Situation Update (2302Z 28 JAN 2026)
Key updates since last sitrep
- DEEP WESTERN UAV PENETRATION (2251Z, UAF Air Force, HIGH): Shahed-type UAVs have transited Rivne Oblast and are currently on a vector toward Volyn Oblast. This represents a significant westward expansion of the current strike wave.
- VKS ASSET LOSS: SU-34 CRASH (2235Z, Voenkor Kotenok, MEDIUM): Reports indicate a Russian Su-34 fighter-bomber has crashed within the "SMO zone," resulting in the death of the crew. Cause of crash (combat vs. technical) is currently unspecified.
- INCREASED NIGHT SORTIES: SU-35S OPERATIONS (2235Z, Colonelcassad, HIGH): Russian Su-35S multirole fighters are confirmed conducting night combat air patrols (CAP) in support of the "Center" grouping of forces.
- NATIONWIDE UAV THREAT (2258Z, RBK-UA, HIGH): Corroborated reports confirm a large-scale, multi-vector drone attack affecting multiple regions, with a specific emphasis on Western Ukraine corridors.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The aerial domain has escalated significantly in complexity and geographic scope. The focus has shifted from the Central/Kremenchuk axis (identified in the 2232Z report) to a deep penetration of Western Ukraine (Rivne and Volyn). This suggests an attempt to interdict logistics or strike airfields in the far west.
Battlefield Geometry:
- Western Sector: New threat axis established: Rivne -> Volyn. This corridor is critical for Western military aid transit and energy synchronization with the EU grid.
- Central/Eastern Sector: Su-35S activity is intensifying over the "Center" grouping's Area of Operations (AOO), likely providing top-cover for ground operations or escorting remaining strike packages.
Environmental Factors:
- Nighttime operations are now the primary mode of engagement. High-performance aircraft (Su-35S) are utilizing night-vision and advanced sensors to maintain persistence despite severe winter conditions.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)
Aviation & Strike Assets:
- VKS Attrition: The loss of a Su-34 (2235Z) is a notable blow to the RF’s tactical bombing capability, specifically their ability to deliver UMPK (glide bombs). If confirmed as a shoot-down, it indicates high UAF AD efficacy even during saturation attacks.
- Su-35S Employment: The deployment of Su-35S for night duty (2235Z) suggests the RF is hardening its C2 and air superiority over the "Center" grouping, possibly to prevent UAF counter-UAV or counter-battery aviation from operating.
- UAV Pathfinding: The movement toward Volyn (2251Z) indicates a sophisticated "long-path" routing intended to bypass primary AD clusters in Central Ukraine by hugging the northern border before turning south/west.
Logistics & Sustainment:
- No new updates on the 80k-man reserve (Slovyansk) or rail strikes (Kramatorsk) since the daily report, but the Su-35S activity over the "Center" sector supports the assessment of an impending localized offensive.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (UAF)
Posture & Readiness:
- Air Defense (AD): Mobile Fire Groups (MFGs) in Rivne and Volyn are now active. The depth of the current UAV penetration is testing the reaction time of secondary and tertiary AD lines.
- Electronic Warfare (EW): The reported use of fiber-optic FPVs (from previous daily report) remains a critical tactical challenge in the Huliaipole sector, though not directly mentioned in the latest 30-minute window.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT
- Russian Loss Management: Pro-Russian sources (Kotenok) were quick to report the Su-34 loss, possibly to control the narrative before UAF footage emerges.
- Operational Security (OPSEC): UAF official channels continue to provide timely vector updates (Rivne/Volyn) to ensure civilian safety while maintaining operational silence on specific intercept locations.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
- Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): UAVs will target energy or logistics infrastructure in Volyn (Lutsk vicinity) between 0000Z and 0130Z. Concurrently, Su-35S will maintain CAP to suppress UAF tactical aviation in the Donbas.
- Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): The Su-34 loss triggers an immediate retaliatory "surge" strike. Using the current Shahed wave as a "shield" to deplete AD, the RF launches a concentrated cruise missile strike against Western Ukrainian rail hubs within the next 4 hours to sever the main supply line from Poland.
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
- [URGENT] Confirmation of the Su-34 crash location and cause (AD strike vs. mechanical).
- [HIGH] Assessment of damage to the Kremenchuk axis (from 2228Z threat) to determine if that wave was a diversion for the Volyn penetration.
- [MEDIUM] Identification of specific Su-35S ordnance loads in the "Center" sector to determine if they are configured for SEAD (anti-radar) or purely Air-to-Air.
//REPORT ENDS//
