Situation Update (1721 UTC Feb 01, 2026)
Key updates since last sitrep
- KINETIC: RU OFFENSIVE NEAR ORIKHIV (1708Z, Операция Z, MEDIUM): Russian "Valkyrie" units have launched assault operations in the Zaporizhzhia sector toward Orikhiv. This suggests a widening of the offensive beyond the Kharkiv/Lyptsi axis.
- AERIAL: SUMY UAV THREAT (1702Z, Air Force AFU, HIGH): A hostile UAV has been detected entering Sumy airspace from the north. This follows earlier reconnaissance activity in the sector.
- TECH: STARLINK VELOCITY LIMITATIONS (1720Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): Reports indicate Starlink terminals are disconnecting at speeds exceeding 90 km/h. This technical constraint likely precludes their use on fixed-wing UAVs without significant modification.
- CIVIL UNREST: KHARKIV UTILITY PROTESTS (1701Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): Localized road blockades reported in Kharkiv due to sustained utility failures (heat/water) during extreme cold.
- TACTICAL TECH: ROBOTIC CASEVAC SUCCESS (1719Z, Оперативний ЗСУ, HIGH): Ukrainian Border Guards successfully utilized a ground-based robot to evacuate a wounded UAV pilot under fire.
- GEOPOLITICAL: IRAN-EU ESCALATION (1714Z, РБК-Україна, MEDIUM): Iran has declared all EU armies "terrorist organizations," significantly heightening the risk of multi-theater conflict.
- HYBRID: US-CUBA EMERGENCY (1718Z, Стрелков Игорь Иванович, LOW/UNCONFIRMED): Unconfirmed reports of a US State of Emergency declared by President Trump regarding a national security threat from Cuba. This likely functions as a "distraction" narrative in the RU information space.
- ENVIRONMENTAL: EXTREME COAL (1720Z, TASS, HIGH): Temperatures in the Moscow/Eastern theater are forecast to drop to -26°C tonight, increasing the lethality of infrastructure strikes.
Operational picture (by sector)
Kharkiv / Northern Border:
The internal situation in Kharkiv is deteriorating. Civil disturbances (1701Z) driven by freezing temperatures and utility failures provide RU with a psychological pressure point. In the air, a new UAV vector from the north (1702Z) targets Sumy, maintaining the trend of multi-axis aerial pressure.
Zaporizhzhia Sector:
The sector has transitioned from aerial bombardment (KABs) to ground-level initiative. RU forces, specifically the "Valkyrie" units, are active near Orikhiv (1708Z). This suggests RU is testing UAF line strength in the south while UAF reserves are focused on the "Sever" grouping's push in the north.
Donbas / Central Sector:
While no specific new ground movement was reported in the last 30 minutes, the "fiber-optic" drone threat noted in previous reports remains the primary tactical concern for UAF armor and fixed positions.
Rear / Logistics:
UAF is successfully integrating unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) for CASEVAC, reducing personnel risk in "last mile" logistics (1719Z). Conversely, RU is aggressively recruiting via "African Corps" and high-incentive MoD contracts (1659Z), signaling a need to replenish losses from the current "negotiation by fire" phase.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
- Tactical Adaptation: The RU focus on Starlink's velocity threshold (1720Z) indicates an active effort to map and exploit technical vulnerabilities in UAF's C2 and long-range strike capabilities.
- Logistics & Health: The confirmation of Monkeypox in Domodedovo (1653Z) and the -26°C cold snap (1720Z) suggest potential RU rear-area friction, though weather conditions favor RU's current strategy of targeting the Ukrainian energy grid.
- Geopolitical Diversion: RU media is heavily amplifying US-Cuba tensions and Iran-EU friction to foster a perception of Western strategic overstretch.
Friendly activity (UAF)
- Innovative CASEVAC: Deployment of ground robotics (1719Z) demonstrates a maturing unmanned ecosystem capable of sustaining force protection under high-intensity fire.
- Civil Defense: Local leadership in Kryvyi Rih (Vilkyl, 1701Z) is shifting focus to small business support to maintain economic resilience during the protracted blackout phase.
- Air Defense: Successful "All Clear" in Zaporizhzhia (1655Z) indicates effective interception or temporary RU loitering, though the Sumy threat remains active.
Information environment / disinformation
- "Abandonment" Narrative: Statements by German MoD Pistorius (1654Z) regarding Ukraine’s potential collapse without aid are being amplified by RU sources to degrade UAF morale.
- Unity Propaganda: RU-aligned channels are emphasizing the Putin-Kadyrov "partnership" (1703Z) to project domestic stability amidst recruitment drives and high casualties.
- Technical Sabotage: RU reports on Starlink limitations are likely intended to discourage UAF reliance on the system for high-speed platforms.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
- MLCOA (Most Likely): RU will launch a major drone and missile wave tonight, timed specifically to coincide with the -26°C temperature drop to maximize the humanitarian impact of utility failures.
- MDCOA (Most Dangerous): RU exploits the civil unrest in Kharkiv (1701Z) to insert sabotage groups (DRGs) into the city under the guise of protesters, aiming to seize administrative buildings or key heat distribution nodes.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
- [HIGH] Technical verification of Starlink's 90 km/h cutoff—determine if this is a firmware update/restriction or an inherent hardware limitation.
- [HIGH] Real-time monitoring of civil unrest in Kharkiv; identify if protests are organic or being steered by RU intelligence assets.
- [MEDIUM] Confirmation of "Valkyrie" unit strength near Orikhiv—determine if this is a localized raid or a new offensive vector.
- [LOW] Verify the validity of the US-Cuba emergency reports to determine if this is a coordinated RU/Strelkov disinformation campaign.
//REPORT ENDS//
