EXPANSION OF KAB STRIKES TO KHERSON (0138Z, Air Force of the UAF, HIGH): Russian tactical aviation launched Guided Aerial Bombs (KAB) against targets in the Kherson operational zone.
NEW KAB STRIKES IN SUMY SECTOR (0146Z, Air Force of the UAF, HIGH): Tactical aviation activity detected in the northern sector with KAB launches confirmed against Sumy region.
KAB STRIKE TRAJECTORY TOWARD DNIPROPETROVSK (0149Z, Air Force of the UAF, HIGH): Guided munitions launched from the Donetsk sector are currently tracking toward the Dnipropetrovsk region, indicating a widening of the target radius.
SENSATIONALIST INFO-OP RE: EPSTEIN/PUTIN (0202Z, РБК-Україна, LOW): Emerging narratives linking Russian leadership to Jeffrey Epstein documents are circulating; likely intended as a cognitive distraction or to degrade the adversary’s international standing ahead of diplomatic talks.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The battlefield geometry is expanding from the localized Donetsk/Zaporizhzhia axes to include the Northern (Sumy) and Southern (Kherson) riverine flanks. The environmental factor remains the primary operational driver: temperatures as low as -27°C continue to weaponize infrastructure damage. The enemy is utilizing a "radial strike" pattern, launching KABs from established positions in Donetsk toward adjacent regions like Dnipropetrovsk to bypass localized air defense concentrations.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat assessment)
Capabilities & Intentions: The Russian VKS (Aerospace Forces) is demonstrating high sortie rates across multiple fronts (Sumy, Donetsk, Kherson). This multi-axis KAB employment suggests a coordinated effort to suppress Ukrainian Air Defense (AD) by forcing the dispersal of mobile fire groups.
Tactical Adaptations: The launch of KABs from the Donetsk sector toward Dnipropetrovsk (0149Z) suggests the enemy is utilizing the depth of occupied territory to strike targets in the Ukrainian rear while staying outside the immediate engagement zone of frontline AD.
Logistics: High activity at the 260th GRAU Arsenal (noted in previous 24h context) is now manifesting in this sustained multi-sector aerial bombardment.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue force tracking)
Posture: Ukrainian AD and Air Force assets are in an active interception and warning posture across the entirety of the Eastern and Southern operational zones.
Readiness: The ongoing CHP repairs in Kyiv (0105Z) remain the critical vulnerability. Any successful strike on the energy grid in Dnipropetrovsk or Sumy during this period will likely lead to rapid system-wide instability due to the extreme cold.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive domain)
Disinformation/Info-Ops: The introduction of sensationalist claims regarding the Epstein documents (0202Z) serves to clutter the information space. While potentially damaging to Putin's image, for tactical purposes, it functions as "noise" during high-intensity kinetic operations.
Dempster-Shafer Support: Analytic beliefs (0.34) suggest a significant portion of the current information flow is dominated by this conspiracy narrative, potentially masking more critical intelligence on Russian troop movements.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future operations)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Continued KAB strikes on Sumy and Kherson over the next 6 hours to fix Ukrainian forces in place and prevent the shifting of reserves to the Pokrovsk/Zaporizhzhia axes where ground pressure is highest.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A synchronized strike on the Dnipropetrovsk logistics hub using KABs to mask a follow-on cruise missile or "Kurier" ground robot assault in the Donetsk sector, aiming to exploit the solar-flare-induced GPS degradation.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
The operational tempo will remain high. The expansion of the strike zone to Sumy and Dnipropetrovsk indicates the "City-Kill" phase is entering a more aggressive, multi-regional stage. Expect localized infrastructure failures if heat circulation is not maintained.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Immediate Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) for Sumy and Kherson sectors following KAB strikes to identify targeted infrastructure types (Energy vs. Military).
[HIGH] Track movement of Russian "Sever" Group in the North; determine if KAB strikes in Sumy (0146Z) are a precursor to a renewed ground push.
[MEDIUM] Monitor GPS/Radio signal stability to confirm if solar flare degradation continues to facilitate Russian aviation ingress.
