Situation Update (1500Z 29 JAN 2026)
Key updates since last sitrep
- DIPLOMATIC RIGIDITY (1451Z, ЦАПЛІЄНКО, HIGH): Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov reiterated that any meeting between Putin and President Zelensky must occur in Moscow, explicitly rejecting all alternative venues. This reinforces the "Negotiation by Fire" assessment and signals a total lack of interest in the Abu Dhabi format.
- OPERATIONAL DEFENSE: KOSTYANTYNIVKA AXIS (1438Z, Operatyvnyi ZSU, HIGH): The UAF "Phoenix" (ФЕНIКС) UAV unit is actively conducting precision strikes against Russian elements attempting to penetrate Kostyantynivka. This confirms Russian ground intent toward this logistical hub is active and kinetic.
- DECEPTION SUCCESS: F-16 DECOYS (1438Z, TASS, MEDIUM): Russian "Rubicon" operators claim to have destroyed an F-16 at a training site in Kirovohrad Oblast. However, the report specifies it was a "layout" (dummy/mockup). This confirms UAF deception measures (passive defense) are successfully drawing Russian precision munitions and ISR focus.
- STRATEGIC ESCALATION: IRAN STRIKE IMMINENT (1435Z, Voenkor Kotenok, LOW): Reports citing the New York Times suggest a kinetic strike against Iran is likely within the next 48 hours. UNCONFIRMED but highly significant as it may trigger a reallocation of Western ISR and AD assets away from Ukraine.
- INTERNAL RU SECURITY: MOD PURGE (1442Z, Colonelcassad, HIGH): The FSB arrested Vladimir Nikitin, head of a Russian MoD representative office in St. Petersburg, for large-scale bribery. This indicates ongoing internal friction and "cleansing" within the Russian defense bureaucracy.
- FINANCIAL ISOLATION: EU BLACKLIST (1444Z, TASS, HIGH): The EU has officially added the Russian Federation to its anti-money laundering blacklist, effective immediately, further complicating Russia's ability to bypass sanctions via shadow banking.
Operational picture (by sector)
Eastern Sector (Donbas/Slovyansk-Kramatorsk):
The threat to Kostyantynivka is the primary tactical concern. UAF UAV units are the main line of defense preventing Russian units from establishing a foothold (1438Z). The "Phoenix" unit's engagement indicates that Russian reconnaissance-in-force or small-unit infiltration is constant. The status of the rumored 80,000-man reserve near Slovyansk remains UNCONFIRMED, but the intensity of drone strikes suggests a shaping operation for a larger push.
Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kryvyi Rih):
Russia has expanded its target set to residential infrastructure in Kryvyi Rih via drone strikes (1435Z). This aligns with the previous assessment of pressure on civilian centers during peak frost ("Orange Level").
Rear Areas (Kirovohrad):
Russian forces are actively hunting F-16 airframes using specialized units like "Rubicon" (1438Z). The fact that Russia is expending munitions on training mockups suggests a gap in their high-resolution BDA (Battle Damage Assessment) or a desperate need for "victories" against high-value Western assets.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
- Tactical Course of Action: Russia is utilizing "Unmanned Systems Troops" (confirmed formalized in Lipetsk, 1430Z previous sitrep) and "Rubicon" operators to conduct deep-strike missions against UAF aviation infrastructure.
- Internal Dissent: Ramzan Kadyrov has publicly broken with the "negotiation" narrative, demanding the "SVO be brought to an end" and opposing any talks (1451Z). This suggests a factional divide in the Kremlin between the diplomatic "negotiation by fire" camp and the "total war" hardliners.
- Consolidation of Assets: The acquisition of Domodedovo Airport by Sheremetyevo (1446Z) for 66bn RUB suggests a state-driven consolidation of critical infrastructure, likely to streamline military logistics and internal security controls.
Friendly activity (UAF)
- Active Defense: UAF drone pilots (Phoenix unit) are effectively managing the perimeter of Kostyantynivka, suggesting a high level of situational awareness despite Russian EW efforts.
- Strategic Deception: The use of F-16 mockups in Kirovohrad (1438Z) has successfully distracted Russian strike assets. This remains a critical tool for preserving actual airframe readiness as F-16s integrate into the theater.
- Diplomatic Posture: President Zelensky’s proposal for a joint European Army was publicly rejected by Estonia (1457Z), indicating friction in long-term European defense integration despite immediate tactical support.
Information environment / disinformation
- Russian Internal Hardening: The ROC’s proposal to restrict abortions without spousal consent (1435Z) and the abandonment of the Bologna Process (1407Z previous) reflect a shift toward ultra-conservative, isolationist domestic policy to sustain a long-term war footing.
- Nuclear Narrative: Ukrainian channels are highlighting German reports of a 3-year timeline for Berlin to develop a nuclear deterrent (1440Z). This is likely intended to pressure Western allies for faster conventional aid or to signal the shifting security architecture of Europe.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
- Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Continued drone strikes on Kryvyi Rih and logistical corridors to Kostyantynivka. Russian ISR will likely focus on Kirovohrad and other airfields to confirm the validity of their "F-16 kills."
- Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): If the 48-hour window for an Iran strike (1435Z) is accurate, Russia may launch a massive missile wave against the Ukrainian power grid to exploit the temporary diversion of Western intelligence/military attention.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
- [URGENT] BDA on the Kryvyi Rih residential strikes; assess if energy infrastructure was the intended target.
- [HIGH] Corroborate NYT report regarding Iran; determine the potential impact on US "Global Hawk" sorties in the Black Sea.
- [MEDIUM] Monitor Kadyrov’s rhetoric for signs of a wider split with the MoD/Kremlin regarding the Feb 1 Abu Dhabi talks.
//REPORT ENDS//
