KINETIC: RF CAPTURE OF ZELENOYE (KHARKOV) (1735Z, MoD Russia, MEDIUM): The 9th Motorized Rifle Regiment (11th Army Corps) has reportedly seized Zelenoye. This indicates an expansion of the "Sever" Group's operational footprint in the northern border region.
C2/TECH: STARLINK REGISTRATION DEADLINE (1728Z, RBK-UA, HIGH): Ukraine has mandated the registration of all Starlink terminals via the "Diia" app or CNAP by February 3rd. This is a critical security measure to facilitate the lockout of "gray-market" terminals used by Russian forces.
STRATEGIC: IRGC DESIGNATED AS TERRORIST ORG (1734Z, Zelenskyy/Sternenko, HIGH): Ukraine has officially recognized the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization, citing their role in supplying the "Shahed" UAVs used in strikes against Ukrainian infrastructure.
SECURITY: MOSCOW METRO SURVEILLANCE CONFIRMED (1747Z, TASS, HIGH): Russian authorities have officially confirmed that "selective" mobile phone searches of passengers in the Moscow Metro are authorized, signaling heightened domestic paranoia and internal security tightening.
FINANCIAL: ENERGY SYSTEM AID (1743Z, Shmyhal/Operativno ZSU, HIGH): The World Bank has allocated $40 million for the emergency procurement of energy equipment to stabilize the grid ahead of predicted strikes.
AIR THREAT: UAV ACTIVITY IN SUMY AXIS (1734Z, UA Air Force, HIGH): Active "Shahed" (BpLA) presence detected over Putivl and Sumy city, suggesting a localized tactical recon or strike mission.
Operational picture (by sector)
Kharkov Sector: Russian "Sever" Group forces have achieved a tactical success by taking Zelenoye (1735Z). This suggests the enemy is maintaining pressure on the northern border to pin UAF reserves away from the Donbas.
Sloviansk / Donetsk Sector: Russian sources claim "successes" near Konstantinovka (1729Z, Rybar). This corroborates earlier reports of an urgent situation in the Sloviansk direction. UAF drone footage indicates Russia is utilizing "cripple squads" (personnel with pre-existing injuries) in high-attrition frontal assaults in this sector (1731Z).
Sumy Sector: Increased UAV activity (1734Z) indicates the sector remains under active reconnaissance or is the target of a localized harassing strike.
Zaporizhzhia Sector: While the air alarm for the city was cleared (1748Z), a "missile danger" remains active for the province, indicating the threat of ballistic or S-300 strikes persists.
Enemy analysis
Capabilities/Tactics: The deployment of personnel with visible physical disabilities in assault units (1731Z) indicates either severe localized manpower shortages or a deliberate "meat-grinder" policy to preserve elite units for a larger breakthrough.
Domestic Stability: The authorization of phone searches in Moscow (1747Z) and the appointment of Ksenia Shoigu to a strategic innovation role (1741Z) suggest the Kremlin is simultaneously tightening control and consolidating power among loyalist dynasties.
Courses of Action (COA): The enemy continues to disregard the extreme cold (-27°C), maintaining offensive tempo in the Kharkov and Sloviansk axes to exploit the weather-induced strain on UAF logistics.
Friendly forces (UAF)
C2 Security: The Starlink registration mandate (effective Feb 3) is a decisive move to sanitize the domestic communications environment and degrade RF tactical C2 capabilities (1728Z).
Logistics/Resilience: A new state support program (up to 15,000 UAH) for small businesses (FOPs) aims to maintain economic continuity by subsidizing heating and lighting costs (1731Z).
Diplomatic Posture: The IRGC designation (1734Z) synchronizes Ukraine with Western security priorities and provides a legal basis for targeting Iranian-linked facilitators of UAV transfers.
Information environment / disinformation
UNCONFIRMED CLAIM (LOW CONFIDENCE): Donald Trump's claim that India (PM Modi) has agreed to cease Russian oil purchases (1724Z, 1742Z) remains unverified by official Indian or US diplomatic sources. This is likely a political narrative rather than an established economic shift.
Corruption Narrative: Pro-Russian channels (Colonelcassad, 1740Z) are amplifying allegations of a massive corruption scheme involving the US firm Holtec and the Ukrainian energy sector. This is a clear attempt to undermine Western confidence in funding Ukraine's energy reconstruction.
Psychological Operations: Russian military bloggers continue to emphasize that weather will not stop the RU army (1724Z), aiming to demoralize UAF forces currently enduring the deep freeze.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Continuation of localized "Shahed" UAV strikes on Sumy and northern regions to trigger air defenses. Ground pressure on Konstantinovka and Zelenoye will likely intensify.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A major ballistic missile strike on the energy grid tonight, timed with the -27°C temperature nadir, to maximize humanitarian and industrial damage before the Feb 4 Abu Dhabi talks.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Verify the status of UAF defensive lines south of Zelenoye (Kharkov) to prevent a deeper penetration.
[HIGH] Confirm the scale of RF tactical Starlink usage to measure the impact of the Feb 3 lockout.
[MEDIUM] Monitor for official Indian government statements regarding oil trade to validate/invalidate the Trump-Modi claim.
[LOW] Assess the impact of the World Bank's $40M allocation on immediate grid repair timelines.
