Situation Report

Situation Update (1432Z 29 JAN 2026)

Key updates since last sitrep

• DIPLOMATIC HARDLINE: "MOSCOW OR NOTHING" (1414Z, ЦАПЛІЄНКО, HIGH): Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated Putin will only meet President Zelensky in Moscow, explicitly rejecting all other venues. This contradicts earlier rumors of an "energy truce" at the Feb 1 Abu Dhabi talks.
• TACTICAL AVIATION: KAB STRIKES IN ZAPORIZHZHIA (1416Z, UA Air Force, HIGH): Confirmed launches of Guided Aerial Bombs (KAB) against targets in the Zaporizhzhia region.
• LOGISTICS INTERDICTION: "ROAD OF DEATH" TO KOSTYANTYNIVKA (1422Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): Russian drone activity has intensified along supply lines in the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration, specifically targeting UAF logistics heading toward Kostyantynivka.
• UAF COUNTER-STRIKE: LYMAN SECTOR (1430Z, ЦАПЛІЄНКО, MEDIUM): The 63rd Brigade reportedly eliminated approximately 20 Russian personnel near Lyman. Video evidence supports a successful engagement of a concentrated Russian force in a prominent structure (1408Z, Operatyvnyi ZSU).
• FORCE GENERATION: RU UNMANNED SYSTEMS BRANCH (1430Z, Igor Artamonov, HIGH): Official recruitment has begun in Lipetsk Oblast for the "Unmanned Systems Troops" (Войска беспилотных систем), indicating the formalization of drone units into a specialized service branch.
• GLOBAL ESCALATION: PERSIAN GULF BUILDUP (1426Z, Operation Z/Axios, MEDIUM): Reports indicate the US is finalizing a surge of naval and air assets (USS Abraham Lincoln CSG) to the Persian Gulf, potentially distracting Western ISR and logistics from the Ukrainian theater.

Operational picture (by sector)

Eastern Sector (Donbas/Slovyansk-Kramatorsk): The operational focus has shifted to logistical strangulation. Russian "drone hunting" (1422Z) is reaching critical levels on the Kostyantynivka-Slovyansk axes. UAF forces achieved a tactical success near Lyman, neutralizing a platoon-sized element (1430Z). However, the reported 80,000-man reserve (referenced in <previous_daily_report>) remains an UNCONFIRMED but high-priority threat as Russian air defense activity (12th AA Regiment) remains elevated.

Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Huliaipole): The Hrychur River (Гайчур) area is currently a kinetic hotspot (1418Z). Russia is utilizing KAB strikes (1416Z) to soften defensive positions, likely to compensate for the high risk to ground assets in the open terrain of this sector. The introduction of fiber-optic drones (referenced in <previous_daily_report>) continues to challenge UAF EW dominance in the Huliaipole area.

Northern Sector (Sumy/Kharkiv): No significant ground gains. Activity is dominated by the "Orange Level" frost (1350Z) and government warnings of an imminent Russian "Deep Freeze Strike" targeting infrastructure (1420Z).

Enemy activity / threat assessment

• Tactical Shift: Russia is moving away from purely opportunistic drone use toward organized, specialized "Unmanned Systems Troops" (1430Z). This suggests a transition to a more structured, doctrine-driven approach to drone warfare.
• Sustainment: Internal Russian logistics show signs of strain, evidenced by continued crowdfunding for basic tactical mobility (UAZ pickups/quad bikes) for the "Vostok" group (1404Z).
• Course of Action (COA): Russia is likely executing a "Negotiation by Fire" strategy. By rejecting all neutral venues for talks (1414Z) and simultaneously intensifying KAB and drone strikes, Moscow aims to force a Ukrainian capitulation or a highly unfavorable "Moscow-dictated" summit.

Friendly activity (UAF)

• Precision Attrition: UAF continues to demonstrate high-level ISR capabilities, identifying and striking Russian personnel clusters in buildings before they can deploy for assaults (1408Z).
• Civil Defense: Ministerial-level coordination (DSNS, MOD) is underway to prepare for infrastructure strikes during the peak frost (1420Z).
• Legal/Internal: Ongoing anti-corruption and ecological enforcement in rear areas (Prykarpattia/Poltava) indicates that the state apparatus remains functional despite the front-line pressure (1401Z, 1430Z).

Information environment / disinformation

• The "Moscow Invitation" Trap: The pivot to demanding a meeting in Moscow is a clear attempt to delegitimize the Abu Dhabi process and frame Ukraine as the party avoiding peace.
• Internal Russian Controls: The move to abandon the Bologna Process (1407Z) and return to a Soviet-style education model, combined with exchange rate manipulation (USD < 75 RUB, 1405Z), suggests the Kremlin is hardening the domestic environment for a long-term isolationist war posture.

Outlook (next 6-12h)

• Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): Increased use of KABs in the Zaporizhzhia sector and continued drone harassment of the Kostyantynivka supply route. Expect a spike in missile/drone probes against the energy grid as temperatures drop further.
• Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): A massive, coordinated missile strike on multiple regional grid nodes during the "Orange Level" frost, timed to coincide with a ground push in the Serebryanske Forest/Lyman direction to exploit UAF logistical delays.

Intelligence gaps & collection requirements

1. [URGENT] Verify the exact location and readiness of the rumored 80k reserve near Slovyansk; confirm if they are integrating the new "Unmanned Systems Troops."
2. [HIGH] Assess the operational status of UAF EW units in the Hrychur River area to counter the KAB and fiber-optic drone threat.
3. [MEDIUM] Determine if the US Persian Gulf buildup is diverting any specific intelligence assets (RQ-4 Global Hawk, etc.) away from the Black Sea/Ukraine theater.

//REPORT ENDS//