KINETIC: CHERKASY CONVERGENCE (2351Z, AFU Air Force, HIGH): Multiple groups of strike UAVs are converging on Cherkasy from both northern and southern vectors, indicating a coordinated pincer strike on the city's infrastructure.
KINETIC: KIROVOHRAD VECTOR (2348Z, AFU Air Force, HIGH): UAVs detected moving toward Pomichna from the south, likely targeting the railway junction or local power distribution nodes.
KINETIC: ZAPORIZHZHIA THREAT (2341Z, AFU Air Force, HIGH): New UAV vector identified approaching Zaporizhzhia from the east, adding pressure to an already stressed southern air defense sector.
KINETIC: POLTAVA CONSOLIDATION (2325Z, AFU Air Force, HIGH): UAVs are transiting southward through the Komyshnya-Romodan-Myrhorod-Khorol corridor, potentially targeting the Myrhorod airbase or regional energy assets.
KINETIC: WESTWARD TRANSIT (2349Z, AFU Air Force, HIGH): A strike UAV is transiting north of Kryvyi Rih on a western heading, suggesting a deep-rear target in the Kirovohrad or Vinnytsia Oblasts.
Operational picture (by sector)
Central Sector (Cherkasy/Poltava): This is currently the most active area. The enemy is utilizing the Kremenchuk Reservoir as a navigation landmark to funnel UAVs toward Smila and Cherkasy. The "Irdyn" vector (2332Z) confirms the swarm is penetrating deep into the Cherkasy Oblast marshlands to mask acoustic signatures.
Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kryvyi Rih): Activity is expanding. While the previous report focused on Mykolaiv, the 2341Z update shows a new eastern approach to Zaporizhzhia, suggesting a flanking maneuver to bypass established AD screens.
Eastern Sector (Pokrovsk/Donbas): (Baseline) RF continues to leverage fiber-optic "Rubicon" drones to bypass EW. No new tactical updates in the last 30 minutes, but the ground offensive remains the primary fixating force for UAF reserves.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
UAV Swarm Tactics: The RF is currently executing a "Saturation and Convergence" profile. Instead of single-file lines, UAVs are being routed from multiple points (North, East, South) to meet at a single target (Cherkasy) simultaneously. This is designed to overwhelm the Fire Control Radars of local AD batteries.
Strategic Missile Readiness: (Contextual Judgment) High activity scores for the 344th and 586th Regiments (29th Guards Missile Division) reported earlier remain the primary concern. The current UAV swarm is likely the "shaping" phase to deplete AD interceptors before a heavy missile volleys.
Domestic Rear: Russian MVD recruitment activity in Khabarovsk Krai (2334Z) indicates a continued push to backfill internal security forces, likely to manage domestic stability or to free up Rosgvardia units for occupied territories.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense: UAF Air Force is maintaining high-tempo tracking and reporting despite the ongoing X-class solar flare. Signal degradation is likely forcing increased reliance on mobile fire groups (MFGs) and visual/acoustic spotting.
Grid Management: Emergency measures are likely being implemented in Cherkasy and Kirovohrad as UAVs approach key distribution nodes (Smila, Pomichna).
Information environment / disinformation
Geopolitical Distraction: Pro-Russian channels (Colonelcassad, 2324Z) are circulating inflammatory and likely fabricated quotes regarding US territorial ambitions (Canada/Greenland/Venezuela). This is a classic hybrid warfare tactic to induce "information noise" and distract from kinetic operations in Ukraine. (UNCONFIRMED / LOW CONFIDENCE).
Diplomatic Friction: Reports of US-Cuba tensions (2343Z) and Russian complaints regarding the IOC (2344Z) are being amplified by state media (TASS) to project a narrative of global instability and Western "exclusionary" policies.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Impact in Cherkasy and Smila within the next 60-90 minutes. UAVs will continue to loiter over Central Ukraine to identify AD positions.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A massed missile launch from the 29th Guards Missile Division timed for 0300Z-0450Z, specifically targeting the high-voltage interconnector with Moldova and the remaining thermal generation in the Dnipro/Kyiv arc.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Confirmation of whether UAVs in the Cherkasy sector are targeting the TPPs or the Kremenchuk Hydroelectric Power Plant infrastructure.
[HIGH] Monitor for any shift in UAV flight altitudes; "low and slow" profiles may indicate an attempt to exploit the current GPS degradation.
[MEDIUM] Verify the source of the "Canada/Greenland" narrative to determine if this is a precursor to a wider Russian psychological operation targeting Western unity.
