BALLISTIC THREAT – KYIV (2209Z-2212Z, Air Force/KMVA, HIGH): Active air alert in Kyiv city following the detected launch/readiness of ballistic missiles from the Kursk region (RU).
MULTI-VECTOR UAV OFFENSIVE – SOUTH (2207Z-2223Z, Air Force/Vanek, HIGH): A coordinated group of at least 8 Shahed-type UAVs ("mopeds") entered via the Black Sea, targeting the Sarata and Starokozache axis (Odesa) and Mykolaiv.
NORTHERN AIR INCURSION – CHERNIHIV (2222Z, Air Force, MEDIUM): A lone UAV is tracking toward Kulikivka from the north, suggesting persistent reconnaissance or harassment of the northern border.
RUSSIA-SYRIA DIPLOMATIC MOVEMENT (2209Z, Colonelcassad, LOW): Reports indicate Abu Mohammad al-Julani is traveling to Moscow for a meeting with Putin on Jan 28. (UNCONFIRMED)
INTERNAL RUSSIAN PURGE (2227Z, TASS, HIGH): Property seizure of State Duma Deputy Andrey Doroshenko and ex-deputy Anatoly Voronovsky indicates a tightening of internal discipline/financial control within the RU elite.
UGV DEPLOYMENT – "COURIER" (2222Z, Colonelcassad, MEDIUM): Mentions of the "Courier" ground drone system suggest RU is increasing the use of unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) in tactical roles.
Operational picture (by sector)
Kyiv Sector:
The sector is currently at peak alert. Following the thermal grid degradation reported in the previous sitrep (13°C indoor temperatures), the threat of ballistic missiles from Kursk suggests an intent to strike hardening points or repair hubs. This follows the "mapping run" identified earlier today, indicating high-precision targeting is likely.
Southern Sector (Odesa/Mykolaiv):
The maritime-launched UAV wave is focusing on the Sarata-Starokozache corridor. This area is critical for logistics near the Moldovan/Romanian border. The movement toward Mykolaiv from the south suggests RU is attempting to saturate air defenses across the entire southern littoral to mask a specific high-value strike.
Northern Sector (Chernihiv):
The appearance of a UAV over Kulikivka indicates RU is maintaining a "distributed threat" model, forcing UA to keep mobile fire groups (MFGs) stationed away from the main thermal infrastructure hubs in the center.
Enemy analysis (Threat assessment)
Ballistic Course of Action: The use of the Kursk launch sites for ballistic missiles targeting Kyiv fits the pattern of "high-speed, low-warning" strikes. This is likely intended to circumvent the point defenses that successfully intercepted slower UAVs earlier.
Technical Adaptation: The mention of the "Courier" UGV (2222Z) aligns with recent RU efforts to automate frontline logistics or assault support, likely to mitigate high personnel attrition rates.
Logistics & Environment: Heavy snowfall in the Moscow region (2214Z) may slow RU aerial logistics and ground-based resupply to the Kursk launch sites over the next 48 hours, though it will not immediately impact pre-positioned missile batteries.
Friendly activity (UAF)
Air Defense Posture: UA Air Force and KMVA have synchronized alerts effectively (2210Z). MFGs are actively tracking the Odesa wave.
Intel Exploitation: UA units (Chef Hayabusa, 2213Z) are reportedly utilizing RU's own tactical reports and maps leaked or captured to refine their own targeting, suggesting a high level of situational awareness at the tactical drone pilot level.
Information environment (Cognitive domain)
Internal RU Discipline: The TASS report on asset seizures (2227Z) functions as a signal to RU officials to maintain absolute loyalty amidst the "long war" footing.
External Power Projection: The Julani visit narrative (2209Z) is likely being floated to demonstrate Russia's continued role as a regional power-broker in the Middle East, potentially to distract from the high-attrition warfare in Ukraine.
Outlook (next 6-12h)
Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA): A combined ballistic and UAV strike on Kyiv within the next 2 hours to exacerbate the existing thermal energy crisis.
Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA): RU utilizes the Odesa UAV swarm to pinpoint AD gaps for a follow-on Onyx or Kalibr strike against port infrastructure or modular energy units recently deployed by UA.
Intelligence gaps & collection requirements
[CRITICAL] Confirmation of "Courier" UGV deployment locations to assess if RU is shifting to UGV-led "meat assaults."
[HIGH] Impact assessment of ballistic launches from Kursk: Identify if targets are energy infrastructure or government C2 nodes.
[MEDIUM] Verification of the Julani-Putin meeting: If true, assess potential RU-Syrian trade-offs (e.g., munitions transfers or mercenary recruitment).
