KAB STRIKES – ZAPORIZHZHIA (0312Z, UAF AF, HIGH): Tactical aviation (VKS) has launched Guided Aerial Bombs (KAB) targeting the Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
WESTERN UAV AXIS – RIVNE/VOLYN (0314Z-0330Z, UAF AF, HIGH): A UAV wave has transited Rivne Oblast and entered Volyn airspace, moving toward Kovel and Kamin-Kashyrskyi.
ZAPORIZHZHIA CITY THREAT (0319Z, UAF AF, HIGH): A UAV is approaching Zaporizhzhia city from a southern vector, indicating a coordinated strike package with the KAB launches.
RU CIVIL AVIATION ISOLATION (0312Z, TASS, MEDIUM): Rosaviatsia confirms no foreign airlines have offered "wet leasing" (aircraft + crew) to Russia, highlighting the continued impact of Western sanctions on RU domestic logistics.
JUDICIAL ESCALATION (0306Z, TASS, MEDIUM): Russian authorities have hardened the sentence for writer Boris Akunin to a strict regime colony, signaling intensified domestic suppression of the "long war" opposition.
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW
The operational focus has shifted from the Dnipropetrovsk mapping phase (noted 0238Z) to active strike operations in the South and deep-penetration reconnaissance/harassment in Western Ukraine.
Battlefield Geometry: The conflict has expanded into a multi-axis aerial engagement. While the East remains the primary ground focus, the RU "City-Kill" doctrine is manifesting through KAB strikes in Zaporizhzhia and long-range UAV incursions toward the Polish border (Volyn).
Key Terrain: Kovel (Volyn) is a critical logistics and rail hub for Western aid. The movement of UAVs toward this sector (0330Z) suggests a shift in targeting toward the "Western Gate" of Ukrainian logistics.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (THREAT ASSESSMENT)
Aviation & Strike Assets: The use of KABs against Zaporizhzhia (0312Z) suggests RU VKS is exploiting gaps in medium-range Air Defense (AD). The simultaneous approach of a UAV from the South (0319Z) likely serves as an AD-distractor or real-time BDA (Battle Damage Assessment) platform for the KAB strikes.
UAV Courses of Action: The Rivne-to-Volyn vector (0330Z) is a significant westward extension of the drone campaign. This bypasses the heavily defended Kyiv corridor to threaten logistical nodes (Kovel) and potentially monitor cross-border movements.
Logistics & Sustainability: The admission by Rosaviatsia regarding the failure of "wet leasing" (0312Z) indicates that RU's internal transportation network is under increasing strain, as they are unable to supplement their aging fleet with foreign airframes.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (BLUE FORCE TRACKING)
Air Defense Posture: UAF AD is currently engaged in high-mobility operations across three distinct zones: the Zaporizhzhia tactical front, the Dnipropetrovsk logistical hub, and the Western (Volyn/Rivne) rear area.
Resource Constraints: The geographic spread of the current UAV wave (from Volyn in the West to Zaporizhzhia in the South) is designed to force the expenditure of interceptor missiles and "thin out" mobile fire groups.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (COGNITIVE DOMAIN)
Domestic Suppression: The judicial move against Boris Akunin (0306Z) is a clear signal to the Russian intelligentsia that the state is shifting to a "Strict Regime" domestic posture to ensure total alignment with the war effort.
Propaganda: Russian mil-bloggers (e.g., Colonelcassad, 0303Z) are attempting to humanize RU forces through "wildlife rescue" content, a common tactic to soften the domestic image of the military during high-intensity infrastructure strikes.
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): RU will continue the KAB/UAV pressure on Zaporizhzhia over the next 6 hours to degrade local C2 and energy infrastructure. The Volyn-bound UAV will likely conduct a mapping run of the Kovel rail junction before attempting a strike or being intercepted.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): The UAV transiting Volyn (0330Z) acts as a vanguard for a larger cruise missile strike launched from the Black Sea or Tu-95MS platforms, targeting Western logistical hubs while AD is focused on the KAB strikes in the South.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Determine if the UAV in Volyn is an ISR platform (mapping) or a strike variant (Shahed/Geran).
[HIGH] Monitor for RU VKS "A-50" or other ISR aircraft activity over the Sea of Azov to coordinate the Zaporizhzhia KAB strikes.
[MEDIUM] Assess the impact of KAB strikes on Zaporizhzhia's energy distribution network following the 0312Z launches.
[LOW] Monitor RU civil aviation for any "shadow" aircraft acquisitions that bypass the "wet leasing" failure.
