Situation Update (2321 UTC Feb 01, 2026)
Key updates since last sitrep
- KINETIC: CONFIRMED IMPACT IN DNIPROPETROVSK (2314Z, Colonelcassad, HIGH): Visual evidence confirms a successful strike on an infrastructure object in the Dnipropetrovsk region. This aligns with ongoing efforts to interdict the coal supply chain for thermal power plants (TPPs).
- KINETIC: WESTWARD UAV EXPANSION (2319Z, AFU Air Force, HIGH): UAV swarms have penetrated Western Cherkasy Oblast, specifically targeting the Tsvitkove and Korsun-Shevchenkivskyi sectors.
- KINETIC: POLTAVA VECTOR REFINEMENT (2305Z, AFU Air Force, HIGH): Persistent UAV activity over Komyshnya, Orzhytsya, and Pyryatyn indicates a sustained effort to suppress air defenses and monitor transit corridors in central Ukraine.
- KINETIC: SOUTHERN AXIS MOVEMENT (2258Z, AFU Air Force, HIGH): UAVs detected in Eastern Mykolaiv heading North-West, likely targeting regional energy distribution hubs or the Moldova-Ukraine interconnector.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The Russian Federation (RF) is currently executing a coordinated, multi-domain offensive aimed at the total degradation of Ukraine's energy generation capacity. The battlefield geometry now includes deep-rear energy production sites (coal mines) in addition to front-line tactical engagements.
- Environmental Factors: Temperatures remain at critical lows. An active X-class solar flare is currently causing degradation in GPS and HF radio signals, directly impacting the precision and coordination of Ukrainian Air Defense (AD) units during this multi-vector UAV raid.
- Control Measures: RF forces are utilizing a "negotiation by fire" posture, intentionally escalating strikes following the stalling of diplomatic talks.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
- Primary Resource Interdiction: RF has transitioned from targeting the electrical grid (substations) to the fuel supply chain (coal mines). This strategy aims to create a permanent generation deficit that cannot be bypassed by grid rerouting.
- Tactical Adaptations:
- Fiber-Optic FPVs: In the Pokrovsk sector, RF units (e.g., 150th Motorized Rifle Division) are deploying "Rubicon" fiber-optic guided drones. These are immune to electronic warfare (EW) as they do not rely on radio frequencies.
- Robotic Ground Assaults: Deployment of "Kurier" ground robots with thermobaric launchers by VDV units suggests a shift toward minimizing RF infantry exposure in trench clearing operations.
- C2 and Sustainment: High activity scores (11.04/10.80) for the 344th and 586th Regiments of the 29th Guards Missile Division suggest strategic missile assets are in a high state of readiness for a follow-on heavy missile strike (Daily Brief).
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
- Air Defense Posture: UAF Air Force is actively tracking at least five distinct clusters of "Geran/Shahed" UAVs. The degradation of GPS due to solar activity (Daily Brief) likely necessitates a shift to visual or acoustic tracking methods where available.
- Grid Stability: The southern grid is currently buoyed by the 500 MW interconnector with Moldova, though the current UAV vector in Mykolaiv (2258Z) poses a direct threat to this "lifeline."
- Internal Security: UAF is purging unverified Starlink terminals to prevent RF usage of gray-market hardware.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
- RF Propaganda: Pro-Russian channels (Colonelcassad, Операция Z) are aggressively promoting narratives of "European investments in nowhere," alleging systemic corruption in reconstruction funds to erode Western support (2309Z).
- Psychological Operations: RF-aligned sources are leveraging the extreme cold ("Frost heals all ills") to demoralize the civilian population facing prolonged blackouts (2305Z).
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
- Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RF will maintain the UAV swarm presence through 0400Z to exhaust AD munitions and identify gaps. This will be followed by precision strikes on coal processing and transport hubs in the Dnipropetrovsk and Poltava regions.
- Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A massed missile strike (Kalibr/Kh-101) launched by the 29th Guards Missile Division, timed for the pre-dawn period (0300Z-0500Z) to exploit the current AD saturation and solar-induced signal degradation, targeting the Kyiv energy hub.
- Timeline: The window for high-intensity kinetic impact in Cherkasy and Mykolaiv is 0000Z–0200Z Feb 02.
6. OUTLOOK (Next 6-12h)
Expect a critical deterioration of the energy situation in Central Ukraine. Blackouts in the Cherkasy and Poltava regions are likely to shift from "scheduled" to "emergency." Ground operations near Pokrovsk will likely intensify as RF attempts to capitalize on the technical advantages of fiber-optic FPVs.
7. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
- [CRITICAL] BDA (Battle Damage Assessment) of the infrastructure object hit in Dnipropetrovsk (2314Z). Identify if the target was a mine, transport hub, or TPP.
- [HIGH] Real-time monitoring of the 29th Guards Missile Division launch sites for thermal signatures indicating missile egress.
- [MEDIUM] Assessment of the effectiveness of fiber-optic FPVs in the Pokrovsk sector to determine necessary EW or kinetic counter-measures.
//REPORT ENDS//
