IMMINENT THREAT: PREPARATION FOR MASS STRIKE (1848Z-1854Z, Zelensky/KMVA/RBK-Ukraine, HIGH): President Zelensky issued an urgent warning based on intelligence reports that Russia is preparing for a new, large-scale coordinated strike. This is assessed as a move to discredit diplomatic talks and leverage the current heating crisis in Kyiv.
DIPLOMATIC RESTRUCTURING: ABU DHABI TALKS NOW BILATERAL (1838Z-1844Z, OperativnoZSU/Rubio/Operatsiya Z, HIGH): US Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed that the Feb 1 talks will be strictly bilateral (Ukraine-Russia). US representatives Witkoff and Kushner will not attend. Territorial questions remain the primary unresolved obstacle.
AERIAL WARFARE: SHAHED-DELIVERED MINE-LAYING (1901Z, Sternenko, HIGH): Tactical shift confirmed: Shahed-type UAVs intercepted near the front were found equipped with PTM-3 anti-tank mines. This indicates a transition from purely kinetic strikes to remote area-denial/interdiction operations.
TERRITORIAL CLAIM: KUPYANSK-VUZLOVYI (1837Z, Zvizdets Mangustu, LOW): Russian Chief of General Staff Gerasimov reportedly claimed the capture of Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi. This remains UNCONFIRMED and is likely premature or part of an information operation to coincide with diplomatic shifts.
REAR AREA SECURITY: FATAL STRIKE IN BELGOROD (1850Z, Dva Mayora, HIGH): The Governor of Belgorod confirmed a fatal drone attack within the region, indicating sustained Ukrainian deep-strike capability against Russian border logistics.
DEFENSE ECONOMICS (1900Z, DeepState/NSDC, HIGH): Official 2025 data confirms Ukraine directed over 3.8 trillion UAH (43% of GDP) toward security and defense, highlighting the total-war footing of the national economy.
Operational picture (by sector)
Kupyansk/Oskil Sector:
Russian claims regarding the seizure of Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi (1837Z) suggest an attempt to collapse the Oskil river defensive line. This follows reports of Russian pressure "behind the Oskil" in previous cycles. Priority Intelligence Requirement (PIR): Confirmation of UAF control over the Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi railway junction.
Donbas Sector:
Selidove: Russian sources (WarGonzo, 1833Z) report on "frontline logistics of life," likely indicating stabilization or consolidation of Russian logistics in the Selidove area to support further westward pushes.
Internal Russian Status: Reports of a whistleblower from a Russian unit (Mobilization News, 1852Z) claim over 50% of the unit was "liquidated" (extrajudicially) by their own commanders. This suggests severe breakdown in C2 or disciplinary cohesion in specific Donbas-theater units.
Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Dnipro):
Aerial Alert: A persistent UAV threat continues toward Dnipro (Air Force, 1852Z) despite an air alert clearance in Zaporizhzhia (1853Z).
Stepnohirsk: Remains a point of active engagement (baseline context), with no new terrain updates in this period.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
Tactical Adaptation: The use of PTM-3 mines on Shaheds (1901Z) suggests a Russian attempt to mine MSRs (Main Supply Routes) and maneuver corridors behind Ukrainian lines using expendable platforms.
Strategic Intent: Russia is utilizing a "Negotiation by Fire" strategy. By preparing a mass strike while simultaneously narrowing the diplomatic field to bilateral talks (excluding US mediation), Moscow aims to force territorial concessions under the threat of a complete humanitarian collapse (energy/heating).
Friendly activity (UAF)
Defensive Posture: UAF intelligence (GUR) is actively tracking missile/UAV reload cycles to provide early warning for the anticipated mass strike.
Information Operations: High-level officials are framing the 43% GDP defense expenditure (1900Z) to international partners as proof of Ukrainian commitment and the necessity for continued Western financial/military parity.
Information environment / disinformation
NATO Narrative: Russian milbloggers and state media are amplifying Marco Rubio's call to "rethink" NATO (1843Z) to suggest a fracturing of the Alliance and a US pivot away from European security.
Demoralization Campaign: Russian channels (Alex Parker, 1838Z) are distorting statements from Ukrainian infrastructure advisors to claim that "living without light, heat, and water" is the "new permanent reality" for generations. This targets civilian morale ahead of the forecasted cold snap.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
MLCOA (Most Likely): Coordinated Shahed/Missile strikes targeting the Dnipro and Kyiv regions within the next 12 hours. Shaheds will likely be used in a mixed role: some as kinetic warheads and others as PTM-3 mine-layers to disrupt emergency response and repair movements.
MDCOA (Most Dangerous): A breakthrough in the Kupyansk sector (if Gerasimov's claim of Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi capture is even partially true) combined with a mass strike that permanently disables the Kyiv thermal grid during the 48-hour cold snap.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[URGENT] Combat identification/verification of the frontline status at Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi.
[HIGH] Technical analysis of Shahed-mounted PTM-3 release mechanisms to develop EW/kinetic countermeasures.
[MEDIUM] Identification of the specific Russian unit mentioned in whistleblower reports regarding internal executions (potential indicator of low combat readiness/high friction).
