Situation Update (1751 UTC Feb 01, 2026)
Key updates since last sitrep
- DIPLOMATIC: TRILATERAL TALKS ANNOUNCED (1723Z, Zelenskyy/Sinyehubov, HIGH): President Zelenskyy confirmed trilateral negotiations are scheduled for next Wednesday and Thursday in the UAE. This aligns with the "negotiation by fire" context but signals a concrete diplomatic window.
- KINETIC: MINKIVKA ENGAGEMENT (1728Z, Сливочный каприз, MEDIUM): Tactical activity reported in Minkivka (NW of Bakhmut). This indicates a persistent Russian effort to widen the northern flank of the Bakhmut sector despite the weather.
- AERIAL: MULTI-VECTOR UAV/BALLISTIC THREAT (1733Z-1749Z, Air Force AFU, HIGH): New UAV vectors identified targeting Shostka (from South) and Sumy (from North). Simultaneously, a ballistic missile threat has been issued for Northeastern Ukraine.
- STRATEGIC AERIAL: RECORD BALLISTIC USAGE (1741Z, Операция Z, HIGH): Ukrainian analysts report Russia used a record number of ballistic missiles in January 2026, suggesting a shift toward high-velocity, difficult-to-intercept munitions to bypass AD.
- COUNTER-OFFENSIVE: SEVASTOPOL AIR ALERT (1745Z, Colonelcassad, HIGH): Air raid sirens active in Sevastopol. RU sources suggest the "truce" regarding UAV usage in Crimea has ended (1747Z, Два майора).
- INTERNAL RU: EXTRAJUDICIAL KILLINGS (1726Z, БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС/Vyorstka, MEDIUM): Reports emerge of systemic "nullification" (extrajudicial killings) of Russian personnel by their own units, indicating severe disciplinary and morale crises in RU frontline formations.
- GLOBAL HYBRID: IRAN INTERNAL INSTABILITY (1751Z, ТАСС, MEDIUM): Iran officially lists 2,986 victims of recent internal unrest, coinciding with Khamenei’s warnings of regional war if the US attacks (1746Z).
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Border (Sumy/Shostka):
Pressure on the northern corridor is intensifying with multi-directional UAV ingress. The vector toward Shostka from the south (1733Z) suggests RU is utilizing complex flight paths to bypass localized EW/AD pockets. The ballistic threat from the NE (1749Z) puts the entire Sumy/Kharkiv logistics hub at high risk tonight.
Donbas (Bakhmut Sector):
The focus has shifted slightly NW toward Minkivka (1728Z). This suggests RU forces are attempting to pressure the M-03 highway or disrupt UAF defensive depth northwest of Bakhmut. The intensity remains tactical but indicates RU is not yet culminating in this sector.
Crimea & Black Sea:
The air raid in Sevastopol (1745Z) signals a likely UAF attempt to disrupt RU naval logistics or C2 hubs. RU milbloggers perceive this as a definitive end to any perceived "quiet period" in the peninsula, likely prompting immediate RU retaliatory strikes against Odesa or Mykolaiv.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
- Course of Action: Russia is leaning heavily into ballistic platforms (1741Z) to compensate for UAF's improving counter-UAV measures. The record usage in January indicates a stabilized supply chain (likely via North Korean or Iranian transfers) and a doctrine of "kinetic exhaustion" ahead of next week's UAE talks.
- Personnel/Morale: The Vyorstka report on "nullification" (1726Z) suggests that RU commanders are using lethal force to prevent retreats or refusals to assault. While brutal, this indicates a high degree of desperation to maintain offensive momentum.
- Logistics: The ballistic threat from the NE suggests launchers are repositioned in the Kursk/Belgorod border regions, capable of striking deep into the Ukrainian rear within minutes.
Friendly activity (UAF)
- Strategic Readiness: President Zelenskyy is pivoting toward a high-intensity diplomatic month (1728Z). This suggests UAF is aiming to "hold the line" through February while securing multi-lateral support or "frozen asset" financing for reconstruction (1723Z).
- Force Protection: UAF AD is currently tracking multiple small-target threats (UAVs) while preparing for high-velocity ballistic interceptions. The "All Clear" in southern sectors earlier has been superseded by the new NE ballistic threat.
Information environment / disinformation
- "Humiliation" Narrative: RU-aligned sources (Basurin, 1723Z) are preemptively framing the UAE talks as "humiliating" for Moscow, likely to manage domestic expectations if concessions are discussed or to justify a further escalation of force before the meeting.
- Conspiracy Diversion: Heavy amplification of US-centric conspiracy theories (Trump/Cuba, Mexican models/Epstein files) by RU channels (TASS, Alex Parker) continues, serving as "noise" to distract from internal RU military discipline issues.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
- MLCOA (Most Likely): A coordinated ballistic and UAV strike on Sumy and Shostka within the next 4 hours. RU will attempt to hit energy or military-industrial targets to gain leverage before the Wednesday UAE meeting.
- MDCOA (Most Dangerous): A multi-axis missile strike on Kyiv and central hubs timed with the -26°C temperature trough, utilizing the newly identified ballistic "record volume" capability to overwhelm AD.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
- [HIGH] Identify the specific origin and platform of the ballistic threat from the NE (e.g., Iskander-M vs. KN-23).
- [HIGH] Assess the impact of "nullification" reports on RU frontline stability; determine if this is localized to specific units (e.g., "Storm-Z") or widespread across the MoD.
- [MEDIUM] Verify the nature of the Sevastopol alert—determine if it was a successful UAF strike or an RU AD false positive.
- [MEDIUM] Confirm the participants of the UAE "trilateral" meeting—specifically the identity of the third party (US, China, or Turkey).
//REPORT ENDS//
