AIR COMBAT: RUSSIAN Su-34 DOWNED (1923Z-1925Z, Sternenko/Fighterbomber/Tsaplienko, HIGH): Multiple sources, including those affiliated with the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS), confirm the loss of a Russian Su-34 strike aircraft. Details on the location and method of intercept remain under clarification.
MASS STRIKE ALERT: IMMINENT THREAT CONFIRMED (1911Z-1924Z, Zelensky/Tsaplienko/Operatsiya Z, HIGH): President Zelensky and GUR (Military Intelligence) have verified that Russian forces are in the final stages of preparation for a large-scale combined missile and UAV strike.
TACTICAL INNOVATION: REMOTE MINING REINFORCED (1921Z, Sternenko, HIGH): Visual evidence confirmed four Shahed-type UAVs were equipped with PTM-3 anti-tank mines. This confirms the previously assessed shift toward interdiction of Ukrainian maneuver and logistics via expendable aerial platforms.
BATTLE DAMAGE ASSESSMENT (BDA): KHARKIV RAIL STRIKE (1924Z, RBK-Ukraine, HIGH): The death toll from the Russian strike on the Kharkiv railway infrastructure has risen to six. This highlights a deliberate Russian effort to decapitate regional logistics hubs.
DIPLOMATIC FRICTION: SECURITY GUARANTEES REJECTED (1906Z, Alex Parker/Rubio, MEDIUM): US Secretary of State Marco Rubio reports that Russia has not agreed to the security guarantees proposed by the US and EU, contradicting Russian narratives of a "single territorial obstacle" remaining.
INTERNAL SABOTAGE: DONBAS VEHICLE TARGETING (1917Z, Colonelcassad, UNCONFIRMED/LOW): Russian sources claim local residents in the Donbas are sabotaging UAF vehicles (tire slashing). This is likely a Russian information operation (IO) intended to suggest local hostility toward the UAF.
Operational picture (by sector)
Kupyansk/Oskil Sector:
No new terrain updates to confirm the Russian claim of Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi’s capture. The situation remains critical as Russia attempts to disrupt rail-fed logistics. The increase in casualties at the Kharkiv rail hub (1924Z) directly impacts the sustainment of the Oskil defensive line.
Pokrovsk Sector:
Active Defense: The 3rd Brigade of Operational Assignment ("Spartan") successfully conducted a counter-assault (1911Z). Footagae indicates Russian infantry are resorting to desperate measures (throwing small arms at FPV drones), suggesting a lack of organic EW protection at the tactical level for recent assault groups.
Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia):
Zaporizhzhia District: A civilian injury (63-year-old male) reported following a Russian strike (1909Z). Continued harassment of rear areas remains consistent with the "Negotiation by Fire" strategy.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Aviation Status: The loss of an Su-34 (1925Z) represents a significant blow to Russian precision-strike capabilities, particularly if the airframe was conducting glide-bomb operations. This may temporarily degrade Russian CAS (Close Air Support) in the immediate sector of the loss.
Course of Action (COA): Russia is doubling down on "Humanitarian Blackmail." By combining remote mining (Shahed/PTM-3) with a pending mass strike, they aim to paralyze Ukrainian emergency services during a period of peak energy demand and cold weather.
Internal Russian Incentives: Reports of confiscating civilian property (e.g., Klishina’s apartment) to provide to military personnel (1903Z) indicate a continued "war-first" economic and social policy, likely to sustain recruitment and veteran loyalty despite high casualty rates.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Governance & Resilience:
Energoatom: A significant overhaul of the Supervisory Board (1909Z) involving international experts (Rumina Velshi, et al.) aims to stabilize the nuclear energy sector and improve financial/risk management ahead of the anticipated strikes.
Civilian Resilience: The government has launched a 300,000 UAH grant program for residential buildings to install autonomous power (1904Z), a proactive measure to mitigate the impact of strikes on the energy grid.
Counter-FPV Operations: UAF tactical units (specifically "Spartan" Bde) continue to demonstrate high proficiency in FPV employment, effectively neutralizing Russian infantry even when they attempt unorthodox countermeasures.
Information environment / disinformation
Russian IO: Russian channels are pushing a "New Normal" narrative (1927Z), telling Ukrainians that living without heat and water is permanent. This is a clear attempt to induce psychological exhaustion.
Manipulation of Diplomacy: Russian milbloggers are amplifying Rubio’s comments to frame the US/EU as being in disagreement with Ukrainian goals, while simultaneously downplaying their own rejection of security guarantees.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): Arrival of a combined Shahed/missile wave targeting energy infrastructure in Kyiv and Dnipro, and rail logistics in the East. Expect Shaheds to prioritize the deployment of PTM-3 mines on primary emergency routes near targeted sites.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): A multi-axis missile strike that successfully targets the Kyiv thermal grid and major Energoatom distribution nodes simultaneously, leading to a cascaded regional grid failure during the forecasted cold snap.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[URGENT] Geo-location and verification of the Su-34 crash site to determine the effective range of UAF air defense assets used.
[HIGH] Tracking of Russian 12th Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment movements to identify launch corridors for the expected missile wave.
[MEDIUM] Confirmation of the current status of Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi railway station—specifically, whether Russian forces have established physical control or merely fire control.
