Situation Update (2251 UTC Feb 01, 2026)
Key updates since last sitrep
- STRATEGIC KINETIC: ATTACK ON COAL INFRASTRUCTURE (2232Z, RBK-UA/Sybiha, HIGH): Russian forces have targeted coal mining operations and personnel. Foreign Minister Sybiha confirmed strikes against "miners," marking a significant shift in targeting from energy distribution (substations) to primary energy production and fuel supply chains.
- KINETIC: TERMINATION OF "ENERGY TRUCE" (2250Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): Pro-Russian sources explicitly state that the "energy truce" is over, claiming massive strikes on coal mines supplying Thermal Power Stations (TPS) in the Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia regions.
- KINETIC: MULTI-VECTOR UAV SWARM (2222Z-2249Z, AFU Air Force, HIGH): A large-scale "Geran/Shahed" raid is currently active across multiple axes:
- Northern Axis: UAVs from Sumy/Kharkiv vectoring toward Poltava and Pyriatyn.
- Southern Axis: UAVs over Velyka Oleksandrivka (Kherson) moving toward Mykolaiv.
- Central Axis: Confirmed arrivals/impacts in Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts.
- DIPLOMATIC: SYBIHA STATEMENT (2232Z, RBK-UA, HIGH): Ukraine's Foreign Ministry is leveraging the strikes on civilian miners to reiterate that a "just peace" is the only acceptable outcome, signaling no diplomatic concessions despite the escalating grid pressure.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational environment has shifted from infrastructure harassment to a coordinated strategic offensive against Ukraine's energy autonomy.
- Battlefield Geometry: The conflict has expanded into the "fuel-to-power" cycle. By targeting coal mines, Russia is attempting to create a permanent structural deficit in thermal power generation. The current UAV swarm is geographically dispersed, stretching Air Defense (AD) from Mykolaiv in the south to Pyriatyn in the north-central region.
- Environmental Factors: Extreme cold remains the primary force multiplier for Russian strikes. The X-class solar flare (from previous report) continues to complicate GPS-reliant AD interceptions during this multi-vector raid.
- Force Dispositions: Russian forces are utilizing northern launch points (Kursk/Belgorod) to saturate the Poltava/Sumy corridor while simultaneously pushing southern vectors from occupied Kherson/Crimea.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
- Course of Action (COA): Russia is executing a "Primary Resource Interdiction" strategy. By hitting coal mines, they bypass the repairs made to the high-voltage grid (e.g., the Moldova link) by ensuring the TPPs have no fuel to burn.
- UAV Tactics: The movement toward Pyriatyn (2226Z) is a deliberate deep-penetration attempt into the Poltava region, likely targeting gas compression stations or local rail junctions used for coal transport.
- Sustainment: The mention of "substantial arrivals" in Dnipropetrovsk (2250Z) suggests that the Pavlohrad coal basin—the heart of Ukraine's remaining thermal coal production—is the current center of gravity for Russian strategic aviation and UAVs.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)
- AD Posture: AFU Air Force is actively tracking at least four distinct UAV groups. The southern group (2246Z) moving from Kherson to Mykolaiv poses a threat to the southern energy "lifeline" recently stabilized by the Moldova connection.
- Critical Infrastructure: Mining operations in the Dnipropetrovsk region are likely moving to emergency protocols. The loss of mining personnel (2232Z) will have a long-term impact on extraction rates and energy security.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
- Russian Narrative: RU-aligned channels (Colonelcassad) are framing the strikes as a response to the collapse of negotiations, using the term "energy truce is over" to signal a transition to total infrastructure warfare.
- Ukrainian Narrative: Official channels are framing the strikes on miners as war crimes against civilian labor, aimed at maintaining international pressure and securing further AD support.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
- Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): The UAV groups currently over Poltava and Sumy will converge on the Kyiv-Poltava-Kharkiv transit corridor within the next 3-6 hours. Expect secondary strikes on coal storage facilities and rail loading docks in the Pavlohrad area.
- Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A synchronized missile strike (exploiting the high activity of the 29th Guards Missile Division noted in the daily report) to hit the Kyiv grid while it is already under "scheduled outage" strain, timed with the arrival of the current UAV swarms to overwhelm AD.
- Timeline: Peak kinetic activity for the Mykolaiv and Central Poltava sectors is expected between 0000Z and 0300Z Feb 02.
6. OUTLOOK (Next 6-12h)
The energy situation will likely deteriorate from "critical" to "emergency" as the impact of coal mine strikes begins to affect TPP output. Expect expanded blackout schedules beyond Kyiv into the Poltava and Dnipropetrovsk regions. UAV activity will likely persist until dawn.
7. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
- [CRITICAL] Confirm specific mine locations hit in the Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia axis. Assess damage to extraction machinery vs. transport infrastructure.
- [HIGH] Monitor for the launch of Kalibr or Kh-101 cruise missiles to supplement the current UAV raid.
- [MEDIUM] Verify the status of the Mykolaiv AD umbrella; determine if the southern UAV vector is a feint or a primary strike on the Moldova-Ukraine interconnector.
//REPORT ENDS//
