KYIV INFRASTRUCTURE EMERGENCY (0105Z, РБК-Україна, HIGH): Critical repair operations are underway at a Kyiv Combined Heat and Power (CHP) plant following a Russian strike. Divers from Cherkasy are conducting underwater repairs in -15°C conditions to restore plant functionality.
KAB STRIKES ON DONETSK OBLAST (0112Z, Air Force of the UAF, HIGH): Russian tactical aviation has launched Guided Aerial Bombs (KAB) targeting Ukrainian positions and settlements in the Donetsk sector.
TACTICAL AVIATION SURGE IN SOUTH (0129Z, Air Force of the UAF, HIGH): Increased enemy tactical aviation activity detected over the southern operational zone; air raid alerts active in Zaporizhzhia (0119Z).
VDV DRONE PROPAGANDA CAMPAIGN (0104Z, Colonelcassad, LOW): Russian sources are amplifying narratives around an "elite" VDV drone battalion ("Osa" operator), likely to counter domestic concerns over frontline losses and emphasize technological parity.
RUSSIAN DOMESTIC CYBER INSTABILITY (0104Z, ТАСС, MEDIUM): Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs reports 25,000 IT-related economic crimes in 2025; indicates significant internal friction within the Russian digital/economic sphere.
Operational picture (by sector)
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment is characterized by a "City-Kill" strategy (as noted in previous reports) transitioning into a tactical aviation surge. Temperatures remain critical (-15°C in Kyiv, reportedly -27°C in other sectors), significantly increasing the lethality of any infrastructure damage. The frontline geometry is under pressure in the East (Donetsk) and South (Zaporizhzhia) due to heavy use of stand-off munitions (KABs).
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat assessment)
Aviation & Strike Assets: The enemy is maintaining a high tempo of KAB launches. This suggests that despite solar flare interference noted in previous 24h context, Russian pilots are either adapting to degraded GPS or utilizing simplified inertial guidance for area-denial strikes. The activity in the South (0129Z) suggests a possible coordinated strike mission against logistical hubs or energy infrastructure in the Zaporizhzhia-Dnipro corridor.
Drone Operations: Deployment of VDV drone specialists (0104Z) aligns with the previously reported use of "Rubicon" fiber-optic drones. The enemy is prioritizing the elimination of Ukrainian EW advantages through hard-wired or elite-operated platforms.
Internal State: The report of 25k IT crimes (0104Z) suggests the Russian domestic security apparatus is increasingly preoccupied with internal economic stability, potentially siphoning resources from frontline cyber operations.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (UAF)
Infrastructure Resilience: UAF and State Emergency Services are demonstrating high technical proficiency, exemplified by the Kyiv CHP diving operations (0105Z). This highlights the critical need for "keep-warm" circulation to prevent total system collapse in sub-zero temperatures.
Air Defense Posture: Mobile fire groups and AD units are currently tracking multiple tactical aviation threats in the Donetsk and Southern sectors.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive domain)
Reflexive Control: The "Osa" VDV operator narrative (0104Z) uses humanitarian framing ("neighbors... suffer") to justify aggression. This is a classic reflexive control tactic aimed at domestic Russian audiences to maintain mobilization support.
Infrastructure Narrative: Ukrainian reporting on the Kyiv CHP repair emphasizes the heroism of workers, aimed at bolstering domestic morale despite the "City-Kill" threat.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future operations)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Continued KAB bombardment of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia over the next 6 hours to soften defenses ahead of localized ground assaults. Tactical aviation will likely focus on energy nodes to exacerbate the effects of the freeze.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A massed, synchronized strike using tactical aviation from the South combined with the previously identified "missiles on trucks" at the 260th GRAU Arsenal to overwhelm Kyiv’s AD while CHP repairs are still underway.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
The kinetic intensity will remain high in the Donetsk and Southern sectors. Expect further reports of infrastructure strain as Russian aviation targets the grid during the peak cold period. The probability of further KAB launches remains HIGH.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Determine the operational status of the Kyiv CHP; assess if the "unique operation" by divers has successfully stabilized the heat supply for the capital.
[HIGH] Identify the specific airfields used for the 0129Z tactical aviation surge in the South to facilitate counter-battery or long-range drone strikes.
[MEDIUM] Corroborate Russian VDV drone battalion locations to assess if this "elite" unit is being deployed to the Pokrovsk or Zaporizhzhia axes.
