Situation Update (1832Z 28 JAN 2026)
Key updates since last sitrep
- DIPLOMATIC SHIFT: US WITHDRAWAL FROM ABU DHABI (1824Z-1831Z, TASS/Tsaplienko, HIGH): US Senator Marco Rubio confirmed that Steven Witkoff and Jared Kushner will not participate in the February 1 trilateral talks. This signifies a major shift in the mediation structure, leaving Ukraine and Russia to engage without direct US representation.
- MILITARY AID: FRENCH COMMITMENT (1806Z-1816Z, KMVA/Zelensky/Sternenko, HIGH): Following a call with President Macron, Ukraine is confirmed to receive immediate deliveries of generators to mitigate the heating crisis. Furthermore, France pledged additional aircraft (likely Mirage 2000-5), air defense missiles, and aerial bombs throughout 2026.
- CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE: KYIV HEATING PERSISTENCE (1802Z-1804Z, Klitschko/OperativnoZSU, HIGH): 639 high-rise buildings remain without heat. While slightly lower than the 737 reported earlier, the situation remains critical as a "sharp cooling" (severe cold snap) is forecasted for the next 48 hours (1821Z, RBC-Ukraine).
- AERIAL THREAT: SHAHED TRANSIT (1811Z, AFU Air Force, MEDIUM): Persistent Shahed-type UAV movement detected heading toward Pavlohrad (Dnipro) and Zaporizhzhia, likely targeting logistical hubs or energy infrastructure.
- SBU OPERATIONAL PLANNING (1819Z-1825Z, Zelensky/RBC-Ukraine, MEDIUM): President Zelensky met with SBU leadership to review ongoing and future "special operations" intended to change the course of the war.
- TACTICAL COMBAT: STEPNOHIRSK ENGAGEMENT (1830Z, Slivochny Kapriz, MEDIUM): Reports of active kinetic engagements in Stepnohirsk (Zaporizhzhia sector). [UNCONFIRMED] Claims of Russian ground assault on agricultural structures are supported by low-confidence visual evidence.
Operational picture (by sector)
Northern Sector (Kyiv/Chernihiv/Sumy):
- Kyiv: Focus remains on domestic resilience. The thermal grid failure is being countered by French-supplied generators. A reported protest by residents over heating/electricity (1811Z, TASS) is currently UNCONFIRMED by independent or pro-Ukrainian sources and is assessed as a potential Russian psychological operation.
- Lipetsk/Border: A temporary "missile danger" was declared and subsequently lifted (1813Z-1825Z), indicating high Russian air defense sensitivity or Ukrainian drone probing.
Kupyansk/Oskil Sector:
- Russian sources (Rybar, 1802Z) report on the situation "behind the Oskil," suggesting continued Russian pressure to establish a more permanent foothold on the western bank or consolidate the current buffer.
Donbas Sector:
- Kramatorsk/Slovyansk: No confirmation on the 80k-man reserve. Logistics remains under pressure following the previous strike on the Kramatorsk rail hub.
- Drone Warfare: Russian "Rubikon" UAV teams (MoD Russia, 1804Z) are reportedly conducting high-precision FPV strikes on Ukrainian defensive positions using thermal optics, indicating enhanced night-fighting capability.
Southern Sector (Zaporizhzhia/Kherson):
- Stepnohirsk: Visual evidence suggests localized Russian advances toward agricultural infrastructure (1830Z). This area is a critical defensive screen for the Zaporizhzhia city approaches.
- Pavlohrad: Currently under UAV threat (Shahed transit), likely intended to disrupt the rail-to-road logistics flow from the central regions to the Donbas front.
Enemy activity / threat assessment
- Technological Adaptation: Russian forces are testing "improvised" Remote Weapon Stations (RWS) and technical turrets (Dva Mayora, 1812Z), suggesting a push for low-cost, automated suppressive fire systems to counter Ukrainian FPV dominance.
- Chinese Strategic Support: The debut of the Chinese PL-17 very-long-range air-to-air missile (1807Z) is noted; while not currently in theatre, its presence in the global information space signals potential future escalation in aviation technology transfers to Russia.
- Hybrid Tactics: Russia continues to amplify civilian distress in Kyiv (protest claims) to foster internal instability and pressure the Ukrainian government before the Abu Dhabi talks.
Friendly activity (UAF)
- Infrastructure Mitigation: Sourcing of French generators is the primary non-kinetic priority to prevent a localized humanitarian collapse in Kyiv.
- Strategic Deep Strikes: Zelensky's briefing on SBU operations (1819Z) suggests that Ukraine maintains a proactive posture regarding high-value targets in the Russian rear and occupied territories.
- Information Operations: Successful documentation of "Tik-Tok troops" (Chechen/Akhmat units) in drone footage (Butusov, 1826Z) is being used to degrade Russian domestic morale and military credibility.
Information environment / disinformation
- Abu Dhabi Narrative: Russian media (TASS) and some Western commentators are framing the US absence from the Feb 1 talks as a "betrayal" or a sign that the Trump administration (via surrogates) is distancing itself from the current Ukrainian administration's goals.
- US-Iran Escalation: Russian milbloggers (Operatsiya Z, 1815Z) are pushing a narrative of 40,000 US troops preparing for a strike on Iran. This is assessed as HIGH-STAKES DISINFORMATION designed to distract from the Ukraine theater and suggest a wider global conflict is imminent.
- Intra-Unit Violence Claims: Russian reports of UAF personnel killing "brothers-in-arms" who tried to surrender (1803Z, Colonelcassad) are LOW CONFIDENCE and consistent with standard Russian "anti-surrender" psychological warfare.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
- MLCOA: Russian forces will continue Shahed strikes on Pavlohrad and Zaporizhzhia to fix Ukrainian air defense assets away from Kyiv.
- MDCOA: A coordinated missile strike targeting the already weakened Kyiv heating grid as the forecasted "sharp cooling" (1821Z) begins, aiming to trigger a mass civilian exodus and administrative panic.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
- [CRITICAL] Confirmation of US official or unofficial observer status for the Abu Dhabi talks following Rubio's "no participation" statement.
- [HIGH] Visual confirmation of Russian gains in the Stepnohirsk agricultural zone.
- [MEDIUM] Assessment of whether the "Rubikon" UAV units are using new AI-assisted target acquisition or if they are standard pilot-operated FPVs.
//REPORT ENDS//
