KINETIC: RF ADVANCE IN SLOVIANSK SECTOR (1654Z, STERNENKO, MEDIUM): Urgent reports indicate Russian forces are successfully advancing in the Sloviansk direction; Ukrainian units are requesting immediate support.
STRATEGIC: NAVAL KALIBR RELOAD CONFIRMED (1653Z, Operativno ZSU, MEDIUM): Indicators show Russian naval vessels are being actively loaded with Kalibr cruise missiles, corroborating the "reload phase" identified in previous reports.
INFRASTRUCTURE: NATIONWIDE BLACKOUTS SCHEDULED (1700Z, Ukrenergo, HIGH): Official notification confirms hourly power outages and industrial power limits will be implemented across all Ukrainian regions on Feb 3 due to grid strain and expected strikes.
AIR THREAT: BALLISTIC MISSILE ALERT (1718Z, UA Air Force, HIGH): Active ballistic threat detected from the North-East direction; follows earlier UAV activity in Northern Zaporizhzhia (1653Z).
INTERNAL SECURITY: MOSCOW METRO PHONE SEARCHES (1702Z, Alex Parker/ASTRA, HIGH): Russian Ministry of Transport has authorized selective phone searches in the Moscow Metro, citing "difficult times," indicating a significant tightening of domestic control.
DIPLOMATIC: GEOPOLITICAL CLAIM RE: INDIAN OIL (1706Z, TASS/Sternenko, LOW): Claims sourced to Donald Trump suggest India has agreed to cease Russian oil purchases. UNCONFIRMED by official Indian or US diplomatic channels.
Operational picture (by sector)
Sloviansk Sector: Critical situation developing. Russian forces have achieved a tactical breakthrough or significant push (1654Z). This sector now requires immediate ISR focus to determine the depth of the penetration.
Zaporizhzhia / South-Dnipropetrovsk Sector: RF "Vostok" Group (specifically units from Buryatia) are utilizing UAVs to target Ukrainian shelters (1704Z). UAV activity is trending westward across Northern Zaporizhzhia (1653Z), suggesting a broadening of the axis of attack beyond Pridorozhne.
Donetsk Sector: Heavy siege tactics continue. Russian "Tsentr" Group remains the primary threat actor in the Pokrovsk axis (ref. baseline).
Northern Border: Continued ballistic threats from the NE (1718Z).
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Course of Action (COA): The enemy is synchronizing ground advances in Sloviansk with a looming mass missile strike. The confirmation of Kalibr loading (1653Z) and the completion of the strategic aviation "reload phase" suggest a multi-axis (Sea/Air/Land) strike is imminent.
Tactical Adaptation: Increased use of UAVs for precision strikes on personnel shelters in the "Vostok" AO (1704Z) indicates a move to degrade UAF sustainability in extreme cold (-27°C).
C2 & Logistics: Russia is messaging heavily on "intercity taxi" services to SVO territories (1700Z), likely masking troop rotations or civilian-contractor movements.
Rhetoric: The Russian MID has officially designated any Western military presence in Ukraine as "foreign intervention" (1703Z), providing a legalistic pretext for further escalation or strikes against Western personnel.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Grid Management: Ukrenergo is transitioning to a "managed deficit" mode for Feb 3 (1702Z). This is a proactive measure to prevent total grid collapse during the deep freeze and expected kinetic strikes.
Personnel Recovery: Ukrainian authorities received 200 sets of remains; however, the RF claim of returning 12,000 sets since June 2025 (1707Z) is likely inflated for psychological impact.
Electronic Warfare: Implementation of Starlink audits (ref. baseline) remains the priority to blind RF tactical units utilizing gray-market terminals.
Information environment / disinformation
Psychological Operations: State TV (Solovyov) is floating the use of nuclear weapons in space (1655Z), likely intended to signal "total war" capability to Western audiences ahead of the NATO SecGen's visit.
Diplomatic Maneuvering: Russia is flooding the information space with "normalization" proposals to the US (1710Z) and claims of constant RU-US dialogue (1715Z) to create a narrative of Western-Russian rapprochement that excludes Ukrainian interests.
Sanctions Counter-Narrative: Pro-Russian channels are amplifying the EU's phased gas ban (1703Z) to emphasize the "energy war" ahead of the Feb 4 Abu Dhabi talks.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): A massive coordinated strike (Kalibr, Kh-101, Shahed) tonight targeting energy hubs and C2 centers. High probability of ballistic strikes on Kyiv.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A Russian breakthrough in the Sloviansk sector that forces a premature withdrawal of UAF units, coupled with a total grid failure during the -27°C freeze.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Determine the exact location and scale of the RF advance in the Sloviansk direction (1654Z).
[HIGH] Confirm the current location of Black Sea Fleet Kalibr-carriers (Subs/Frigates) following reports of "loading" (1653Z).
[MEDIUM] Corroborate the Indian oil purchase claim through non-political economic intelligence channels.
[MEDIUM] Monitor the impact of the Moscow Metro phone searches on Russian internal stability and anti-war sentiment.
