ZAPORIZHZHIA ALL CLEAR (0338Z, Zaporizhzhia OVA, HIGH): Air raid alerts have been lifted for the Zaporizhzhia region following the KAB and UAV threat reported at 0312Z.
NORTHERN UAV AXIS – CHERNIHIV (0339Z, UAF AF, HIGH): A new UAV incursion has been detected in Chernihiv Oblast, moving from the northeast toward Sedniv.
ALLEGED OPSEC BREACH – RU NAVAL INFANTRY (0355Z, Dva Mayora, LOW/UNCONFIRMED): Reports indicate a significant compromise of Russian digital mapping data via the "AlpineQuest" application. A commander (identified as Akhmedov) has reportedly been suspended following claims that Ukrainian forces accessed marine unit positions.
GEOPOLITICAL DISENGAGEMENT (0354Z, RBC-UA, HIGH): President Zelenskyy has issued a decree continuing Ukraine's legal withdrawal from the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), further codifying the shift toward Western integration.
COGNITIVE OP – EU MILITARY READINESS (0336Z, TASS, LOW): Russian state media is circulating narratives from defectors (ex-SBU Prozorov) claiming European Union armies are "unfit" for high-intensity warfare, likely aimed at undermining Western public support.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational tempo has shifted toward northern and western harassment after a concentrated strike period in the south.
Battlefield Geometry: The air threat landscape is fragmented. The termination of the Zaporizhzhia alert suggests RU tactical aviation has completed its current sortie cycle. However, the introduction of a UAV into Chernihiv (0339Z) expands the surveillance/strike envelope to the Northern Sector, forcing UAF to maintain a distributed air defense posture.
Weather/Environment: No significant changes reported; however, the use of digital mapping tools like AlpineQuest highlights the increasing reliance on—and vulnerability of—COTS (Commercial Off-The-Shelf) software in the winter environment where static positions are more easily identified.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (THREAT ASSESSMENT)
Cyber & Electronic Warfare: The reported "AlpineQuest" breach (0355Z) is critical. If confirmed, it suggests RU tactical units have been utilizing non-secure, third-party software for command and control (C2) and spatial awareness. The suspension of a commander (Akhmedov) indicates that the compromise may have led to kinetic losses or significant intelligence leakage.
UAV Courses of Action: The vector toward Sedniv (Chernihiv) is likely aimed at identifying UAF reserve positions or monitoring northern border fortifications. This follows the pattern of the "mapping runs" noted in previous reports over Kyiv.
Tactical Adaptation: The Russian military appears to be struggling with secure digital integration, relying on "modified" civilian apps that remain vulnerable to Ukrainian signals intelligence (SIGINT) and cyber exploitation.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (BLUE FORCE TRACKING)
Strategic Positioning: The legal exit from CIS (0354Z) signals a permanent shift in Ukrainian administrative and military doctrine, moving away from Soviet-legacy frameworks that formerly facilitated RU intelligence penetration.
Air Defense (AD): Mobile Fire Groups successfully transitioned from the Zaporizhzhia threat (0338Z) to monitor new incursions in Chernihiv and the ongoing wave in Volyn.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (COGNITIVE DOMAIN)
Disinformation: The narrative regarding "unfit" EU armies (0336Z) is a classic active measure. By using an ex-SBU source (Prozorov), RU seeks to add a "whistleblower" veneer to its efforts to demoralize Western allies.
Internal RU Morale: The commemoration of the Siege of Leningrad (0336Z) is being leveraged by RU mil-bloggers to reinforce "fortress" mentality and endurance amid reported OPSEC failures and leadership suspensions.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RU will continue low-density UAV incursions (Chernihiv/Volyn) over the next 6 hours to keep UAF air defenses active and fatigued. Focus will likely shift to internal "purges" within the RU Marine/Naval Infantry command structures to address the AlpineQuest security breach.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): Ukrainian SIGINT confirms the map leak is being exploited. RU command, realizing the breach, launches an immediate, non-precision "scorched earth" artillery or missile barrage on the compromised sectors to mask their retreat or repositioning, potentially striking civilian areas in the process.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Confirm the extent of the "AlpineQuest" data compromise. Assess if leaked data includes UAF positions identified by RU units or only RU unit locations.
[HIGH] Verify the status and location of the UAV entering Chernihiv (0339Z). Determine if it is a precursor to a larger "Geran" wave.
[MEDIUM] Monitor RU internal military communications for further leadership changes following the "Akhmedov" suspension.
[LOW] Track the specific legal articles of the CIS withdrawal for impact on cross-border logistics or intelligence-sharing agreements.
