Situation Update (1821 UTC Feb 01, 2026)
Key updates since last sitrep
- KINETIC: LARGE-SCALE UAF UAV STRIKE ON KRASNODAR KRAI (1801Z-1819Z, Multiple RU Sources, HIGH): Significant Ukrainian drone activity reported across multiple locations in Krasnodar Krai, including Afipsky (refinery site), Primorsko-Akhtarsk (Shahed launch hub), and Slavyansk-na-Kubani. Russian air defense is actively engaged.
- GROUND WAR: RUSSIAN ADVANCE TOWARD LYPTSI (1821Z, Rybar/Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): Pro-Russian sources report tactical advances by the "Sever" Grouping in the Kharkiv direction, specifically on the approaches to Lyptsi. This represents a renewed push toward Kharkiv’s outer defensive ring.
- AERIAL: CESSATION OF BALLISTIC THREAT (1758Z, Air Force AFU, HIGH): The earlier ballistic missile alert for Northeastern Ukraine has been cleared, though UAV threats persist in other sectors.
- DIPLOMATIC: UAE TALKS TIMELINE CONFIRMED (1800Z, Zelenskyy, HIGH): President Zelenskyy confirmed trilateral negotiations in the UAE are set for next Wednesday and Thursday, reinforcing the "negotiation by fire" strategic context.
- AERIAL: UAV INGRESS SUMY/ZAPORIZHZHIA (1801Z-1810Z, Air Force AFU, HIGH): New Shahed-type UAV vectors identified heading toward Okhtyrka (Sumy) and moving West from Zaporizhzhia.
- ENERGY: BALTIC GAS RESERVES CRITICAL (1759Z, TASS, MEDIUM): Gazprom reports Baltic underground storage levels have fallen below 30%, signaling potential energy leverage/pressure on Finland and the Baltic states.
- LEGAL HYBRID: YATSENYUK PLACED ON WANTED LIST (1754Z, Basurin, MEDIUM): Russia has issued a warrant for former Ukrainian PM Yatsenyuk, a standard hybrid tactic used to criminalize Ukrainian leadership and populate domestic "enemy" narratives.
Operational picture (by sector)
Kharkiv Sector (Lyptsi):
New reports indicate the Russian "Sever" Grouping has intensified ground operations toward Lyptsi (1821Z). This sector is critical terrain; control of Lyptsi provides RU with tube artillery range of Kharkiv's outskirts. UAF forces are likely engaging in mobile defense to stall this momentum.
Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Vostok):
Russian VDV (Airborne) tank crews from Novorossiysk are reportedly training for integrated assault support (1801Z). This suggests a transition from static defense to localized counter-assaults or "active defense" maneuvers. New UAV threats are tracking West from Zaporizhzhia, likely targeting logistics nodes or AD sites in the Dnipro/Kryvyi Rih corridor (1810Z).
Russian Rear (Krasnodar Krai):
The intensity of the UAF UAV strike (spanning Krasnodar, Afipsky, and Primorsko-Akhtarsk) (1808Z) indicates a coordinated effort to disrupt RU's southern logistics and Shahed launch infrastructure. Primorsko-Akhtarsk is a primary staging point for long-range UAV strikes against Ukraine; targeting it directly is a proactive counter-battery measure.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
- Course of Action: Russia is maintaining ground pressure in the North (Kharkiv/Lyptsi) while rotating VDV units in the South for potential assault operations. The depletion of Baltic gas (1759Z) suggests a secondary hybrid front aimed at weakening European resolve as the UAE talks approach.
- Capabilities: RU AD is currently stressed in the Krasnodar region, demonstrating a potential gap in rear-area protection when faced with saturated UAV attacks.
- Tactical Adaptation: The use of tank crews to support airborne assault groups (1801Z) indicates a move toward higher-intensity, combined-arms tactical units rather than pure infantry "meat" assaults in specific sectors.
Friendly activity (UAF)
- Deep Strike Operations: UAF has shifted focus to the Krasnodar region, likely aiming to hit fuel infrastructure (Afipsky) and aerial launch sites to degrade RU's nightly strike capacity.
- AD Management: UAF AD is successfully cycling alerts, clearing ballistic threats (1758Z) while maintaining tracking on low-altitude UAVs in Sumy and Zaporizhzhia.
- Resource Mobilization: Civil-military fundraising (Sternenko, 1807Z) and unit promotion (Butusov, 1814Z) continue to provide high-frequency support for tactical equipment like FPV drones and knives.
Information environment / disinformation
- Epstein/Putin Narrative: (1801Z, ASTRA) Emergence of narratives linking Russian leadership to Epstein files. This is likely a counter-hybrid effort to damage Putin's reputation in Western conservative circles.
- Iran De-escalation Signals: (1815Z, Alex Parker) Reports of Iranian willingness to negotiate on nuclear issues via the US/Trump channel. While UNCONFIRMED and LOW confidence, this suggests a potential shift in the RU-IR axis if Iran prioritizes sanctions relief over regional escalation.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
- MLCOA (Most Likely): Continued UAV ingress into Central Ukraine. UAF will likely conduct a BDA (Battle Damage Assessment) of the Krasnodar strikes to determine if follow-up strikes are needed.
- MDCOA (Most Dangerous): A sudden RU breakthrough in the Lyptsi sector (Kharkiv) using the "Sever" grouping's reported gains to establish new fire positions overlooking Kharkiv city.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
- [HIGH] Confirm the extent of damage at the Afipsky oil refinery and Primorsko-Akhtarsk airfield following the UAV strikes.
- [HIGH] Verify the depth of the Russian advance in the Lyptsi sector (Kharkiv) via satellite imagery or ground-truth reports.
- [MEDIUM] Monitor for RU retaliatory strikes originating from the Black Sea Fleet in response to the Krasnodar and Sevastopol alerts.
- [LOW] Track the validity of reports regarding an Iran-US "deal" to determine impact on Shahed supply chains.
//REPORT ENDS//
