Situation Update (2332Z 28 JAN 2026)
Key updates since last sitrep
- UAV THREAT TO KIROVOHRAD OBLAST (2310Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): Shahed-type UAVs detected in the vicinity of Oleksandriya, moving on a westward/southwestward vector.
- EU ACCESSION DISINFORMATION (2322Z, RBK-UA, MEDIUM): Reports of German opposition leader Friedrich Merz’s statements regarding Ukraine’s EU accession (deeming entry by 2027 "impossible") are being misattributed to the German Chancellor in various information channels to exacerbate perceived friction between Kyiv and Berlin.
- GEOPOLITICAL ENERGY SHIFT (2318Z, TASS/Reuters, MEDIUM): The United States has reportedly returned a seized tanker to Venezuela, signaling a potential shift in energy diplomacy that may impact global oil markets and secondary Russian sanctions bypass routes.
- INTENSIFIED INFRASTRUCTURE PROBING (2310Z, Analytical Judgment, MEDIUM): The vector toward Oleksandriya (a key rail and logistics junction) suggests the current drone wave is transitioning from broad "energy harassment" to specific interdiction of the internal supply lines supporting the Donbas front.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The aerial engagement remains dynamic and multi-vector. Following the deep penetration into Western Ukraine (Rivne/Volyn) reported at 2251Z, the enemy has opened/maintained a secondary axis in Central Ukraine (Kirovohrad).
Battlefield Geometry:
- Central Sector: The threat to Oleksandriya is significant. This hub serves as a critical transshipment point for Western aid moving from the Polish border toward the Pokrovsk and Donbas axes.
- Western Sector: Air defense assets in Volyn and Rivne remain on high alert following the 2251Z penetration. No confirmed kinetic impacts have been reported in the last 40 minutes, suggesting intercepts or ongoing low-altitude "nap-of-the-earth" flight paths by UAVs.
Environmental Factors:
- Severe winter temperatures continue to stress the energy grid. Targeted strikes near Oleksandriya or in the Western corridors increase the risk of localized grid collapses similar to the current situation in Kyiv (737 buildings without heat).
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
Aviation & Strike Assets:
- UAV Tactics: The RF continues a "saturation and bypass" strategy. By simultaneously threatening the Western (Volyn) and Central (Kirovohrad) regions, they are forcing the UAF to disperse Mobile Fire Groups (MFGs) and high-end AD assets (Patriot/SAMP-T).
- VKS Readiness: While no new high-performance aircraft activity has been reported in the last hour, the previous report of Su-35S night CAP (2235Z) suggests the RF is maintaining air superiority over the "Center" grouping to protect ground-based logistics.
Logistics & Sustainment:
- The reported return of a tanker to Venezuela (2318Z) indicates a complex diplomatic layer. If the US is easing pressure on Venezuela, it may be an attempt to lower oil prices, indirectly squeezing the RF’s war chest. However, in the short term, the RF remains focused on "negotiation by fire."
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (UAF)
Posture & Readiness:
- Air Defense: UAF Air Force continues to provide real-time tracking (2310Z). The focus is currently on the Kirovohrad-Oleksandriya corridor.
- Information Defense: Ukrainian official media (RBK-UA) is actively debunking misattributed quotes from German politicians to preserve domestic morale and international relations.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)
- Hybrid Operations: The combination of inflammatory social media content regarding public figures (Alex Parker, 2303Z) and the misattribution of German political statements (2322Z) indicates a synchronized hybrid effort to sow internal discord and doubt regarding Western longevity.
- Sentiment: There is a concerted effort by Russian-aligned actors to portray Ukrainian EU integration as a failed prospect, likely intended to weaken civilian resolve during the current "energy freeze" in Kyiv.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA):
- The Shahed wave in Kirovohrad will attempt to strike rail infrastructure in Oleksandriya within the next 30-60 minutes. Simultaneously, UAVs in the West will continue to loiter to exhaust AD ammunition before a possible second wave of Kalibr cruise missiles from the Black Sea.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA):
- The RF utilizes the confusion from the multi-vector UAV attack and the Su-35S CAP to launch a coordinated strike on the Oskil River crossings or the Kramatorsk rail hub, coinciding with the rumored 80k-man reserve push on Slovyansk.
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
- [URGENT] SIGINT/IMINT confirmation of the 80,000-man reserve buildup in the Serebryanske Forest area.
- [HIGH] Assessment of whether the Su-34 crash (2235Z) has led to a stand-down of VKS tactical bombing sorties or if a "surge" is being prepared in retaliation.
- [MEDIUM] Monitoring of German-Ukrainian diplomatic channels for fallout from the Merz statement misattribution.
//REPORT ENDS//
