to capitalize on the -27°C freeze.
- Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A massive combined missile and drone strike tonight, timed to exploit GPS/radio degradation (from the solar flare) and the dispersal of AD assets caused by current KAB activity.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Expect sustained high-tempo aerial bombardment. The capture of Sukhetskoye, if verified, suggests localized ground breakthroughs in the Donetsk sector may follow the current aerial preparation. Critical infrastructure in Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia is at extreme risk.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
- [CRITICAL] Confirmation of the status of Sukhetskoye via independent UAF ground reconnaissance or satellite imagery.
- [HIGH] Technical verification of "Rusty Dagger" capabilities and deployment timelines to integrate into long-range fire plans.
- [MEDIUM] Monitoring of Iranian transport aviation to identify if the Oman talks (Feb 6) correlate with any pause in Shahed/missile deliveries.
//REPORT ENDS//
